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NFL · Sun, Oct 25 · 4:25 PM

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

O/U 48.5 · SPREAD Los Angeles Rams -3.5 · Allegiant Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Raiders +3.5
NFLvs Rams· -120

Raiders
+3.5

-120 · LOST · LAR 35 · LV 21

Rams

The pick & result

Published pick
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Lost
Final score
35-21

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 54 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 19 6:00 AM
Close
Sun 4:23 PM
Move
SPREADLos Angeles Rams -5.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (+105)−2
TOTAL47 (-110)50 (-108)+3
MONEYLINELos Angeles Rams -235Los Angeles Rams -185+50
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 19 6:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -5.5 (-110)47 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -235 · Las Vegas Raiders +200
Oct 19 12:01 PMLos Angeles Rams -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -250 · Las Vegas Raiders +200
Oct 19 12:31 PMLos Angeles Rams -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -235 · Las Vegas Raiders +200
Oct 19 1:31 PMLos Angeles Rams -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -250 · Las Vegas Raiders +200
Oct 19 3:31 PMLos Angeles Rams -5.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -235 · Las Vegas Raiders +200
Oct 19 4:01 PMLos Angeles Rams -5.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -250 · Las Vegas Raiders +200
Oct 19 5:15 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-118)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -225 · Las Vegas Raiders +185
Oct 19 5:25 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -225 · Las Vegas Raiders +188
Oct 19 5:45 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -225 · Las Vegas Raiders +188
Oct 19 5:55 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -225 · Las Vegas Raiders +185
Oct 19 6:16 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -225 · Las Vegas Raiders +188
Oct 19 7:06 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -225 · Las Vegas Raiders +185
Oct 19 7:47 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 19 10:24 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 20 12:25 AMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-110)47.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 20 6:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-118)47.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 20 7:32 AMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-105)47.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -220 · Las Vegas Raiders +180
Oct 20 10:01 AMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-105)47.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 20 2:46 PMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-110)48 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -220 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 20 4:47 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)48 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -220 · Las Vegas Raiders +180
Oct 20 6:47 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -220 · Las Vegas Raiders +180
Oct 20 9:47 PMLos Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 21 11:32 AMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-110)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Oct 21 6:19 PMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-112)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -210 · Las Vegas Raiders +175
Thu 1:59 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-120)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Thu 2:59 PMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-108)48.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Thu 6:23 PMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-108)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Thu 6:33 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)48 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Fri 6:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)48 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Fri 10:01 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Fri 11:01 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Fri 3:02 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-102)48 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Fri 4:03 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-102)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Fri 4:59 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+100)48 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Fri 5:59 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Fri 8:00 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Fri 11:00 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sat 9:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sat 12:02 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-120)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sat 12:32 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sat 1:32 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-120)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sat 3:02 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sat 4:02 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sat 5:03 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sun 4:45 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sun 8:22 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sun 9:45 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-102)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sun 10:30 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-102)48.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sun 1:22 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+100)49 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sun 3:13 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+100)49 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sun 3:23 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+100)49 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sun 3:43 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+100)49.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sun 3:53 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+100)49 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sun 3:55 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+100)49.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
CLOSESun 4:23 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (+105)50 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150

The read

The Rams walk into Allegiant Stadium at 2-4 and are still laying 3.5 on the road. That price is built on a team that has outgained most of its opponents. The problem is how much of that team won't be on the field in Las Vegas this afternoon.

Start with the receivers. Davante Adams is on IR with a ruptured hamstring after 480 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Adams is the one who carried this offense when Puka Nacua sat in Weeks 2 and 3. Nacua is questionable with a calf injury: limited Thursday, left practice with the injury, didn't practice Friday. The team is reportedly optimistic. That isn't the same as active. Without both, Matthew Stafford is throwing to Tyler Higbee, Kyren Williams, Konata Mumpfield and Alex Bachman.

The defense took the bigger hit. Kobie Turner and Poona Ford went to IR this week, Nate Landman is out with a concussion, Myles Garrett is still on IR, and Trent McDuffie didn't practice all week. That opens the middle of the field for Kirk Cousins (14 TD, 5 INT), Brock Bowers (382 yards and 3 TD in four games) and Michael Mayer.

Then the kicking. Failed field goals helped cost the Rams an overtime loss to Buffalo, Blake Grupe tore an ACL, and Brandon McManus debuts after about two months out of the league. Matt Gay's only miss this year is a 49-yarder at New England. In a game priced this tight, that counts.

Ignore the records. The Rams' 2-4 is close losses and bad kicks. The Raiders' three wins came against teams that are now 0-5, 0-6 and 2-4. Both teams losing close to Buffalo tells you nothing about this matchup.

