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NFL · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

O/U 44.5 · SPREAD Los Angeles Rams -3.5 · Lincoln Financial Field

GARY'S PICK
Rams -3.5
NFL@ Eagles· -115

Rams
-3.5

-115 · CASHED · LAR 24 · PHI 20

Eagles

The pick & result

Published pick
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Won
Final score
24-20

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 60 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 28 6:00 AM
Close
Oct 4 12:50 PM
Move
SPREADLos Angeles Rams -2.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)+1
TOTAL46.5 (-108)43 (-110)−3½
MONEYLINELos Angeles Rams -135Los Angeles Rams -190−55
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 28 6:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -2.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -135 · Philadelphia Eagles +110
Sep 28 1:46 PMLos Angeles Rams -2 (-108)46 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Philadelphia Eagles +110
Sep 28 2:47 PMLos Angeles Rams -2 (-110)46 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Philadelphia Eagles +110
Sep 28 4:17 PMLos Angeles Rams -2 (-108)46 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Philadelphia Eagles +110
Sep 28 5:15 PMLos Angeles Rams -2.5 (-108)46 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115
Sep 28 5:35 PMLos Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110)46 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115
Sep 28 6:45 PMLos Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110)46 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115
Sep 28 8:15 PMLos Angeles Rams -2 (-118)46 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Philadelphia Eagles +115
Sep 29 12:15 AMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-105)45.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -155 · Philadelphia Eagles +130
Sep 29 10:01 AMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-108)45 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -160 · Philadelphia Eagles +130
Sep 29 1:04 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-108)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138
Sep 29 3:04 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-110)44 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Sep 29 4:05 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135
Sep 29 5:05 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135
Sep 29 6:08 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-110)43.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138
Sep 29 9:09 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-112)43.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138
Sep 29 10:09 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-112)43.5 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135
Sep 29 11:09 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-110)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -160 · Philadelphia Eagles +135
Sep 30 6:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-112)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +135
Sep 30 9:31 AMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-110)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -160 · Philadelphia Eagles +135
Sep 30 5:35 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-112)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Sep 30 7:35 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-112)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Sep 30 8:35 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-115)43.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Sep 30 11:05 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-112)43.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Oct 1 1:02 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-118)43.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Oct 1 2:34 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-115)43.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Oct 1 4:04 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-118)43.5 (-108)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Oct 1 4:34 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-118)43.5 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +140
Oct 1 5:55 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-118)43.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -165 · Philadelphia Eagles +138
Oct 1 6:45 PMLos Angeles Rams -3 (-118)43 (-112)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +145
Oct 1 7:05 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -175 · Philadelphia Eagles +145
Oct 1 7:16 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Philadelphia Eagles +155
Oct 1 7:36 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155
Oct 1 7:46 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -185 · Philadelphia Eagles +150
Oct 1 8:06 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155
Oct 1 9:47 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 1 10:17 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112)43 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 2 7:02 PMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-108)43 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 2 8:32 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112)43 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 3 8:31 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-120)43 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 3 9:38 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112)42.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 3 10:08 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112)42.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165
Oct 4 7:41 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-120)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165
Oct 4 7:51 AMLos Angeles Rams -4 (-108)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 8:01 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-120)43 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165
Oct 4 8:22 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112)42.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165
Oct 4 9:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165
Oct 4 9:21 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 10:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 10:10 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 10:40 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-112)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 10:50 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 11:00 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-102)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 11:10 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155
Oct 4 11:20 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 11:40 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
Oct 4 11:50 AMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155
Oct 4 12:10 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-108)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155
Oct 4 12:20 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155
Oct 4 12:40 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160
CLOSEOct 4 12:50 PMLos Angeles Rams -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155

The read

I’m laying the points because I trust the Rams to sustain offense more than I trust Philadelphia’s depleted receiving group to answer. Across three 2026 games, Los Angeles has gained 6.92 yards per play on first and second down against Philadelphia’s 4.52. My read is that the Rams can create manageable situations and keep their run and pass options available. Philadelphia losing Zack Baun adds to that opportunity; he played 92% of its defensive snaps last week before the October 2 OUT report.

The Eagles’ problem goes beyond their seven-point loss at Chicago: DeVonta Smith played every offensive snap in that game and is now OUT, alongside Dallas Goedert. Wicks and the listed replacement options give Hurts somewhere to go, but I expect those losses to make answering sustained Rams possessions harder.

The strongest case against laying 3.5 is Los Angeles’ negative red-zone EPA and six giveaways through three games. Donald and Watson being OUT also gives Philadelphia an opening, while Nacua remains questionable. Those concerns make the extra half-point meaningful. I still favor the Rams’ ability to generate scoring opportunities enough to pay -115, with modest confidence.

