Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 44.5 · SPREAD Los Angeles Rams -3.5 · Lincoln Financial Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 24-20
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 60 moves| Market | Opened Sep 28 6:00 AM | Close Oct 4 12:50 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 46.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | −3½ |
| MONEYLINE | Los Angeles Rams -135 | Los Angeles Rams -190 | −55 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 28 6:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -135 · Philadelphia Eagles +110 |
| Sep 28 1:46 PM | Los Angeles Rams -2 (-108) | 46 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -130 · Philadelphia Eagles +110 |
| Sep 28 2:47 PM | Los Angeles Rams -2 (-110) | 46 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -130 · Philadelphia Eagles +110 |
| Sep 28 4:17 PM | Los Angeles Rams -2 (-108) | 46 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -130 · Philadelphia Eagles +110 |
| Sep 28 5:15 PM | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-108) | 46 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115 |
| Sep 28 5:35 PM | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110) | 46 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115 |
| Sep 28 6:45 PM | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110) | 46 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115 |
| Sep 28 8:15 PM | Los Angeles Rams -2 (-118) | 46 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115 |
| Sep 29 12:15 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -155 · Philadelphia Eagles +130 |
| Sep 29 10:01 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-108) | 45 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -160 · Philadelphia Eagles +130 |
| Sep 29 1:04 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-108) | 44 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138 |
| Sep 29 3:04 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-110) | 44 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Sep 29 4:05 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135 |
| Sep 29 5:05 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135 |
| Sep 29 6:08 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-110) | 43.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138 |
| Sep 29 9:09 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138 |
| Sep 29 10:09 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135 |
| Sep 29 11:09 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -160 · Philadelphia Eagles +135 |
| Sep 30 6:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-112) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135 |
| Sep 30 9:31 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -160 · Philadelphia Eagles +135 |
| Sep 30 5:35 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-112) | 44 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Sep 30 7:35 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-112) | 44 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Sep 30 8:35 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Sep 30 11:05 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Oct 1 1:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Oct 1 2:34 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Oct 1 4:04 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Oct 1 4:34 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140 |
| Oct 1 5:55 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138 |
| Oct 1 6:45 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3 (-118) | 43 (-112) | Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +145 |
| Oct 1 7:05 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +145 |
| Oct 1 7:16 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -185 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 1 7:36 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 1 7:46 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -185 · Philadelphia Eagles +150 |
| Oct 1 8:06 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 1 9:47 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 1 10:17 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112) | 43 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 2 7:02 PM | Los Angeles Rams -4 (-108) | 43 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 2 8:32 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112) | 43 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 3 8:31 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-120) | 43 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 3 9:38 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112) | 42.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 3 10:08 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112) | 42.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165 |
| Oct 4 7:41 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-120) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165 |
| Oct 4 7:51 AM | Los Angeles Rams -4 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 8:01 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-120) | 43 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165 |
| Oct 4 8:22 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112) | 42.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165 |
| Oct 4 9:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165 |
| Oct 4 9:21 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 10:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 10:10 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 10:40 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-112) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 10:50 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 11:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-102) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 11:10 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 4 11:20 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 11:40 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 4 11:50 AM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 4 12:10 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 4 12:20 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 4 12:40 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-105) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| CLOSEOct 4 12:50 PM | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
The read
I’m laying the points because I trust the Rams to sustain offense more than I trust Philadelphia’s depleted receiving group to answer. Across three 2026 games, Los Angeles has gained 6.92 yards per play on first and second down against Philadelphia’s 4.52. My read is that the Rams can create manageable situations and keep their run and pass options available. Philadelphia losing Zack Baun adds to that opportunity; he played 92% of its defensive snaps last week before the October 2 OUT report.
The Eagles’ problem goes beyond their seven-point loss at Chicago: DeVonta Smith played every offensive snap in that game and is now OUT, alongside Dallas Goedert. Wicks and the listed replacement options give Hurts somewhere to go, but I expect those losses to make answering sustained Rams possessions harder.
