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NFL · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

O/U 40.5 · SPREAD Baltimore Ravens -7.5 · M&T Bank Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Titans +11.5
NFL@ Ravens· -106

Titans
+11.5

-106 · CASHED · TEN 18 · BAL 24

Ravens

The pick & result

Published pick
Tennessee Titans +11.5 -106
Published odds
-106
Result
Won
Final score
18-24

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 39 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 28 6:00 AM
Close
Oct 4 12:50 PM
Move
SPREADBaltimore Ravens -11 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)+½
TOTAL43.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)−1
MONEYLINEBaltimore Ravens -650Baltimore Ravens -750−100
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 28 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -11 (-110)43.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 28 1:46 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 28 2:16 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 28 3:47 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 29 12:15 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)43.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 29 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 29 8:30 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 29 10:01 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 29 11:03 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 30 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 30 7:30 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 30 8:30 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 30 9:31 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 30 10:31 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 30 12:34 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 30 1:34 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Sep 30 3:34 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)43.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Sep 30 5:35 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 1 5:04 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -650 · Tennessee Titans +500
Oct 2 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-108)42.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 2 7:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-112)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 2 5:32 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 7:31 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-112)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 12:09 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 12:39 PMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-112)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 1:09 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 1:39 PMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-112)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 7:19 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 8:50 PMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-112)42.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 9:20 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 3 10:51 PMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-108)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +550
Oct 4 5:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-108)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 4 7:41 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +550
Oct 4 8:11 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 4 8:32 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-108)42.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -700 · Tennessee Titans +525
Oct 4 9:11 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-108)42.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -750 · Tennessee Titans +550
Oct 4 9:49 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-105)42.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -750 · Tennessee Titans +550
Oct 4 11:50 AMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-105)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -750 · Tennessee Titans +575
Oct 4 12:00 PMBaltimore Ravens -12 (-105)42.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -750 · Tennessee Titans +550
CLOSEOct 4 12:50 PMBaltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -750 · Tennessee Titans +550

The read

I’m taking Tennessee because its defensive resistance gives this double-digit cushion substance. Through three 2026 games, the Titans have allowed 5.03 yards per play and explosives on 8.47% of opponent plays. My read is that they can make Baltimore earn its points through sustained possessions, keeping this within reach even if Tennessee struggles offensively.

Baltimore’s defense also gives the dog a route to a covering score: it has allowed 26 points per game, and Hendrickson [OUT; FRESH — Reported Oct 2 (2d)] played 61% of last week’s defensive snaps. His absence adds uncertainty to Baltimore’s ability to finish possessions with pressure. The Ravens’ 34-31 win last week showed scoring power alongside defensive vulnerability; I don’t read that result as evidence of dependable separation.

The strongest argument against me is substantial: Baltimore’s offense has succeeded on 58.33% of early-down plays, while Tennessee averages just 12.3 points. A few empty Titans possessions could turn this into a rout. But those are three-game samples, and Tennessee’s defense has shown enough resistance that I prefer the 11.5-point cushion at -106. I’m backing containment and the possibility of a late covering touchdown.

Injuries noted

Tennessee Titans: Jaylen Harrell (IR) — ir; Jaren Kanak (IR) — ir; Kendell Brooks (IR) — Brooks (undisclosed) reverted to Tennessee's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Milo Eifler (IR) — ir; Tanoh Kpassagnon (IR) — The Titans placed Kpassagnon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Dorian Mausi (IR-R) — The Titans placed Mausi (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Joshua Williams (IR-R) — The Titans placed Williams (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Fernando Carmona (IR) — The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Tony Pollard (Questionable) — Titans head coach Robert Saleh said that Pollard (foot) is expected to practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.; Tyjae Spears (Questionable) — Spears (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Baltimore, is slated to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Jackson Slater (IR) — The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; John Franklin-Myers (Questionable) — questionable; Kevin Winston Jr. (Questionable) — Winston (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.; Garrett Dellinger (Questionable) — Dellinger (illness) has been added to the injury report as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens: Jahquez Robinson (IR) — Robinson (undisclosed) reverted to the Ravens' injured reserve list Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday, Clifton Brown of the team's official website reports.; Adam Randall (IR-R) — Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports.; T.J. Tampa (IR) — The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Zay Flowers (Questionable) — Flowers (hamstring) is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Titans, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Ja'Kobi Lane (IR) — Coach Jesse Minter said Lane underwent wrist surgery Wednesday, and the Ravens placed the rookie wide receiver on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports.; Trey Hendrickson (Out) — out; John Simpson (Questionable) — questionable; Ronnie Stanley (Questionable) — Stanley (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Chris Moore (Questionable) — questionable; Jovaughn Gwyn (IR) — The Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday.; Ethan Pocic (IR) — Baltimore placed Pocic (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Lamar Jackson (Questionable) — Jackson (back) is participating at the start of Thursday's practice, Cordell Woodland of 105.7 The Fan Baltimore Sports Radio reports.; Marlon Humphrey (Questionable) — questionable; Durham Smythe (Questionable) — Smythe (heel) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

    9.8 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 745 passing yards, completed 69.7% of his passes and averaged 9.8 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

  • Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN

    5.73 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 504 passing yards, completed 62.5% of his passes and averaged 5.73 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

  • BAL: 105 rushing yards allowed per game to TEN's 126.3

    21.3 YPG

    Baltimore allows 105 rushing yards a game over 3 games, and Tennessee gives up 126.3. The Titans run defense is the softer one, which matters against a Ravens team built to run. Game script inflates rushing allowed for teams that trail, and three games can tilt either way. If Baltimore gets ahead, Tennessee's number likely grows, so Ravens rushing props fit that spot.

