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NFL · Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

O/U 62.5 · SPREAD New England Patriots -21.5 · Gillette Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Raiders +3.5
NFL@ Patriots· -110

Raiders
+3.5

-110 · LOST · LV 17 · NE 45

Patriots

The pick & result

Published pick
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
17-45

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 39 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 5 6:00 AM
Close
Oct 11 12:43 PM
Move
SPREADNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)New England Patriots -3.5 (+100)Price
TOTAL45 (-108)45 (-110)Price
MONEYLINENew England Patriots -190New England Patriots -190Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 5 6:00 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 5 8:01 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 5 3:57 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 6 7:00 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 6 9:41 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 6 11:42 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-112)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 6 2:13 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 7 6:00 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 7 7:30 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 7 12:32 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 7 1:33 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 7 2:33 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 7 3:33 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 8 12:38 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-108)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 8 8:00 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-110)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 8 8:30 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 8 9:31 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 8 12:02 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 8 3:03 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 9 12:48 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 9 11:31 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 9 2:01 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-108)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
Oct 9 4:02 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 9 10:03 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-110)New England Patriots -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 10 8:00 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 10 1:08 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-108)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 10 3:08 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 10 3:38 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Oct 10 11:09 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-108)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 5:00 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-110)New England Patriots -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 7:11 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-110)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 7:21 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-108)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 10:20 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-105)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 10:41 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-105)46 (-108)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 11:01 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-105)45.5 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 11:32 AMNew England Patriots -3.5 (+100)45.5 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 12:13 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (+100)45.5 (-108)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Oct 11 12:23 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (-102)45 (-110)New England Patriots -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Oct 11 12:30 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (+100)45 (-110)New England Patriots -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
CLOSEOct 11 12:43 PMNew England Patriots -3.5 (+100)45 (-110)New England Patriots -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155

The read

I'll take the Raiders and the points. New England's corner room is gutted. Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada are all out, and Charles Woods is questionable with a shoulder. That's bad timing against Brock Bowers, who lines up like a slot receiver and gives safeties fits. Bowers, Michael Mayer and Ian Thomas combined for 200 receiving yards against Kansas City last week. Kirk Cousins has 11 touchdowns against 4 picks, has been sacked only 5 times, and the Raiders have scored at least 26 in every game.

The other side of it is the turnover battle. The Raiders' defense leads the league with 9 takeaways and 5 forced fumbles. New England has 10 giveaways, tied for the most in the league. Drake Maye still turned it over twice even in his best game of the year at Buffalo. Maxx Crosby is lined up against Morgan Moses, who's questionable with a foot injury. If the Raiders win the turnover battle, New England is in trouble.

New England looked great at Buffalo, but that's one game, and the Bills lost starters during it. Even then the Patriots needed a late touchdown to win by 3. This offense averages about 16 points a game and stalls in the red zone. Two of their four games ended at exactly 3. Add Matt Gay at 10-for-10 on field goals against a Patriots kicking game at 5-for-7, and a close game leans toward Vegas.

The risks are real. The Raiders can't run the ball, Ashton Jeanty is fighting ankle and foot problems, their defense has given up 57 points the last two weeks, and they're playing at what feels like 10 AM back home. That's why I'm taking the points instead of the moneyline. But I'd bet on this team keeping it within a field goal, and +3.5 covers that.

Injuries noted

Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Collier (IR) — Collier (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Raiders on Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Corey Rucker (IR); Justin Pickett (IR); Chigozie Anusiem (IR) — The Raiders placed Anusiem (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Keyron Crawford (IR) — The Raiders placed Crawford (ankle) on injured reserve Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Brennan Jackson (IR) — ir; Carter Runyon (IR-R) — Runyon (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Raiders on Sunday with a designation to return.; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (IR-R) — Thornton (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Paul Gutierrez of Raiders.com reports.; Jack Bech (IR) — The Raiders placed Bech (forearm) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Trey Zuhn III (Out) — Zuhn (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Paul Gutierrez of Raiders.com reports.; Jalen Nailor (Out) — Nailor (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at New England, Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com reports.; Ashton Jeanty (Questionable) — Jeanty (ankle/foot) is hopeful to play Sunday at New England, but he'll go through a pregame workout before a final determination is made, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

