Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Los Angeles Rams -12.5 · SoFi Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Arizona Cardinals +12.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 18-16
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 40 moves| Market | Opened Oct 11 11:41 PM | Close Oct 18 4:04 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | Holds |
| TOTAL | 52 (-110) | 51 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Los Angeles Rams -750 | Los Angeles Rams -800 | −50 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 11 11:41 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 12 5:46 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 12 8:19 PM | Los Angeles Rams -13 (-108) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 13 12:50 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-120) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 13 6:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -13 (-108) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 13 8:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-118) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -900 · Arizona Cardinals +625 |
| Oct 13 9:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -13 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 13 11:01 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -900 · Arizona Cardinals +650 |
| Oct 13 12:01 PM | Los Angeles Rams -13 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +625 |
| Oct 13 1:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -700 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 13 2:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 13 6:32 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 13 7:25 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 14 12:34 PM | Los Angeles Rams -13 (-108) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 14 7:35 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 14 9:24 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 14 11:39 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 15 6:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +550 |
| Oct 15 9:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 15 1:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-115) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 15 5:03 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 16 6:01 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 16 11:01 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 16 12:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 16 2:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 16 3:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 52 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 16 4:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 16 7:03 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 16 11:03 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 17 1:03 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 17 3:33 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -750 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 17 7:33 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 17 8:03 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +575 |
| Oct 18 7:31 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 18 7:41 AM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 18 12:13 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 18 1:32 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 18 3:13 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 18 3:24 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51 (-112) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| Oct 18 3:44 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
| CLOSEOct 18 4:04 PM | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -800 · Arizona Cardinals +600 |
The read
The Cardinals limp into SoFi Stadium on a four-game losing streak after a 45-21 beating from Detroit. Waiting for them is a Rams team still stinging from Monday night's overtime loss to Buffalo. Los Angeles is the better team and should win this division game. Laying 12.5 is a different question.
The Rams haven't been blowing teams out. Their only lopsided win was 28-6 over the Giants after Jaxson Dart got hurt, and the other was a 24-20 comeback in Philadelphia. Asking a 2-3 team to win by nearly two touchdowns is already a lot. This one also has a kicking problem. Los Angeles is 5/9 on field goals, lost the Bills game partly on a blocked kick, and debuts Blake Grupe today after a late signing. Drives that stall into field goals, or into nothing, are how big favorites win without covering.
This price is also a reaction to Arizona's last two weeks. A four-game skid capped by a national-TV blowout is exactly when a bad team gets the most points. The full season looks different. Arizona fell 36-30 to the unbeaten 49ers and 36-24 to the Giants, and both losses land inside this number. The Cardinals keep scoring when trailing, too: 30 against San Francisco, 24 against New York and 21 against Detroit. Jacoby Brissett throws a lot, Trey McBride eats underneath, and Arizona's kicker can connect from long range.
The Rams' defense is short-handed as well. Trent McDuffie and Kam Curl are both questionable, Myles Garrett is out, and the Rams' interior linemen haven't recorded a sack. That isn't a unit built to choke off a short passing game for a full afternoon.
The risk is real. Arizona's secondary is a mess, Budda Baker may sit, and Seattle and Detroit both ran away from this defense. If Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams and Puka Nacua turn drives into touchdowns, this gets out of hand. But the Cardinals don't need to win or even play well. They need to stay within 12.5, and the Rams' shaky kicking and banged-up secondary make that more likely than the number suggests.