PASS RUSH

  • TEN: 9 sack yards lost per game to BAL's 17

    8 YDS

    TEN is at 9 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; BAL is at 17 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 26.1 over 17 games and BAL at 17.2 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • BAL: 30.7 points per game to TEN's 12.3

    18.3 PPG

    The Ravens score 30.7 a game to the Titans' 12.3 over three games. Baltimore is up from 24.9 last season and Tennessee is down from 16.7, so both are running a bit to the extremes, with the Ravens more likely to cool slightly. The gap was wide last year too, so a lopsided game is plausible, but the exact margin from three games is likely overstated.

  • BAL: 30:39 time of possession per game to TEN's 23:28

    7:11 TOP

    TEN is at 23:28 time of possession per game over 3 games; BAL is at 30:39 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 29:08 over 17 games and BAL at 29:11 over 17 games.

  • TEN: 19.7 points allowed per game to BAL's 26

    6.3 PPG

    TEN is at 19.7 points allowed per game over 3 games; BAL is at 26 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 28.1 over 17 games and BAL at 23.4 over 17 games.

  • TEN @ BAL carries a 42.5 market total

    42.5

    At 42.5, this game is 4 points below the 46.5 slate median, so the market expects somewhat fewer points than a typical game this week. The sheet gives no injury or matchup reason for it. A short gap like this cracks easily: a defensive score or a couple of long plays would do it. Bettors can treat early pace and red-zone finishing as the tell for whether the lower expectation holds.

  • BAL: 59.3 offensive plays per game to TEN's 52.3

    7 PLAYS

    TEN is at 52.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; BAL is at 59.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and BAL at 57.3 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • BAL: 6.67 yards per play to TEN's 4.77

    1.9 Y/P

    Baltimore gains 6.67 yards a play to Tennessee's 4.77, and both were in the same spots last season at 5.92 and 4.38. The big-play split shows it: the Ravens had 7 plays of 20+ yards in their last game, from Lamar Jackson to Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers and a 29-yard Derrick Henry run, while the Titans had 1, a 20-yard Cam Ward throw to Carnell Tate. Tennessee needs long, mistake-free drives to keep up; Baltimore can score in chunks.

RED ZONE

  • BAL: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to TEN's 50%

    16.7 PP

    TEN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; BAL is at 66.7% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 57.6% over 17 games and BAL at 47.5% over 17 games.

  • BAL: 4 red-zone trips per game to TEN's 2.67

    1.33 TRIPS

    TEN is at 2.67 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; BAL is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 1.94 over 17 games and BAL at 3.47 over 17 games.

  • TEN: 55.6% red-zone scoring allowed to BAL's 70%

    14.4 PP

    Tennessee has let opponents score on 55.6% of red-zone trips over 3 games, while Baltimore sits at 70%. Red-zone rates move wildly early because the trip counts are small, so both numbers could shift a lot in one game. Baltimore's figure means drives that get close against them usually finish. Factor that into Titans scoring only lightly, since the sample is thin.

MISMATCH

  • BAL: 167.3 rush yards a game to TEN's 90.3

    167.3 VS 90.3

    Baltimore is running for 167.3 yards a game over three games, while Tennessee sits at 90.3. Both numbers line up with last season, 156.6 for Baltimore and 93.5 for Tennessee, so this is a lasting difference. Tennessee has to keep the game close early, because once Baltimore is ahead it can grind out the clock on the ground.

COVERAGE

  • TEN: 189 passing yards allowed per game to BAL's 216.3

    27.3 YPG

    TEN is at 189 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; BAL is at 216.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

REPLACEMENT

  • Lamar Jackson (QB) is questionable for BAL

    QUESTIONABLE

    Jackson is Baltimore's starting quarterback and the center of the offense, so any limit on him changes how this team plays. He was seen in a walking boot on his left ankle after Sunday's 24-18 win over the Titans. Questionable means a real chance he sits, and a boot right after a game is a sign to wait for practice reports. Until his status firms up, Baltimore markets carry extra uncertainty.

  • Ronnie Stanley (OT) is questionable for BAL

    QUESTIONABLE

    Stanley is Baltimore's tackle and he finished Sunday's 24-18 win over Tennessee despite a toe injury. Playing through it is a good sign for his availability. Questionable keeps some doubt, so confirm his status, especially alongside the Lamar Jackson news.

  • Chris Moore (WR) is inactive for BAL

    INACTIVE

    Moore is inactive, so he will not play against Tennessee. The sheet gives no injury or reason, which often points to a depth decision at receiver. Any small role he had goes to the other Ravens receivers, and the impact on the game should be minor.