New England Patriots: Harold Landry III (PUP-R) — Landry (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Patriots on Sunday.; Jeremiah Webb (IR) — The Patriots placed Webb (arm) on injured reserve Sunday, Evan Lazar of the team's official site reports.; Julian Hill (IR) — The Patriots placed Hill (knee) on IR on Monday, Evan Lazar of the team's official site reports.; Myles Montgomery (IR); Bryce Baringer (IR) — The Patriots placed Baringer (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Marcus Bryant (IR-R) — The Patriots placed Bryant (ankle) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Khalil Jacobs (IR) — The Patriots placed Jacobs (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Karon Prunty (Out) — Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Las Vegas.; A.J. Brown (IR) — Brown (ankle) was seen in the locker room Wednesday without a noticeable limp, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.; Carlton Davis III (Out) — Davis (neck) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Dre'Mont Jones (Questionable) — Jones (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Mike Onwenu (IR) — The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dell Pettus (IR) — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Craig Woodson (Questionable) — Woodson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas.; Reggie Gilliam (IR) — The Patriots placed Gilliam (ankle/knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.; Quintayvious Hutchins (IR) — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Morgan Moses (Questionable) — questionable; Christian Barmore (Questionable) — Barmore (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Greg Van Roten (IR) — The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Christian Elliss (Questionable) — Elliss (chest) is listed as questionable against the Raiders on Sunday.; Christian Gonzalez (Out) — Gonzalez (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Las Vegas.; Channing Canada (Out) — Canada (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Mack Hollins (IR) — The Patriots placed Hollins (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.; Charles Woods (Questionable) — Woods (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Rhamondre Stevenson (Questionable) — Stevenson (knee) is expected to play in Sunday's game versus the Raiders, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV

    7.13 Y/A

    Through 4 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 1026 passing yards, completed 64.6% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

  • Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

    7.3 Y/A

    Through 4 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 854 passing yards, completed 62.4% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-7 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

TRENCHES

  • NE: 104 rushing yards allowed per game to LV's 134.5

    30.5 YPG

    LV is at 134.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NE is at 104 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.

PASS RUSH

  • LV: 3 sacks recorded per game to NE's 2

    1 SACKS

    Las Vegas is averaging 3 sacks a game, New England 2, both over four games. A Raiders rush getting home that often is a strong start, though sack numbers are streaky and depend on the lines faced, which the sheet does not show. For this game, expect more pressure on the Patriots' quarterback, which can stall drives and push New England's scoring down.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • LV: 28.8 points per game to NE's 16.3

    12.5 PPG

    These two teams have flipped from last season. Las Vegas scored 14.2 over 17 games last year and is at 28.8 over four games now, exactly what New England put up last season. New England has fallen to 16.3. Four games is a small sample and both numbers could drift toward their old levels, so weigh how much of each swing you believe before pricing this game.

TURNOVERS

  • LV: 2.25 takeaways per game to NE's 1.25

    1 TO

    Las Vegas is taking the ball away 2.25 times a game, New England 1.25, both over four games. Four games is a short window, and turnovers are among the streakiest stats in football, so the Raiders' number will likely come down. It is a real edge so far for Las Vegas, but treat the size of it with caution when sizing up this game.

RED ZONE

  • LV: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to NE's 2.25

    1.5 TRIPS

    LV is at 3.75 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; NE is at 2.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season LV was at 2.12 over 17 games and NE at 3.71 over 17 games.

  • NE: 58.3% red-zone scoring allowed to LV's 76.9%

    18.6 PP

    LV is at 76.9% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; NE is at 58.3% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.