The strongest case against laying 3.5 is Los Angeles’ negative red-zone EPA and six giveaways through three games. Donald and Watson being OUT also gives Philadelphia an opening, while Nacua remains questionable. Those concerns make the extra half-point meaningful. I still favor the Rams’ ability to generate scoring opportunities enough to pay -115, with modest confidence.
Injuries noted
Los Angeles Rams: Justin Dedich (IR-R) — Dedich (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Eddie Walls III (IR) — The Rams placed Walls (undisclosed) on their injured reserve list Thursday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Matthew Caldwell (IR) — The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Daniel Rickert (IR) — Rickert (knee) reverted to the Rams' injured reserve Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Keir Thomas II (IR) — ir; Keagen Trost (IR-R) — Trost (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Myles Garrett (IR) — Garrett (knee) is facing a six-week recovery from surgery on his left knee, but the pass rusher is determined to be back before then, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and ESPN reports.; Nate Landman (Questionable) — Landman (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Kamren Kinchens (Questionable) — Kinchens (hamstring) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Puka Nacua (Questionable) — Nacua (hip) officially was listed as a limited participant on Thursday's injury report, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.; Ronnie Rivers (IR) — The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday.; Terrance Ferguson (IR) — Ferguson (ankle) is out for Sunday's game against Philadelphia, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Colby Parkinson (Questionable) — Parkinson (shoulder/knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.; Jaylen Watson (Out) — Watson (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Aaron Donald (Out) — Donald (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.; Josh Wallace (Questionable) — questionable; Josaiah Stewart (Questionable) — questionable
Philadelphia Eagles: Tucker Large (NFI-R) — Undisclosed; Jakorian Bennett (IR-R) — Bennett (knee) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Eagles on Sunday.; Grant Calcaterra (IR-R) — Calcaterra (back) was placed on injured reserve by the Eagles on Sunday with a designation to return.; Andre' Sam (IR) — Sam (foot) reverted to the Eagles' injured-reserve list Monday, Andrew DiCecco of InsideTheBirds.com reports.; Eli Stowers (IR) — The Eagles placed Stowers (quadriceps/hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Johnny Wilson (IR) — Wilson (knee) reverted to Philadelphia's injured reserve Saturday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Marcus Epps (Out) — Epps (groin) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Rams.; Landon Dickerson (IR) — The Eagles placed Dickerson (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Chris McPherson of the team's official site reports.; Dallas Goedert (Out) — Goedert (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Rams.; Will Shipley (Questionable) — Shipley (foot) did not participate in Wednesday's practice.; DeVonta Smith (Out) — Smith (hamstring) remained sidelined for Friday's practice, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports.; Hollywood Brown (Out) — Brown (ankle) is listed as out ahead of Sunday's game against the Rams.; Fred Johnson (Out) — Johnson (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Rams.; Zack Baun (Out) — Baun (concussion) won't play in Sunday's game against the Rams.; Jihaad Campbell (Questionable) — Campbell (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Jordan Davis (Questionable) — Calf; Moro Ojomo (Questionable) — questionable
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI
7.13 Y/AThrough 3 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 620 passing yards, completed 64.4% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR
7.86 Y/AThrough 3 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 872 passing yards, completed 60.4% of his passes and averaged 7.86 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
TRENCHES
LAR: 101.3 rushing yards allowed per game to PHI's 127.3
26 YPGLAR is at 101.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; PHI is at 127.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.
PASS RUSH
LAR: 1.67 sacks taken per game to PHI's 2.67
1 SACKSLAR is at 1.67 sacks taken per game over 3 games; PHI is at 2.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 1.77 over 17 games and PHI at 2.33 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
LAR: 66.3 offensive plays per game to PHI's 57.3
9 PLAYSLAR is at 66.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; PHI is at 57.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 63.9 over 17 games and PHI at 59.4 over 17 games.