Injuries noted
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner (IR-R) — Conner (foot) is close to practicing, but the Cardinals aren't expected to open his 21-day evaluation window this week, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports.; Tip Reiman (PUP-R) — The Cardinals moved Reiman (ankle) from the active/PUP list to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Joey Blount (IR) — ir; Zachary Carter (IR-R) — The Cardinals placed Carter (knee) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Kaleb Proctor (IR); Chase Bisontis (IR) — ir; Trey Benson (IR) — Benson (knee) reverted to the Cardinals' injured reserve list Tuesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Jameson Geers (IR) — ir; Isaiah Adams (IR) — The Cardinals placed Adams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Kitan Crawford (Questionable) — The Cardinals activated Crawford (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Will Johnson (IR) — The Cardinals placed Johnson (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Andrew Wingard (Out) — Wingard (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.; Hunter Long (IR) — The Cardinals placed Long (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Paris Johnson Jr. (IR) — The Cardinals placed Johnson (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Wydett Williams Jr. (Out) — Coach Mike LaFleur has ruled out Williams (concussion) for Sunday's game against the Rams, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.; Jeremiyah Love (Out) — Love (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at the Rams, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Budda Baker (Questionable) — Baker (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.; Zaven Collins (Questionable) — Collins (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.; Blake Gillikin (Questionable) — questionable
Los Angeles Rams: Justin Dedich (IR-R) — Dedich (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Eddie Walls III (IR); Matthew Caldwell (IR) — The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Daniel Rickert (IR) — Rickert (knee) reverted to the Rams' injured reserve Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Keir Thomas II (IR) — ir; Myles Garrett (IR) — Head coach Sean McVay told reporters Tuesday that Garrett (knee) will not return to practice this week and will not play against the Cardinals on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Ronnie Rivers (IR) — The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday.; Terrance Ferguson (IR) — Ferguson (ankle) is expected to be ready to return after his four-game stint on injured reserve, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Alaric Jackson (Reserve-Sus) — Jackson's suspension for an act of unsportsmanlike conduct during Monday's game versus the Bills has been reduced to one game, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kam Curl (Questionable) — Curl (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.; Trent McDuffie (Questionable) — McDuffie (groin) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR
7.28 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 1572 passing yards, completed 64.4% of his passes and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI
5.58 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 1110 passing yards, completed 66.3% of his passes and averaged 5.58 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
TRENCHES
LAR: 116.8 rushing yards per game to ARI's 91.6
25.2 YPGARI is at 91.6 rushing yards per game over 5 games; LAR is at 116.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season ARI was at 93.1 over 17 games and LAR at 126.6 over 17 games.
LAR: 4.5 yards per rush attempt to ARI's 3.74
0.76 Y/CARI is at 3.74 yards per rush attempt over 5 games; LAR is at 4.5 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season ARI was at 4.25 over 17 games and LAR at 4.69 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
LAR: 1.4 sacks taken per game to ARI's 2.4
1 SACKSARI is at 2.4 sacks taken per game over 5 games; LAR is at 1.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season ARI was at 3.69 over 17 games and LAR at 1.77 over 17 games.
ARI: 2.2 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1.6
0.6 SACKSARI is at 2.2 sacks recorded per game over 5 games; LAR is at 1.6 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
PACE & SCRIPT
LAR: 24 points allowed per game to ARI's 32.4
8.4 PPGARI is at 32.4 points allowed per game over 5 games; LAR is at 24 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season ARI was at 28.7 over 17 games and LAR at 20.4 over 17 games.
ARI @ LAR carries a 51.5 market total
51.5This total sits comfortably above the slate's middle, so the market expects a game with more possessions ending in points than usual. It needs both offenses to produce for the number to land. If one side controls the ball and shortens the game, scoring can fall short of a price set this high.
TURNOVERS
ARI: 1.4 takeaways per game to LAR's 1
0.4 TOARI is at 1.4 takeaways per game over 5 games; LAR is at 1 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
LAR: 6.04 yards per play to ARI's 4.42
1.62 Y/PThe Rams gain a first down's worth of extra yardage every six or so snaps compared to Arizona, and that gap is mostly about the Cardinals falling off: 4.42 now after 5.18 last season, while the Rams sit close to last year's 6.15. Arizona's last game had only 3 plays of 20+ yards, all Jacoby Brissett throws. Five games is a decent read, so expect the Rams to control field position and the Cardinals to need long, mistake-free drives to keep pace.
RED ZONE
LAR: 64.7% red-zone scoring allowed to ARI's 76.5%
11.8 PPARI is at 76.5% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; LAR is at 64.7% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
MISMATCH
LAR: 307.6 pass yards a game to ARI's 209.6
307.6 VS 209.6The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: ARI threw for 209.6 passing yards a game over 5 games; LAR threw for 307.6 passing yards a game over 5 games this season. Last season ARI was at 232.6 over 17 games and LAR at 268.1 over 17 games.