The case against: Alaric Jackson is back at left tackle, Stafford is still Stafford, and the Raiders gave up 165, 189 and 148 rushing yards to New England, Kansas City and New Orleans. Las Vegas can't run the ball either (Ashton Jeanty has 313 yards on 98 carries), so Cousins has to win it through the air.

The half point isn't the reason. The reason is that the line still prices the full-strength Rams, and that team isn't playing today. If Nacua is ruled out at inactives, this only gets better. Give me the Raiders +3.5.

Injuries noted

Los Angeles Rams: Justin Dedich (IR-R) — Dedich (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Eddie Walls III (IR); Matthew Caldwell (IR) — The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Daniel Rickert (IR) — Rickert (knee) reverted to the Rams' injured reserve Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Keir Thomas II (Questionable) — The Rams released Thomas (groin) from IR with an injury settlement Thursday, per the NFL's transaction report.; Myles Garrett (IR) — Rams coach Sean McVay said Friday that Garrett (knee) could have his 21-day practice window opened next week, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Ronnie Rivers (IR) — The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday.; Terrance Ferguson (IR) — Ferguson (ankle), who is eligible to come off injured reserve next week, isn't expected to be ready at that time, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Trent McDuffie (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Groin); practice: DNP. McDuffie (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.; Blake Grupe (IR) — Rams head coach Sean McVay announced Monday that Grupe will miss the remainder of the season after sustaining a torn ACL in Sunday's 18-16 loss to the Cardinals, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports.; Davante Adams (IR) — Adams (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Kobie Turner (IR) — The Rams placed Turner (groin) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Poona Ford (IR) — The Rams placed Ford (triceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Nate Landman (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Concussion); practice: DNP. Landman (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times reports.; Puka Nacua (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Calf); practice: DNP. The Rams are optimistic that Nacua (calf), who is listed as questionable for Week 7, will play in Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Collier (IR) — Collier (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Raiders on Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Justin Pickett (IR); Chigozie Anusiem (IR) — The Raiders placed Anusiem (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Keyron Crawford (IR) — The Raiders placed Crawford (ankle) on injured reserve Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Brennan Jackson (IR) — ir; Carter Runyon (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Foot); practice: Full. Runyon (foot) was a full participant in practice Wednesday.; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: Full. Thornton (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Rams, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Jack Bech (IR) — The Raiders placed Bech (forearm) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Tyler Scott (Questionable) — The Raiders cut Scott (undisclosed) from the practice squad injured list Wednesday.; Mike Washington Jr. (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Foot); practice: DNP. Washington (foot/back) is considered a game-time decision for Sunday's contest against the Rams, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Quay Walker (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Chest); practice: Full. Walker (chest) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR

    7.21 Y/A

    Through 6 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 1794 passing yards, completed 65.9% of his passes and averaged 7.21 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.

  • Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV

    7.43 Y/A

    Through 6 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 1582 passing yards, completed 63.4% of his passes and averaged 7.43 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 14-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.

TRENCHES

  • LAR: 4.52 yards per rush attempt to LV's 2.98

    1.53 Y/C

    The Rams average 4.52 a carry and Las Vegas is at 2.98, which means the Raiders rarely stay ahead of the chains on the ground. Both teams sit close to last season, 4.69 for the Rams and 3.38 for the Raiders, so this gap is real and has held. The Raiders will lean on passing downs, and the Rams can keep a lead with the run. In close spots, the team that can actually run the ball has the easier path.

  • LAR: 112.7 rushing yards per game to LV's 79.2

    33.5 YPG

    The Rams run for about a third more than the Raiders each week. Both numbers sit close to last season's: Rams 126.6 then, 112.7 now, Raiders 77.5 then, 79.2 now. That makes this one of the steadier gaps on the board over 6 games. Expect the Rams to lean on the ground game in Las Vegas while the Raiders have rarely shown they can match it on the ground.

PASS RUSH

  • LV: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1.33

    1.17 SACKS

    LAR is at 1.33 sacks recorded per game over 6 games; LV is at 2.5 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • LAR @ LV carries a 48.5 market total

    48.5

    Five points above the 43.5 median across 13 games puts this in the upper tier of the slate. The market expects steady scoring from both sides, without a full shootout. It cracks if either offense settles for field goals instead of finishing drives. Red-zone results are the swing factor for a number in this range.

  • LV: 27 points per game to LAR's 22.5

    4.5 PPG

    LAR is at 22.5 points per game over 6 games; LV is at 27 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season LAR was at 30.5 over 17 games and LV at 14.2 over 17 games.