LAR: 31:05 time of possession per game to PHI's 28:44
2:21 TOPLAR is at 31:05 time of possession per game over 3 games; PHI is at 28:44 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 30:46 over 17 games and PHI at 30:11 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
LAR: 1 takeaways per game to PHI's 0
1 TOThe Rams have forced 1 turnover a game over three games, and Philadelphia has yet to force one. Zero takeaways in three games is more likely bad luck than a permanent trait, since turnovers bounce around. For this game, the Rams have the edge on extra possessions so far, but the Eagles' number is the one most likely to change.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
LAR: 6.33 yards per play to PHI's 5.33
1 Y/PThe Rams average 6.33 yards a play to the Eagles' 5.33, close to last season's 6.15 and 5.27, so this gap has held up. In their last game the Rams had 7 plays of 20-plus yards, including Stafford hitting Davante Adams for 49 and Konata Mumpfield for a 48-yard score, while Philadelphia had 2. The Rams win with chunk plays, and the Eagles grind it out, so a Rams offense that hits deep shots on the road changes how this game goes.
RED ZONE
PHI: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to LAR's 50%
16.7 PPLAR is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; PHI is at 66.7% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 63.2% over 17 games and PHI at 70.5% over 17 games.
MISMATCH
LAR: 284 pass yards a game to PHI's 191.7
284 VS 191.7The Rams are throwing for 284 yards a game, Philadelphia 191.7, over three games. This is close to last season, when the Rams sat at 268.1 and the Eagles at 194.3, so the gap looks real. Philadelphia has to keep Rams receivers in front of them and win with a slower, ground-heavy game. Player prop bettors should note the Rams passing volume has held steady across two seasons.
COVERAGE
LAR: 4.5 yards per play allowed to PHI's 5.17
0.67 Y/PThe Rams allow 4.5 yards per play over 3 games, a stingy mark, while Philadelphia gives up 5.17. That is the cleaner efficiency stat here, since it ignores how many snaps a defense faced. Three games can be shaped by weak offenses, and the sheet does not tell us who they played. If the Rams number holds up, it favors them in a game where Philadelphia has to move the ball steadily.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
PHI lead the series with LAR since 2025
1-0 SERIESThis is one game: Philadelphia beat the Rams 33-26 at home on Sep 21 last season. It was a high-scoring game decided by one score, so the Eagles winning the series counts for little on its own. With the matchup back in Philadelphia, that result says more about these offenses being able to score on each other than about who has the edge.
REPLACEMENT
Lane Johnson (OT) is inactive for PHI
INACTIVEJohnson, Philadelphia's tackle, sat out Sunday's 24-20 loss to the Rams for a personal reason, with no injury involved. That means his absence should not carry over the way a physical injury would. Watch for word on his return before pricing the Eagles' line play into future games.
Terrance Ferguson (TE) is on injured reserve for LAR
IRFerguson is on injured reserve with an ankle injury and is out for Sunday's game in Philadelphia. The Rams lose a tight end, so the remaining tight ends pick up his snaps and any short targets he would have drawn. Factor that in if you are looking at Rams tight end props.
Ronnie Rivers (RB) is on injured reserve for LAR
IRRivers has been on injured reserve since Sep 24 with a calf injury, so he misses the Philadelphia game. He is a depth running back, and the Rams' other backs carry the load. His absence changes little for Los Angeles.
Jordan Davis (DT) is questionable for PHI
QUESTIONABLEDavis is questionable for Philadelphia against the Rams, with no injury detail listed. He anchors the middle of the Eagles' defensive line, so his status matters for how well they hold up against the run. If he sits, Rams running backs get a friendlier interior, so watch the inactive list before betting Rams rushing numbers.
Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR
IRGarrett is on injured reserve after surgery on his left knee and faces a six-week recovery, though the pass rusher wants to be back sooner. That rules Garrett out against Philadelphia, which takes the Rams' top edge threat off the field. Expect less pressure on the Eagles quarterback, and treat any early return talk as hopeful until it shows up on the practice report.