Injuries noted

Los Angeles Rams: Justin Dedich (IR-R) — Dedich (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Eddie Walls III (IR) — The Rams placed Walls (undisclosed) on their injured reserve list Thursday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Matthew Caldwell (IR) — The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Daniel Rickert (IR) — Rickert (knee) reverted to the Rams' injured reserve Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Keir Thomas II (IR) — ir; Keagen Trost (IR-R) — Trost (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Myles Garrett (IR) — Garrett (knee) is facing a six-week recovery from surgery on his left knee, but the pass rusher is determined to be back before then, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and ESPN reports.; Nate Landman (Questionable) — Landman (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Kamren Kinchens (Questionable) — Kinchens (hamstring) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Puka Nacua (Questionable) — Nacua (hip) officially was listed as a limited participant on Thursday's injury report, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.; Ronnie Rivers (IR) — The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday.; Terrance Ferguson (IR) — Ferguson (ankle) is out for Sunday's game against Philadelphia, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Colby Parkinson (Questionable) — Parkinson (shoulder/knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.; Jaylen Watson (Out) — Watson (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Aaron Donald (Out) — Donald (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.; Josh Wallace (Questionable) — questionable; Josaiah Stewart (Questionable) — questionable

Philadelphia Eagles: Tucker Large (NFI-R) — Undisclosed; Jakorian Bennett (IR-R) — Bennett (knee) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Eagles on Sunday.; Grant Calcaterra (IR-R) — Calcaterra (back) was placed on injured reserve by the Eagles on Sunday with a designation to return.; Andre' Sam (IR) — Sam (foot) reverted to the Eagles' injured-reserve list Monday, Andrew DiCecco of InsideTheBirds.com reports.; Eli Stowers (IR) — The Eagles placed Stowers (quadriceps/hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Johnny Wilson (IR) — Wilson (knee) reverted to Philadelphia's injured reserve Saturday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Marcus Epps (Out) — Epps (groin) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Rams.; Landon Dickerson (IR) — The Eagles placed Dickerson (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Chris McPherson of the team's official site reports.; Dallas Goedert (Out) — Goedert (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Rams.; Will Shipley (Questionable) — Shipley (foot) did not participate in Wednesday's practice.; DeVonta Smith (Out) — Smith (hamstring) remained sidelined for Friday's practice, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports.; Hollywood Brown (Out) — Brown (ankle) is listed as out ahead of Sunday's game against the Rams.; Fred Johnson (Out) — Johnson (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Rams.; Zack Baun (Out) — Baun (concussion) won't play in Sunday's game against the Rams.; Jihaad Campbell (Questionable) — Campbell (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Jordan Davis (Questionable) — Calf; Moro Ojomo (Questionable) — questionable

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI

    7.13 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 620 passing yards, completed 64.4% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

  • Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR

    7.86 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 872 passing yards, completed 60.4% of his passes and averaged 7.86 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

  • LAR: 101.3 rushing yards allowed per game to PHI's 127.3

    26 YPG

    LAR is at 101.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; PHI is at 127.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

PASS RUSH

  • LAR: 1.67 sacks taken per game to PHI's 2.67

    1 SACKS

    LAR is at 1.67 sacks taken per game over 3 games; PHI is at 2.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 1.77 over 17 games and PHI at 2.33 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • LAR: 66.3 offensive plays per game to PHI's 57.3

    9 PLAYS

    LAR is at 66.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; PHI is at 57.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 63.9 over 17 games and PHI at 59.4 over 17 games.

  • LAR: 31:05 time of possession per game to PHI's 28:44

    2:21 TOP

    LAR is at 31:05 time of possession per game over 3 games; PHI is at 28:44 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 30:46 over 17 games and PHI at 30:11 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • LAR: 1 takeaways per game to PHI's 0

    1 TO

    The Rams have forced 1 turnover a game over three games, and Philadelphia has yet to force one. Zero takeaways in three games is more likely bad luck than a permanent trait, since turnovers bounce around. For this game, the Rams have the edge on extra possessions so far, but the Eagles' number is the one most likely to change.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • LAR: 6.33 yards per play to PHI's 5.33

    1 Y/P

    The Rams average 6.33 yards a play to the Eagles' 5.33, close to last season's 6.15 and 5.27, so this gap has held up. In their last game the Rams had 7 plays of 20-plus yards, including Stafford hitting Davante Adams for 49 and Konata Mumpfield for a 48-yard score, while Philadelphia had 2. The Rams win with chunk plays, and the Eagles grind it out, so a Rams offense that hits deep shots on the road changes how this game goes.

RED ZONE

  • PHI: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to LAR's 50%

    16.7 PP

    LAR is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; PHI is at 66.7% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 63.2% over 17 games and PHI at 70.5% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • LAR: 284 pass yards a game to PHI's 191.7

    284 VS 191.7

    The Rams are throwing for 284 yards a game, Philadelphia 191.7, over three games. This is close to last season, when the Rams sat at 268.1 and the Eagles at 194.3, so the gap looks real. Philadelphia has to keep Rams receivers in front of them and win with a slower, ground-heavy game. Player prop bettors should note the Rams passing volume has held steady across two seasons.

