Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 43.5 · SPREAD Denver Broncos -4.5 · State Farm Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Arizona Cardinals +4.5 -112
- Published odds
- -112
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 30-16
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 69 moves| Market | Opened Oct 19 6:00 AM | Close Sun 4:03 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Denver Broncos -4 (-110) | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 43 (-110) | 44 (-110) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Denver Broncos -210 | Denver Broncos -225 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 19 6:00 AM | Denver Broncos -4 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175 |
| Oct 19 8:31 AM | Denver Broncos -4 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Oct 19 11:31 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 19 12:01 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 44 (-108) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Oct 19 2:01 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 44 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Oct 19 4:01 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 19 5:01 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 19 5:15 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Oct 19 5:35 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 19 9:10 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 19 9:17 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 20 12:25 AM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 20 6:00 AM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 20 7:32 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-120) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 20 8:38 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-112) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 20 11:44 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 20 12:45 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-110) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 20 3:47 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Oct 21 10:22 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Thu 11:58 AM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Thu 12:58 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Thu 1:29 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Thu 1:59 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Thu 2:59 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Thu 5:23 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Thu 6:33 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Thu 7:34 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-112) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Thu 8:04 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Fri 10:01 AM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Fri 12:02 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Fri 2:02 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Fri 4:03 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-120) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Fri 5:59 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Fri 8:00 PM | Denver Broncos -4 (-120) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Fri 11:00 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 6:00 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Sat 10:32 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sat 12:32 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 1:02 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-120) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 1:32 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 2:32 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-120) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 3:02 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 3:32 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Sat 4:02 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 4:32 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Sat 6:03 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sat 7:03 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Sun 12:34 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Sun 7:31 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-112) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Sun 8:12 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 8:32 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-112) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 8:52 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 9:11 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-112) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 9:21 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-112) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 10:10 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 10:20 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-120) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sun 10:30 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Sun 11:00 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 11:10 AM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-110) | 43.5 (-108) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Sun 12:21 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Sun 1:22 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Sun 2:33 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 2:43 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Sun 2:53 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 3:13 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Sun 3:43 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| CLOSESun 4:03 PM | Denver Broncos -4.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Denver Broncos -225 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
The read
At State Farm Stadium, on the Sunday Larry Fitzgerald's No. 11 is retired at halftime, a 4-2 Denver team is a 4.5-point road favorite over 2-4 Arizona. The ceremony won't decide this game, and neither will Denver's record.
Denver's wins have come from its defense taking the ball away, not from moving it. Jacksonville (392 yards to 268) is the only opponent Denver has outgained. Seattle had 353 yards to Denver's 168, turned it over 3 times and still took the game to overtime. The Rams piled up 482 yards and lost 30-26, undone by a defensive touchdown and a 1-for-4 day in the red zone. Against the Chargers, 5 Denver drives started in Chargers territory. The pass rush is real, but Denver can't count on 3 takeaways a week, which is what it got in each of the last two games.
The offense is what limits Denver's margin. Bo Nix has 1,049 yards on 189 attempts, and Denver has topped 23 points once, in a game that included a defensive touchdown. Since Payton took play-calling back, Denver has gained 224 and 168 yards. Its four wins came by 3, 4, 6 and 7 points.
Arizona's danger is up front. Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaiah Adams are on IR and Jon Gaines is out, so Hayden Conner makes a first career start at right guard against a rush that gets Jonathon Cooper back. If Denver covers, that's how: sacks, turnovers, short fields. That risk is why this is a small play.
Denver's secondary is thin, with Surtain unlikely and Hufanga out. Arizona's offense runs through Trey McBride and short throws, though, so missing a top corner costs less here. Losing Jeremiyah Love doesn't hurt Arizona much either; the Cardinals ran for 120 yards without him last week.
This should be a low-scoring game, and a Denver win by 3 or 4, which still cashes this ticket, is a very live outcome. Give me the points.