PRACTICE REPORT
Jaylen Watson
OutShoulder · Did not practice · Out
Aaron Donald
OutBack · Did not practice · Out
Dallas Goedert
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Marcus Epps
OutGroin · Did not practice · Out
Hollywood Brown
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Jonathan Greenard
OutFull practice · Out
Fred Johnson
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
DeVonta Smith
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Zack Baun
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Josaiah Stewart
QuestionableGroin · Did not practice · Questionable
Colby Parkinson
QuestionableKnee, Shoulder · Did not practice · Questionable
Alaric Jackson
DNPDid not practice
Tyler Higbee
DNPDid not practice
Byron Young
DNPDid not practice
Jihaad Campbell
LPLimited practice
Nate Landman
FPFull practice
Will Shipley
FPFull practice
Josh Wallace
FPFull practice
Puka Nacua
FPFull practice
Kamren Kinchens
FPFull practice
Jonathan Jones
FPFull practice
Tank Bigsby
FPFull practice
Jordan Davis
FPFull practice
Byron Young
FPFull practice
Jalen Carter
FPFull practice
Moro Ojomo
FPFull practice
Davante Adams
FPFull practice
Darius Cooper
FPFull practice
Poona Ford
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
LAR: 284 team passing yards per game to PHI's 191.7
92.3 YPGThe Rams throw for 284 yards a game against the Eagles' 191.7, and both are close to last season's numbers, 268.1 and 194.3. That consistency makes this a style clash that should hold: the Rams win through the air, the Eagles keep their passing volume modest. Expect Philadelphia to try to control tempo on the ground and limit Rams possessions, which matters for passing yard props on both sides.
LAR: 21.3 first downs per game to PHI's 15.7
5.7 FDThe Rams are getting 21.3 first downs a game to Philadelphia's 15.7 through three games. Both are below last season, 23.3 and 18, but the gap between them is similar. The Rams are the team that keeps drives alive, while the Eagles have been more stop-and-start, which favors the Rams holding the ball longer.
LAR: 7.37 yards per pass attempt to PHI's 5.93
1.43 Y/ALAR is at 7.37 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; PHI is at 5.93 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 7.24 over 17 games and PHI at 6.33 over 17 games.
LAR: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to PHI's 33.3%
16.7 PPLAR is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; PHI is at 33.3% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 66.7% over 17 games and PHI at 52.4% over 17 games.
LAR (1-2) at PHI (2-1)
-12 PT GAPPhiladelphia is 2-1 but -14, a record that flatters the Eagles, while the Rams are 1-2 at -2, close to even. Both lost last time out, and each split is one game: Rams 0-1 away, Eagles 1-0 at home. Over three games, margin is the better read, and it favors the Rams. If the line leans on Philadelphia's record, the road side has a case.
AFTER GARY
LAR -3.5 → -3.5
NO MOVEGary's number was -3.5; the market closed at -3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKSAQUON BARKLEYRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 14.5
I’m taking Barkley under 14.5 receiving yards at -117. His three 2026 games produced minus two, 11 and minus three receiving yards, with two targets in each game. The positional matchup supports modest gains: Los Angeles has allowed running backs 101 receiving yards on 18 catches across three games. Those are combined totals for opposing backs, but they support my expectation that a small number of Barkley catches can stay below 15 yards.
The strongest counter is that Philadelphia’s fresh absences could expand his receiving work. Smith and Goedert being out creates a reason to question the recent target pattern. Barkley also recorded receiving games of 52, 41 and 24 yards within the nine listed games from 2025. One productive screen could beat this line without requiring a large workload.
- GARY'S PICKSAQUON BARKLEYRECEPTIONS UNDER 2.5
I’m taking Barkley under 2.5 receptions at -155. That price needs a convincing workload case, and he has drawn two targets and caught one pass in each of his three 2026 games, despite substantial changes in his rushing workload. Philadelphia has gained just 4.52 yards per play on first and second down this season. Against a Rams defense allowing 4.54 yards per play across three games, I expect sustaining possessions to remain difficult, limiting opportunities for that receiving workload to grow.
The strongest contrary evidence is Philadelphia’s fresh receiving losses. Smith, Goedert and Brown being out could send additional throws toward Barkley, especially if the Eagles chase the Rams as I expect. Los Angeles has also allowed 18 running back catches across three games, so this defense has permitted opportunities at his position.
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