  • LAR: 23 points allowed per game to LV's 27

    4 PPG

    LAR is at 23 points allowed per game over 6 games; LV is at 27 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season LAR was at 20.4 over 17 games and LV at 25.4 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • LV: 1.67 takeaways per game to LAR's 1

    0.67 TO

    LAR is at 1 takeaways per game over 6 games; LV is at 1.67 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • LAR: 5.88 yards per play to LV's 5.33

    0.55 Y/P

    The Rams gain 5.88 yards a snap to the Raiders' 5.33, but the Raiders are up a full yard from last season's 4.35 while the Rams slipped from 6.15. In their last games, the Raiders had 4 plays of 20-plus yards with Kirk Cousins hitting Tre Tucker for a 44-yard score, and the Rams had just 1, a 43-yarder from Matthew Stafford to Puka Nacua. The gap is closing, so the Raiders can stay in this one more than last season's numbers would suggest.

RED ZONE

  • LAR: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to LV's 73.9%

    23.9 PP

    The Rams have let opponents score on 50% of red-zone trips over 6 games; the Raiders allow 73.9% over 6. Red-zone numbers rest on few possessions, so both can move fast with a couple of goal-line stands or busts. For now, Las Vegas has been the softer defense once the field shrinks. That leans toward Rams drives finishing in the end zone more often than Raiders drives do in this game.

MISMATCH

  • LAR: 112.7 rush yards a game to LV's 79.2

    112.7 VS 79.2

    The Rams run for 112.7 yards a game over six games, down from 126.6 last season, while Las Vegas manages 79.2, close to its 77.5. The Raiders' weak ground game matches last year, so their number looks real. Los Angeles can lean on the run to control tempo, while Vegas has to pass to move. That gap shapes clock control and play calling.

COVERAGE

  • LAR: 4.82 yards per play allowed to LV's 5.98

    1.17 Y/P

    The Rams allow 4.82 yards per play over 6 games, while Las Vegas allows 5.98 over the same span. Yards per play is less tied to game script than totals, so a gap this size over six games usually reflects a real difference in unit quality. For Rams at Raiders, Los Angeles' offence should move the ball more efficiently, which matters for spread and total thinking.

  • LAR: 167 passing yards allowed per game to LV's 237.3

    70.3 YPG

    The Rams give up 167 passing yards a game while Las Vegas gives up 237.3, both over 6 games. Alongside the Rams' lower yards per play, it reads as a solid defense more than a schedule quirk, though six games can still hide easy opponents. For Rams at Raiders, the Los Angeles passing attack has the friendlier matchup, which points toward Rams yardage props.

  • LAR: 32.9% third downs allowed to LV's 41.3%

    8.5 PP

    LAR is at 32.9% third downs allowed over 6 games; LV is at 41.3% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

REPLACEMENT

  • Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) is ir-r for LV

    IR-R

    Thornton is on injured reserve with a designation to return, and he has a hamstring injury that has him ruled out for Sunday's game against the Rams. The Raiders' other receivers absorb his targets. He is not close to helping this week, so treat Las Vegas as playing without him.

  • Carter Runyon (TE) is ir-r for LV

    IR-R

    The Raiders have ruled out Runyon with a foot injury for Sunday's game against the Rams. He is on injured reserve with a designation to return, so he is working toward a comeback but is not ready this week. The other Las Vegas tight ends handle the snaps.

  • Davante Adams (WR) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    The Rams placed Adams on injured reserve Tuesday with a hamstring injury, so he misses the game in Las Vegas. Losing a veteran receiver pushes more targets to the rest of the Rams' pass catchers. Bettors should expect a different target share in the Los Angeles passing game this week.

  • Terrance Ferguson (TE) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Ferguson is on injured reserve with an ankle injury. He becomes eligible to return next week, but he is not expected to be ready then. The Rams' other tight ends keep carrying the work in Las Vegas and likely beyond.

  • Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Garrett is on injured reserve with a knee injury, so he will not play at Las Vegas. Sean McVay said Friday, Oct 23, that Garrett's 21-day practice window could open next week. That is the first step toward a return, and the clock starts once he practices. For this game, the Rams rush the passer without him. A return is coming soon but has not happened yet.

  • Kobie Turner (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Turner went on injured reserve Wednesday, Oct 21, with a groin injury, so he is out against the Raiders. He joins Myles Garrett on IR, which leaves the Rams thin on the defensive line for this trip. The sheet does not name who fills his spot. With two linemen gone, a Las Vegas run game that might normally be ignored gets more interesting.

  • Poona Ford (DT) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    The Rams placed Ford (triceps) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 20.

  • Blake Grupe (PK) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Rams head coach Sean McVay announced Monday that Grupe will miss the remainder of the season after sustaining a torn ACL in Sunday's 18-16 loss to the Cardinals, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. Reported Oct 19.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Nate Landman

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • Quay Walker

    Questionable

    Chest · Full practice · Questionable

  • Trent McDuffie

    Questionable

    Groin · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Mike Washington Jr.