Injuries noted
Denver Broncos: Caleb Lohner (IR-R) — Lohner (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos on Sunday with a designation to return, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports.; Nick Gargiulo (PUP-R) — Gargiulo (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Michael Deiter (IR) — ir; Matt Henningsen (IR) — ir; Levelle Bailey (IR) — Bailey (leg) reverted to the Broncos' injured-reserve list Friday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; Frank Crum (IR-R) — Crum (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Jonah Coleman (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Ankle); practice: Full. The Broncos activated Coleman (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday but continue to list him as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Pat Bryant (IR) — Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.; Pat Surtain II (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Ankle); practice: Limited. Surtain (ankle) isn't likely to play Sunday at Arizona, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Talanoa Hufanga (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. Hufanga (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.; Tyler Badie (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Thumb); practice: DNP. The Broncos placed Badie (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Jonah Elliss (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. The Broncos placed Elliss (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner (IR-R) — Conner (foot) is close to practicing, but the Cardinals aren't expected to open his 21-day evaluation window this week, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports.; Tip Reiman (PUP-R) — The Cardinals moved Reiman (ankle) from the active/PUP list to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Joey Blount (IR) — ir; Zachary Carter (IR-R) — The Cardinals placed Carter (knee) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Kaleb Proctor (IR); Chase Bisontis (IR) — ir; Trey Benson (IR) — Benson (knee) reverted to the Cardinals' injured reserve list Tuesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Jameson Geers (IR) — ir; Isaiah Adams (IR) — The Cardinals placed Adams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Will Johnson (IR) — The Cardinals placed Johnson (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Andrew Wingard (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Knee); practice: DNP. Wingard (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Broncos, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Hunter Long (IR) — The Cardinals placed Long (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Paris Johnson Jr. (IR) — The Cardinals placed Johnson (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Jeremiyah Love (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. Head coach Mike LaFleur said Friday that Love (ankle) won't play Sunday against the Broncos, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Carson Beck (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Back); practice: DNP. Beck (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Broncos, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Budda Baker (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Groin); practice: Limited. Baker (groin/illness) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Broncos, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Max Melton (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: DNP. Melton (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Broncos, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Walter Nolen III (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. Nolen (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Broncos, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Jon Gaines II (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Knee); practice: DNP. Gaines (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Broncos, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Darius Robinson (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Back); practice: Limited. questionable
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI
5.67 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 1328 passing yards, completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 5.67 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN
5.55 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 1049 passing yards, completed 60.3% of his passes and averaged 5.55 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
TRENCHES
ARI: 120.8 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 139.8
19 YPGDEN is at 139.8 rushing yards allowed per game over 6 games; ARI is at 120.8 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
PASS RUSH
DEN: 3 sacks recorded per game to ARI's 2.33
0.67 SACKSDenver gets 3 sacks a game, and Arizona gets 2.33, both over six games. That's about one extra sack every couple of games, a modest edge. Sack totals depend on how often opponents drop back, so a defense facing teams playing from behind gets more chances. In this game, it points to more pressure on Arizona's quarterback, which matters for sack props and drive-killing negative plays.
PACE & SCRIPT
DEN: 20.8 points allowed per game to ARI's 29.7
8.8 PPGArizona is allowing 29.7 a game and gave up 28.7 last season, so this defense is consistently leaky. Denver allows 20.8, a bit worse than last season's 18.3, but still a solid unit. That gap over six games and seventeen games looks durable. At home, Arizona has to outscore people, and Denver's offense should find room.
ARI: 67.3 offensive plays per game to DEN's 57.3
10 PLAYSArizona runs 67.3 plays a game to Denver's 57.3, and Denver ran 64.2 last season, so Denver's drop is the bigger change. Six games is enough to take it seriously, but some move back toward last season's pace is likely. If Arizona dictates tempo at home, the game has more snaps, which matters most for totals and volume props.
ARI: 32:05 time of possession per game to DEN's 28:46
3:20 TOPDEN is at 28:46 time of possession per game over 6 games; ARI is at 32:05 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season DEN was at 31:14 over 17 games and ARI at 29:48 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
ARI: 0 fumbles lost per game to DEN's 0.5
0.5 FUMDEN is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 6 games; ARI is at 0 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season DEN was at 0.35 over 17 games and ARI at 0.59 over 17 games.
DEN: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to ARI's 1
0.5 INTDEN is at 0.5 interceptions thrown per game over 6 games; ARI is at 1 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season DEN was at 0.65 over 17 games and ARI at 0.65 over 17 games.
RED ZONE
DEN: 52.9% red-zone scoring allowed to ARI's 71.4%
18.5 PPDEN is at 52.9% red-zone scoring allowed over 6 games; ARI is at 71.4% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
ARI: 3.83 red-zone trips per game to DEN's 3
0.83 TRIPSDEN is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 6 games; ARI is at 3.83 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season DEN was at 3.35 over 17 games and ARI at 3.59 over 17 games.
MISMATCH
DEN: 20.8 points allowed a game to ARI's 29.7
20.8 VS 29.7Arizona's defense allows 29.7 points a game over six games, close to 28.7 last season, while Denver gives up 20.8, up from 18.3. The Broncos can score against a defense that has been leaky for two seasons, and Arizona has to win a shootout. With Arizona matching last year, that number looks real. Denver's offense facing that defense shapes the total.
COVERAGE
DEN: 5.05 yards per play allowed to ARI's 6.05
1 Y/PDenver allows 5.05 yards per snap over 6 games; Arizona allows 6.05 over 6. That full yard means the Cardinals defense has been much easier to move on. Six games is a modest sample and the opponents faced are not on the sheet, so both numbers can shift as the schedule evens out. For this game, Denver's offence looks like the side with the easier path to sustained drives, and the Broncos defense should make Arizona earn more of its yards.