  • LV: 53.3% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 44.4%

    8.9 PP

    LV is at 53.3% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; NE is at 44.4% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season LV was at 50% over 17 games and NE at 57.1% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • LV: 1.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5

    1.5 VS 2.5

    The Raiders are turning it over 1.5 times a game and New England 2.5 over 4 games. New England was at 0.94 last season, so this is a big jump in a short run, while the Raiders are near last year's 1.35. Expect New England's giveaways to come down. At home, the Patriots win this matchup mostly by holding onto the ball.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • LV lead the series with NE since 2025

    1-0 SERIES

    One meeting: the Raiders won 20-13 in New England in Week 1 last season, a one-score game. One opener is a small sample, and both teams have had a full season since, so the earlier result tells you little about this rematch in the same building.

REPLACEMENT

  • Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) is ir-r for LV

    IR-R

    Thornton is still working back from his hamstring and is ruled out for Sunday at New England. His status shows he's eligible to return from injured reserve but not cleared for this one, so the Raiders go to the Patriots without him and his targets get spread among the other receivers.

  • Will Campbell (OT) is questionable for NE

    QUESTIONABLE

    Questionable means the Patriots have not ruled Will Campbell in or out for the Raiders game, and the call usually comes closer to kickoff. The report from Oct 12 gives no injury and no detail on how he practiced, so there is little to go on beyond the tag. If he sits, New England has to patch the offensive line, which matters for pass protection and the run game. Check the final inactives before betting anything that leans on the Patriots offense.

  • A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    Brown is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, though he was seen in the locker room Wednesday without a noticeable limp. That's an encouraging sign for his recovery, but he still sits on injured reserve, so New England faces the Raiders without him.

  • Mack Hollins (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    New England placed Hollins on injured reserve Saturday with a calf injury, so he's out against Las Vegas and for at least the next stretch. Combined with other receivers on the shelf, the Patriots' pass catchers are thin this week.

  • Jack Bech (WR) is on injured reserve for LV

    IR

    The Raiders placed receiver Jack Bech on injured reserve Tuesday with a forearm injury, per a Sep 29 report. Bech is unavailable for Las Vegas at New England. The Raiders' receiver targets shift to the healthy group, so look at who gained snaps in Bech's absence before backing any Raiders pass-catcher prop.

  • Reggie Gilliam (FB) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    The Patriots moved fullback Reggie Gilliam to injured reserve on Saturday, Oct 11, with ankle and knee injuries. IR means he is out for this game against the Raiders and at least several more after it. A fullback rarely moves a betting line on his own, so the useful angle is how New England's run game looks in its short-yardage and goal-line packages without its lead blocker.

  • Greg Van Roten (G) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 30.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Jalen Nailor

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • Christian Gonzalez

    Out

    Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

  • Karon Prunty

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Carlton Davis III

    Out

    Neck · Did not practice · Out

  • Trey Zuhn III

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Channing Canada

    Out

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Out

  • Ashton Jeanty

    Questionable

    Ankle, Foot · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Christian Elliss

    Questionable

    Chest · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Dre'Mont Jones

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Morgan Moses

    Questionable

    Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Christian Barmore

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Full practice · Questionable

  • Craig Woodson

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Rhamondre Stevenson

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Charles Woods

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Segun Olubi

    FP

    Full practice

  • Brenden Schooler

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jackson Powers-Johnson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Folorunso Fatukasi

    FP

    Full practice

  • Brock Bowers

    FP

    Full practice

  • Spencer Burford

    FP

    Full practice

  • Drake Maye

    FP

    Full practice

  • Dareke Young

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cody White

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • LV (3-1) at NE (2-2)

    -43 PT GAP

    LV is 3-1, +31 points on the year, has lost 1 straight this season. NE is 2-2, -12 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. LV is 2-0 on the road; NE is 1-0 at home.

  • LV: 250 team passing yards per game to NE's 213.8

    36.3 YPG

    LV is at 250 team passing yards per game over 4 games; NE is at 213.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season LV was at 167.7 over 17 games and NE at 250.5 over 17 games.