COVERAGE
LAR: 4.82 yards per play allowed to ARI's 6.24
1.42 Y/PThe Rams allow 4.82 yards per play and Arizona allows 6.24, both over five games. That is a real gap in how hard each defense makes it to gain ground. The sheet doesn't say who either side has played, so part of it may be opponents. Arizona's offense faces the tougher unit here, and the Cardinals' defense is the one more likely to give up chunk gains.
LAR: 156.8 passing yards allowed per game to ARI's 236.8
80 YPGThe Rams allow 156.8 passing yards a game and Arizona allows 236.8, both over five games. The sheet doesn't say which quarterbacks either side faced, or whether teams ran on the Rams instead, so the gap may be partly schedule and game script. Arizona's passing game faces the stingier defense, and the Rams' passing attack has the easier matchup.
LAR: 32.8% third downs allowed to ARI's 42.1%
9.3 PPThe Rams allow conversions on 32.8% of third downs through 5 games, while Arizona is at 42.1%. Third-down rates can be noisy since they hinge on a few plays per game. Arizona letting opponents extend drives that often is a concern for them, and the Rams' stinginess means the Cardinals offense likely needs to stay ahead of the chains.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
LAR lead the series with ARI since 2025
2-0 SERIESThe Rams have beaten Arizona twice since last season, both by wide margins: 45-17 in Arizona on Dec 7 and 37-20 at home on Jan 4. The Rams put up 37 or more in each game while holding Arizona to 20 or fewer. Two late-season results is a short sample, and nothing here shows what either team looks like now. For bettors, the history points to a one-way matchup, so the useful test is whether Arizona has closed that gap this season.
REPLACEMENT
James Conner (RB) is ir-r for ARI
IR-RConner is on injured reserve with a foot injury and is close to practicing, but Arizona is not expected to open his 21-day return window this week, reported Oct 13. That rules him out against the Rams. The Cardinals backfield stays with the backs who have been carrying it, so do not expect him this week.
Alaric Jackson (OT) is reserve-sus for LAR
RESERVE-SUSJackson, a Rams offensive tackle, had his suspension for unsportsmanlike conduct in the Bills game cut to one game, reported Oct 15. He misses this one against Arizona and should be back after. For this game, the Rams line plays with a fill-in at tackle.
Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR
IRGarrett is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Sean McVay said Tuesday he will not practice this week or play against the Cardinals on Sunday. The Rams lose a premier pass rusher for this game. That gives the Arizona quarterback a cleaner pocket and makes Rams sack totals harder to count on.
Terrance Ferguson (TE) is on injured reserve for LAR
IRFerguson, a Rams tight end, is on injured reserve with an ankle injury and is expected to be ready after his four-game stint, reported Oct 7. Whether that lines up with the Arizona game depends on when the stint ends, so check his status before betting on any Rams tight end.
Hunter Long (TE) is on injured reserve for ARI
IRArizona placed Long, a tight end, on injured reserve with a knee injury on Oct 6, so he is out against the Rams. His snaps and the few targets a backup tight end gets go to the rest of the Cardinals tight end room.
Paris Johnson Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for ARI
IRArizona placed Johnson, an offensive tackle, on injured reserve with a biceps injury on Oct 7, so he misses the Rams game. The Cardinals start a backup tackle, and with Garrett also out for the Rams, the pass-rush matchup on that side is less lopsided than it could have been.
Isaiah Adams (G) is on injured reserve for ARI
IRThe Cardinals placed Adams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 11.
PRACTICE REPORT
Jeremiyah Love
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Andrew Wingard
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Wydett Williams Jr.
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Blake Gillikin
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
Kam Curl
QuestionableAnkle · Did not practice · Questionable
Zaven Collins
QuestionableHip · Did not practice · Questionable
Trent McDuffie
QuestionableGroin · Did not practice · Questionable
Kitan Crawford
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
Budda Baker
QuestionableNot injury related - resting player, Groin · Did not practice · Questionable
Tyler Higbee
DNPDid not practice
Byron Young
DNPDid not practice
Davis Allen
LPLimited practice
Carson Beck
LPCoach's Decision · Limited practice
Devin Duvernay
LPLimited practice
Josh Sweat
FPFull practice
Nate Landman
FPFull practice
Omar Speights
FPFull practice
Keagen Trost
FPFull practice
Colby Parkinson
FPFull practice
Isaac Seumalo
FPFull practice
Alex Bachman
FPFull practice
Josh Wallace
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
ARI (1-4) at LAR (2-3), a division game
+53 PT GAPArizona has dropped four straight and sits at -54, so its 1-4 is earned. The Rams at 2-3 are basically even at -1, which points to a team close to average with a few bad breaks. LA is only 1-2 at home, so home field has not added much. The point differential gap is the clearer signal here than either team's record or venue split.
