Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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• GARY'S PICK

  JAYLEN WARRENRECEIVING YARDS OVER 26.5

  NFLPittsburgh Steelers· -117

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 28

  GARY'S TAKE

  Jaylen Warren over 26.5 receiving yards at -117. Pittsburgh comes into Tampa with almost no receivers. Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson are on injured reserve, Ben Skowronek is out, and DK Metcalf missed Friday's practice with an illness. Pat Freiermuth is carrying a calf issue. Outside of Germie Bernard, the rest of the receiver room is practice squad call-ups. Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out on time, and his most dependable answer this year has been his running back. Warren leads the Steelers in receiving through five games, he has drawn four to six targets in every one of them, and he has been on the field for nearly every offensive snap the last three weeks. His receiving totals this season run from the high 20s up to the 87 he put on Indianapolis. The matchup pushes the ball his way. Tampa ranks second in the league against the run, so the cleanest way for Pittsburgh to get Warren into space is to throw it to him in the flat. Larry Foote said as much this week: "they're just dumping it to him." Tampa's linebacker play has been shaky, Alex Anzalone struggled badly to wrap up early in the season, and Antoine Winfield Jr. is out at safety. Warren makes the first man miss, and one screen that breaks covers this number on its own. The case against is real. Tampa has kept running backs to short gains after the catch, allowing 27 catches for 178 yards to the position across five games. Rico Dowdle is slated to return from a toe injury, and in the first two weeks with Dowdle active, Warren's snaps dropped. This is also a five-game sample under a new staff; last season Warren was a much smaller piece of the passing game. If Metcalf and Freiermuth both play full games, the targets could spread out. I still think a thin receiver room against a stout run front makes Warren the outlet all afternoon, and 26.5 asks for three or four ordinary catches.

  ×

  Jaylen Warren
  Receiving Yards over 26.5

  -117 · CASHED · ACTUAL 28

  Pittsburgh Steelers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Jaylen Warren over 26.5 receiving yards at -117.

  Pittsburgh comes into Tampa with almost no receivers. Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson are on injured reserve, Ben Skowronek is out, and DK Metcalf missed Friday's practice with an illness. Pat Freiermuth is carrying a calf issue. Outside of Germie Bernard, the rest of the receiver room is practice squad call-ups. Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out on time, and his most dependable answer this year has been his running back. Warren leads the Steelers in receiving through five games, he has drawn four to six targets in every one of them, and he has been on the field for nearly every offensive snap the last three weeks. His receiving totals this season run from the high 20s up to the 87 he put on Indianapolis.

  The matchup pushes the ball his way. Tampa ranks second in the league against the run, so the cleanest way for Pittsburgh to get Warren into space is to throw it to him in the flat. Larry Foote said as much this week: "they're just dumping it to him." Tampa's linebacker play has been shaky, Alex Anzalone struggled badly to wrap up early in the season, and Antoine Winfield Jr. is out at safety. Warren makes the first man miss, and one screen that breaks covers this number on its own.

  The case against is real. Tampa has kept running backs to short gains after the catch, allowing 27 catches for 178 yards to the position across five games. Rico Dowdle is slated to return from a toe injury, and in the first two weeks with Dowdle active, Warren's snaps dropped. This is also a five-game sample under a new staff; last season Warren was a much smaller piece of the passing game. If Metcalf and Freiermuth both play full games, the targets could spread out. I still think a thin receiver room against a stout run front makes Warren the outlet all afternoon, and 26.5 asks for three or four ordinary catches.

• GARY'S PICK

  JALON DANIELSRUSHING YARDS UNDER 32.5

  NFLTampa Bay Buccaneers· -113

  LOST · ACTUAL 39

  GARY'S TAKE

  Jalon Daniels under 32.5 rushing yards at -113. Daniels can run, and nobody is arguing otherwise. The undrafted rookie went for 55 yards on eight carries against Green Bay in his first start. The sample behind him is thin, though: two full starts and a few snaps of relief. In Dallas, when Tampa found a plan that worked, it handed the ball to Bucky Irving 21 times and Daniels ran seven times for 23 yards. This offense wants its rookie playing short and safe and letting Irving carry the load, and that is exactly what I expect again in his third start. Pittsburgh is also the wrong defense for a quarterback looking to pad his rushing total. The Steelers have given up 56 rushing yards to quarterbacks across five games combined, and that group includes Drake Maye and Deshaun Watson. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith set hard edges, and against an undrafted rookie I expect Pittsburgh to rush to contain and keep him in the pocket. If Tampa wins this game the way I think it can, the last few snaps will be kneel-downs that take yards off his total. The risk is pressure turning into scrambles. Tampa's line gives up sacks at one of the worst rates in the league, and when Watt flushes a quarterback with Daniels' legs, a broken play can go for 20 yards in a hurry. If Tampa falls behind and needs Daniels to create, his carries climb. One long scramble beats this ticket. I'm siding with a run-first game plan built around Irving and a Pittsburgh front that has kept every quarterback it has faced quiet on the ground.

  ×

  Jalon Daniels
  Rushing Yards under 32.5

  -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 39

  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Jalon Daniels under 32.5 rushing yards at -113.

  Daniels can run, and nobody is arguing otherwise. The undrafted rookie went for 55 yards on eight carries against Green Bay in his first start. The sample behind him is thin, though: two full starts and a few snaps of relief. In Dallas, when Tampa found a plan that worked, it handed the ball to Bucky Irving 21 times and Daniels ran seven times for 23 yards. This offense wants its rookie playing short and safe and letting Irving carry the load, and that is exactly what I expect again in his third start.

  Pittsburgh is also the wrong defense for a quarterback looking to pad his rushing total. The Steelers have given up 56 rushing yards to quarterbacks across five games combined, and that group includes Drake Maye and Deshaun Watson. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith set hard edges, and against an undrafted rookie I expect Pittsburgh to rush to contain and keep him in the pocket. If Tampa wins this game the way I think it can, the last few snaps will be kneel-downs that take yards off his total.

  The risk is pressure turning into scrambles. Tampa's line gives up sacks at one of the worst rates in the league, and when Watt flushes a quarterback with Daniels' legs, a broken play can go for 20 yards in a hurry. If Tampa falls behind and needs Daniels to create, his carries climb. One long scramble beats this ticket. I'm siding with a run-first game plan built around Irving and a Pittsburgh front that has kept every quarterback it has faced quiet on the ground.

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