  • LV: 30 penalty yards per game to NE's 46

    16 YDS

    LV is at 30 penalty yards per game over 4 games; NE is at 46 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season LV was at 53 over 17 games and NE at 50.2 over 17 games.

  • LV: 39.6% third-down conversion rate to NE's 34.6%

    5 PP

    LV is at 39.6% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; NE is at 34.6% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season LV was at 33.8% over 17 games and NE at 42.9% over 17 games.

  • LV: 21.8 first downs per game to NE's 19.3

    2.5 FD

    LV is at 21.8 first downs per game over 4 games; NE is at 19.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season LV was at 15.1 over 17 games and NE at 21.2 over 17 games.

AFTER GARY

  • LV +3.5 → +3.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was 3.5; the same book now shows 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    DRAKE MAYEPASSING TDS UNDER 1.5
    NFLNew England Patriots· -103

    Drake Maye
    Passing Tds under 1.5

    -103 · LOST · ACTUAL 4

    New England Patriots

    Drake Maye under 1.5 passing touchdowns at -103.

    Maye has four touchdown passes in four starts this year, and three of them came in one afternoon at Buffalo. The other three games produced one, zero and zero. New England has run only 24 snaps inside the 20 all season and has gone backward on them, with Maye throwing 14 passes in there for 3 scores. That is a small sample, but it matches an offense scoring about 16 points a game.

    The receiver room got thinner on Saturday. Mack Hollins went on injured reserve, joining A.J. Brown, so Maye is working with Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas, Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams. The Raiders lean on two-high safety looks and split-safety zones that take away the deep shot and force check-downs, and their defense leads the league with 9 takeaways and 5 forced fumbles. New England already has 10 giveaways. Drives that end in a fumble or a pick never get to the end zone. When the Patriots do get close, Rhamondre Stevenson gets the short-yardage carries, so some of their scores go on the ground.

    The other side has teeth. The Buffalo plan, with heavy motion and more play-action, is still on the call sheet, and it produced three touchdown passes against a good defense. Maye threw 22 touchdowns inside the 20 last season and averaged close to two a game over the stretch shown, so the ceiling is real. The Raiders have been soft inside their own 20 on a small sample, they gave up 57 points over the last two weeks, and Kansas City burned their cover zero deep. If Las Vegas scores the way it has all season, Maye will be throwing a lot late. At close to even money, I'll still take the quarterback who has one multi-touchdown game this year, missing his top two receivers, against a defense built to make him check it down.

  • GARY'S PICK
    EFTON CHISM IIIRECEIVING YARDS OVER 23.5
    NFLNew England Patriots· -113

    Efton Chism III
    Receiving Yards over 23.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 57

    New England Patriots

    Efton Chism III over 23.5 receiving yards at -113.

    This is a role bet, and the role changed Saturday. Mack Hollins, New England's leading receiver with 209 yards on 20 targets through four games, went on injured reserve with the calf injury he picked up at Buffalo. Chism replaced him in the second half of that game and delivered a 19-yard dig and the 23-yard winning touchdown on the final drive. He also threw blocks that had Mike Vrabel saying more reps are coming. With Romeo Doubs outside and DeMario Douglas in the slot, Chism is the third receiver now and should play well beyond the 34 snaps he got last week.

    The matchup suits what he does. The Raiders' most-used coverage is cover three, and Chism's catches at Buffalo came working the intermediate middle against zone. Wide receivers have piled up 607 yards on this Las Vegas defense in four games. If McDaniels stays with the motion and play-action plan that worked last week, the digs and crossers Chism ran are built into it. In his two games with catches last season he went for 35 and 40.

    The risk is a thin track record. Chism has 4 catches for 41 yards across three games this season, and before Buffalo he had two catches for a net loss of a yard as a part-time player. Kyle Williams will mix in, Hunter Henry is the likelier first read on play-action, and the Raiders' pass rush could push Maye toward quick throws to backs and tight ends. One long catch clears this number and one missed connection sinks it. I'm paying -113 because his snaps are about to jump and the line still reads like he's a backup.

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