STREAK
ARI has lost 4 straight
L4Arizona won its opener and has lost four straight since, now 1-4. That's a slide over most of the season so far, though the sheet doesn't show the opponents or the scores. A road trip to the Rams in a division game is a tough place to turn it around, and the market will likely lean the same way, so look at whether the number has gone further than four losses justify.
TEAM RECORD
NFC WEST game: ARI 0-2, LAR 0-1 in the division
DIVISIONArizona has lost both of its NFC West games, and the Rams lost their only one. Two games and one game are tiny samples, so this split says almost nothing about how this matchup plays out. Lean on the overall form and the matchup more than the division record.
AFTER GARY
ARI +12.5 → +12.5
NO MOVEGary's number was 12.5; the same book now shows 12.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKKYREN WILLIAMSRECEPTIONS OVER 2.5
I'm laying -143 on Kyren Williams over 2.5 receptions. The price is steep, but his role has changed and the number hasn't fully caught up.
The Rams don't have a third receiver they trust. Konata Mumpfield barely played against Buffalo, Terrance Ferguson is on injured reserve, and Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington have done almost nothing. That gap has been filled by Williams. He caught 6 passes in Denver, 10 in Philadelphia and 6 against the Bills, and he drew 28 targets across those three games. He's now a designed part of the passing game.
The matchup fits. Arizona sits in soft zone most of the day, leaves room between its linebackers and safeties, and lets teams complete short throws because it trusts its tacklers. That gives Matthew Stafford easy outs to his back. David Quessenberry also makes his first start in nearly three years at left tackle. When the blind side is uncertain, a quick throw to the back is the safest play in the book. Three catches is a low bar for a player getting this kind of volume.
There is real risk on the other side. Arizona has allowed only 13 catches to running backs all season, so opposing backs haven't fed on this defense the way the zone looks suggests. Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson are both healthy, which gives Stafford more underneath options than he had in Philadelphia. The bigger concern is game script. Williams caught just 2 passes in the 28-6 win over the Giants, when the Rams led comfortably and leaned on the run. If the Rams build a big early lead, his targets could dry up. Even so, the last three weeks show a clear change in how McVay uses him, and I'm siding with the role over the matchup history.
- GARY'S PICKTYLER ALLGEIERRUSHING ATTEMPTS UNDER 13.5
I'm taking Tyler Allgeier under 13.5 rushing attempts at -128. Jeremiyah Love was ruled out Friday with an ankle injury, and the line jumped from 7.5 carries last week to 13.5 today. That assumes Allgeier takes nearly all of Love's work, in a game where Arizona is a 12.5-point underdog.
Count the backfield carries in the games Arizona trailed. Against Seattle, Love and Allgeier combined for 14. Against Detroit, they combined for 15, and the whole team had just 18 runs. LaFleur's offense lives in 11 personnel, uses play-action sparingly, and drops the run once it falls behind. When the Cardinals hang around, they do it through the air. Jacoby Brissett threw 52 times in the six-point loss at San Francisco and 47 times against Detroit, with Trey McBride catching everything underneath. Even if Arizona stays inside the number, the path runs through Brissett's arm.
Allgeier also won't get every backfield carry. Bam Knight is the next back up and has gotten touches, and Brissett's scrambles come out of the team total too. Allgeier went for 2, 5 and 3 carries in three of five games this year. For him to clear 13.5, Arizona has to stay balanced for four quarters against a Rams team favored by nearly two touchdowns.
The case for the over is straightforward. Allgeier is now the clear lead back, and he carried 17 times in the opener when Arizona led the Chargers all day. The Rams also give up yards on the ground: Buffalo ran 37 times on them Monday, and they allow nearly 128 rushing yards a game. If LaFleur wants to shorten the game and keep Stafford on the sideline, Allgeier could get there. I need to see an early Arizona lead before I believe in that script. The likelier afternoon is Brissett dropping back and Allgeier finishing around ten carries.
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