    Questionable

    Foot, Back · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Puka Nacua

    Questionable

    Calf · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Aaron Donald

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Byron Young

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Alaric Jackson

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Tonka Hemingway

    FP

    Full practice

  • Folorunso Fatukasi

    FP

    Full practice

  • Trey Zuhn III

    FP

    Full practice

  • Spencer Burford

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kolton Miller

    FP

    Full practice

  • Brock Bowers

    FP

    Full practice

  • Colby Parkinson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Josh Wallace

    FP

    Full practice

  • Segun Olubi

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • LAR: 288.7 team passing yards per game to LV's 263.5

    25.2 YPG

    LAR is at 288.7 team passing yards per game over 6 games; LV is at 263.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season LAR was at 268.1 over 17 games and LV at 167.7 over 17 games.

  • LAR (2-4) at LV (3-3)

    +3 PT GAP

    Both teams sit near even on points: the Rams are -3 at 2-4, the Raiders are exactly 0 at 3-3. Las Vegas has lost three straight and is 1-2 at home, while the Rams are 1-1 on the road and have lost two in a row. Neither team brings momentum. The Rams' margin suggests a few close losses, so the one-game gap in the records is smaller than it looks.

STREAK

  • LV has lost 3 straight

    L3

    LV carries a 3-game losing streak into this one, sitting at 3-3 on the season. They face LAR in LAR @ LV. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

AFTER GARY

  • LV +3.5 → +3.5

    GARY +0.41PP

    Gary's number was 3.5; the market closed at 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: caesars, draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    BROCK BOWERSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 70.5
    NFLLas Vegas Raiders· -112

    Brock Bowers
    Receiving Yards over 70.5

    -112 · CASHED · ACTUAL 73

    Las Vegas Raiders

    Las Vegas can't run the ball. Ashton Jeanty has 313 yards on 98 carries, and Mike Washington Jr. is a game-time decision with foot and back problems. So this offense goes through Kirk Cousins, and Cousins goes to Brock Bowers. He has 43 targets in four games and at least nine in every one of them. The rest of the passing game is thin. Dont'e Thornton Jr. is out, Jack Bech is on IR, and Jalen Nailor has six catches all year. When Cousins needs a third down, there's one name he looks for.

    Now look at who has to cover him. Nate Landman, the linebacker who would carry Bowers through the middle, is out with a concussion. Kobie Turner and Poona Ford went to IR this week, and Myles Garrett is still out. That front got zero sacks against Arizona with Turner and Ford in the lineup. Without them, Cousins gets time to wait for the seam to open. Trent McDuffie didn't practice all week either. If he sits or plays hurt, the Rams' safeties have to help outside, and that leaves Bowers working against a backup linebacker in the middle of the field.

    His quietest day this year was 70 yards against Buffalo, when he caught four of nine. That was his floor, and it lands right on this number. I expect Las Vegas to keep this close and throw 35 to 40 times. On that volume he clears it.

    What beats it: the Rams have been tough on tight ends all season, and Buffalo and Arizona both had good ones. If they bracket Bowers with a safety and dare Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer to beat them, Mayer can take a real share of the middle, the way he did with 95 yards last week.

  • GARY'S PICK
    KYREN WILLIAMSRECEPTIONS OVER 3.5
    NFLLos Angeles Rams· -120

    Kyren Williams
    Receptions over 3.5

    -120 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

    Los Angeles Rams

    Davante Adams is on IR, and he took 49 targets in six games. Puka Nacua is questionable with a calf and didn't practice Friday. Even if Nacua is active, nobody is running him 70 snaps on a sore calf the way the Rams did against Buffalo. Those throws have to go somewhere. Behind Nacua, Stafford has Tyler Higbee, Konata Mumpfield and Alex Bachman. Out of that group, the most reliable option underneath is the back.

    Kyren Williams caught 10 balls against Philadelphia and six against both Denver and Buffalo. He catches nearly everything thrown his way: 30 catches on 39 targets this year. Stafford still throws 40-plus times when the Rams fall behind or the run stalls, and with no Adams to win outside, more of those attempts end as checkdowns and screens. The Raiders give up big yardage to wide receivers, but the Rams don't have the wideouts this week to take advantage of it. That leaves the short throws, and four catches is all this asks for.

    This fits how I see the game. A Rams offense with no Adams and a limited Nacua moves the ball in small pieces, and Kyren is one of those pieces. It's also why I like Las Vegas getting points.

    What beats it: Blake Corum took more of the work last week, and Kyren played only 42 of 58 snaps against Arizona and caught three passes. If McVay keeps splitting the backfield, or if Nacua is fully healthy and soaks up a dozen targets again, Kyren can finish on three catches.

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