  • Ethan Pocic (C) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    Baltimore put Pocic on injured reserve Saturday with a knee injury, so the Ravens are without their center against Tennessee. A backup now handles snaps and calls up front, which can mean more pressure up the middle. Factor in a less settled interior line when looking at Ravens offensive markets.

  • Jovaughn Gwyn (G) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    The Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.

  • Jackson Slater (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

    IR

    Tennessee placed Slater on injured reserve Tuesday with a foot injury, ruling the guard out at Baltimore. Fellow guard Fernando Carmona went on IR the same day, so the Titans are patching two spots on the interior. Expect a reshuffled line against the Ravens, which matters for anyone leaning on the Tennessee offense.

  • Fernando Carmona (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

    IR

    Tennessee put Carmona on injured reserve Tuesday with an ankle injury, so the guard misses the game at Baltimore. The Titans also lost guard Jackson Slater to IR the same day, which leaves the interior line thin. Two guards gone at once is a real hit to protection and the run game, and that is the angle to weigh in this matchup.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Durham Smythe

    Out

    Full practice · Out

  • Trey Hendrickson

    Out

    Finger · Did not practice · Out

  • Tyjae Spears

    Questionable

    Ankle · Full practice · Questionable

  • Zay Flowers

    Questionable

    Hamstring, Not injury related - resting player · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Chris Moore

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Kevin Winston Jr.

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Ronnie Stanley

    Questionable

    Toe, Not injury related - resting player · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Tony Pollard

    FP

    Full practice

  • John Franklin-Myers

    FP

    Full practice

  • Lamar Jackson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Mark Andrews

    FP

    Full practice

  • Calais Campbell

    FP

    Full practice

  • John Simpson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Marlon Humphrey

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • TEN: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to BAL's 0%

    50 PP

    TEN is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; BAL is at 0% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 45.7% over 17 games and BAL at 60% over 17 games.

  • TEN (0-3) at BAL (2-1)

    +36 PT GAP

    Tennessee is 0-3 and -22, so the losing is real, though -22 over three games is closer to steady losses than blowouts. Baltimore is 2-1 and +14, yet 0-1 at home, one game that says little. The Ravens profile as the better team without being dominant. If the spread treats this as a mismatch on the scale of the records, Tennessee's losing margins suggest some room.

  • TEN: 44.3 penalty yards per game to BAL's 66

    21.7 YDS

    TEN is at 44.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; BAL is at 66 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season TEN was at 59.5 over 17 games and BAL at 43.9 over 17 games.

STREAK

  • TEN has lost 3 straight

    L3

    Tennessee is 0-3 and has not won a game. Three games is a small sample and the opponents are not on the sheet, so the record alone does not separate a bad roster from a hard start. Going on the road to Baltimore is a tough spot for any winless team. The useful question is whether the spread already reflects that, since books know the public avoids teams like this.

AFTER GARY

  • TEN +11.5 → +11.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was 11.5; the market closed at 11.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    LAMAR JACKSONPASSING TDS UNDER 1.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· +100

    Lamar Jackson
    Passing Tds under 1.5

    +100 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

    Baltimore Ravens

    I’m taking Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing touchdowns at +100. Zero or one passing touchdown wins. Tennessee has allowed two passing touchdowns across three 2026 games, giving this bet specific matchup support, although that is a short sample.

    Baltimore’s scoring opportunities also run through Henry. Its lead back has twenty carries inside the twenty, including nine inside the five, with five rushing touchdowns on those red zone carries this season. Jackson has ten passes inside the twenty and two passing touchdowns there. My read is that Baltimore can score enough to win while Henry claims the finishing touches that keep Jackson below this line.

    The strongest contrary evidence is Jackson’s two passing touchdowns last Sunday and Baltimore’s productive early down offense. Tennessee also allowed thirty passing touchdowns over seventeen games in 2025. That longer background tempers my confidence in its recent defensive results, but even money makes the current matchup and Baltimore’s rushing finishers attractive.

  • GARY'S PICK
    LAMAR JACKSONPASSING COMPLETIONS UNDER 18.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· -123

    Lamar Jackson
    Passing Completions under 18.5

    -123 · CASHED · ACTUAL 15

    Baltimore Ravens

    I’m taking Lamar Jackson under 18.5 passing completions at -123. Eighteen completions or fewer cashes this ticket. Baltimore’s starting quarterback has finished with fifteen, twenty-one and seventeen completions in his three 2026 games, while lead back Derrick Henry has handled sixty-six carries. The offense has a clear path to substantial rushing volume.

    The matchup supports that approach because Tennessee has averaged just 12.3 points through three games. I expect limited pressure on Baltimore to sustain a heavy passing workload. My Titans spread pick rests on defensive resistance, and a competitive game can still leave Henry central to Baltimore’s possessions.

    The strongest argument against me is Jackson’s twenty-one completions against New Orleans. Tennessee’s resistance could also force longer drives with repeated short completions. That creates a real threat to a line requiring fewer than nineteen, particularly at -123.

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