REPLACEMENT
James Conner (RB) is ir-r for ARI
IR-RConner is on injured reserve with a designation to return, nursing a foot injury. As of Oct 13 he was close to practicing, but Arizona was not expected to open his 21-day window that week. He remains out against Denver, so the Cardinals' backfield work stays with the backups for now.
Tyler Badie (RB) is on injured reserve for DEN
IRDenver placed Badie on injured reserve Saturday with a thumb injury, so he misses at least the trip to Arizona. His backfield snaps go to the other Broncos running backs. This is a depth loss more than a game-changer.
Jonah Elliss (LB) is on injured reserve for DEN
IRDenver put linebacker Jonah Elliss on injured reserve Saturday with an ankle injury, so he misses the Arizona game and at least the next few weeks. The sheet does not say when he got hurt or who takes his snaps. A bettor looking at the Cardinals offense should find out who replaces him in the Broncos' linebacker rotation, because that is where a gap would appear.
PRACTICE REPORT
Jeremiyah Love
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Walter Nolen III
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Talanoa Hufanga
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Jon Gaines II
OutKnee, Ankle · Did not practice · Out
Andrew Wingard
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Max Melton
QuestionableKnee · Did not practice · Questionable
Jonah Coleman
QuestionableAnkle · Full practice · Questionable
Budda Baker
QuestionableGroin, Illness · Limited practice · Questionable
Carson Beck
QuestionableBack · Did not practice · Questionable
Darius Robinson
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
Pat Surtain II
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
Devin Duvernay
DNPDid not practice
Jedrick Wills Jr.
FPFull practice
Josh Sweat
FPFull practice
Jaylen Waddle
FPFull practice
Isaac Seumalo
FPFull practice
Zach Allen
FPFull practice
Riley Moss
FPFull practice
Garrett Williams
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
DEN (4-2) at ARI (2-4)
-41 PT GAPDenver is 4-2 despite being outscored by 11, so this record flatters the Broncos, and they are only 1-2 on the road. Arizona is 2-4 and -52, winless at home in two games, though it won its last time out. Denver's two-game win streak has come without a positive margin to support it. The Cardinals' point total is the bigger red flag, so neither side's record tells the full story here.
DEN: 44.8 penalty yards per game to ARI's 66
21.2 YDSDEN is at 44.8 penalty yards per game over 6 games; ARI is at 66 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season DEN was at 67.6 over 17 games and ARI at 49.5 over 17 games.
DEN has 3 more days of rest
10d vs 7dDenver comes off a mini-bye with 10 days, and Arizona is on a normal week. Three extra days is a small cushion: a bit more recovery and install time, with travel on the Broncos' side. It's a minor note, best used as a tiebreaker.
AFTER GARY
ARI +4.5 → +4.5
NOW +1.37PPGary's number was 4.5; the market closed at 4.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: caesars, draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBO NIXPASSING YARDS UNDER 220.5
Denver's offense has gotten more conservative since Sean Payton took play-calling back. Bo Nix threw for 123 yards against the Chargers and 107 against Seattle, with 27 attempts in each game. He has 1,049 yards across six games, so 220.5 asks for his second-best game of the season.
The way this game sets up keeps him under. Denver is a road favorite that wins with defense and field position. If the pass rush gets home against an Arizona line starting Hayden Conner at right guard, Denver plays with short fields and a lead. Then Payton leans on J.K. Dobbins and the clock. Nix also has no receiver demanding the ball. Jaylen Waddle has been quiet on the road, and Courtland Sutton catches one to three balls a week.
What beats it: Arizona's pass defense has been generous, with 16 touchdown passes allowed. Its back end could be without Budda Baker and Max Melton, with Andrew Wingard already out. If Arizona jumps ahead and Denver has to throw 40 times, the 288 yards against Jacksonville show Nix can get there. I'll take the under.
- GARY'S PICKTREY MCBRIDERECEPTIONS OVER 6.5
Arizona's passing game runs through Trey McBride. He has drawn double-digit targets in most weeks, he plays nearly every snap, and his lowest catch total this season is seven. Jacoby Brissett throws close to 40 times a game and goes to his tight end when the pocket gets crowded.
The pocket will get crowded. The pass rush is the best part of this Denver team, and Arizona is down three offensive linemen, with Hayden Conner making his first start at right guard. That pushes Brissett toward quick throws over the middle, which is where McBride lives. Denver has given up 30 catches on 44 targets to tight ends, and it plays without Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Jonah Elliss, two players who would spend time on him.
What beats it: Arizona ran it 33 times last week without Jeremiyah Love. If the Cardinals get a lead and grind the clock, McBride gets fewer chances. Denver could also bracket him and dare Michael Wilson and Kendrick Bourne to beat them. At -140 I'm paying for his floor, and seven catches is all this ticket needs.
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