COVERAGE

  • LAR: 4.5 yards per play allowed to PHI's 5.17

    0.67 Y/P

    The Rams allow 4.5 yards per play over 3 games, a stingy mark, while Philadelphia gives up 5.17. That is the cleaner efficiency stat here, since it ignores how many snaps a defense faced. Three games can be shaped by weak offenses, and the sheet does not tell us who they played. If the Rams number holds up, it favors them in a game where Philadelphia has to move the ball steadily.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • PHI lead the series with LAR since 2025

    1-0 SERIES

    This is one game: Philadelphia beat the Rams 33-26 at home on Sep 21 last season. It was a high-scoring game decided by one score, so the Eagles winning the series counts for little on its own. With the matchup back in Philadelphia, that result says more about these offenses being able to score on each other than about who has the edge.

REPLACEMENT

  • Lane Johnson (OT) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    Johnson, Philadelphia's tackle, sat out Sunday's 24-20 loss to the Rams for a personal reason, with no injury involved. That means his absence should not carry over the way a physical injury would. Watch for word on his return before pricing the Eagles' line play into future games.

  • Terrance Ferguson (TE) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Ferguson is on injured reserve with an ankle injury and is out for Sunday's game in Philadelphia. The Rams lose a tight end, so the remaining tight ends pick up his snaps and any short targets he would have drawn. Factor that in if you are looking at Rams tight end props.

  • Ronnie Rivers (RB) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Rivers has been on injured reserve since Sep 24 with a calf injury, so he misses the Philadelphia game. He is a depth running back, and the Rams' other backs carry the load. His absence changes little for Los Angeles.

  • Jordan Davis (DT) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Davis is questionable for Philadelphia against the Rams, with no injury detail listed. He anchors the middle of the Eagles' defensive line, so his status matters for how well they hold up against the run. If he sits, Rams running backs get a friendlier interior, so watch the inactive list before betting Rams rushing numbers.

  • Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Garrett is on injured reserve after surgery on his left knee and faces a six-week recovery, though the pass rusher wants to be back sooner. That rules Garrett out against Philadelphia, which takes the Rams' top edge threat off the field. Expect less pressure on the Eagles quarterback, and treat any early return talk as hopeful until it shows up on the practice report.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Jaylen Watson

    Out

    Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

  • Aaron Donald

    Out

    Back · Did not practice · Out

  • Dallas Goedert

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Marcus Epps

    Out

    Groin · Did not practice · Out

  • Hollywood Brown

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Jonathan Greenard

    Out

    Full practice · Out

  • Fred Johnson

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • DeVonta Smith

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Zack Baun

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • Josaiah Stewart

    Questionable

    Groin · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Colby Parkinson

    Questionable

    Knee, Shoulder · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Alaric Jackson

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Tyler Higbee

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Byron Young

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Jihaad Campbell

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Nate Landman

    FP

    Full practice

  • Will Shipley

    FP

    Full practice

  • Josh Wallace

    FP

    Full practice

  • Puka Nacua

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kamren Kinchens

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonathan Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tank Bigsby

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jordan Davis

    FP

    Full practice

  • Byron Young

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jalen Carter

    FP

    Full practice

  • Moro Ojomo

    FP

    Full practice

  • Davante Adams

    FP

    Full practice

  • Darius Cooper

    FP

    Full practice

  • Poona Ford

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • LAR: 284 team passing yards per game to PHI's 191.7

    92.3 YPG

    The Rams throw for 284 yards a game against the Eagles' 191.7, and both are close to last season's numbers, 268.1 and 194.3. That consistency makes this a style clash that should hold: the Rams win through the air, the Eagles keep their passing volume modest. Expect Philadelphia to try to control tempo on the ground and limit Rams possessions, which matters for passing yard props on both sides.

  • LAR: 21.3 first downs per game to PHI's 15.7

    5.7 FD

    The Rams are getting 21.3 first downs a game to Philadelphia's 15.7 through three games. Both are below last season, 23.3 and 18, but the gap between them is similar. The Rams are the team that keeps drives alive, while the Eagles have been more stop-and-start, which favors the Rams holding the ball longer.

  • LAR: 7.37 yards per pass attempt to PHI's 5.93

    1.43 Y/A

    LAR is at 7.37 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; PHI is at 5.93 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 7.24 over 17 games and PHI at 6.33 over 17 games.

  • LAR: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to PHI's 33.3%

    16.7 PP

    LAR is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; PHI is at 33.3% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAR was at 66.7% over 17 games and PHI at 52.4% over 17 games.

  • LAR (1-2) at PHI (2-1)

    -12 PT GAP

    Philadelphia is 2-1 but -14, a record that flatters the Eagles, while the Rams are 1-2 at -2, close to even. Both lost last time out, and each split is one game: Rams 0-1 away, Eagles 1-0 at home. Over three games, margin is the better read, and it favors the Rams. If the line leans on Philadelphia's record, the road side has a case.

AFTER GARY

  • LAR -3.5 → -3.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was -3.5; the market closed at -3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    SAQUON BARKLEYRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 14.5
    NFLPhiladelphia Eagles· -117

    Saquon Barkley
    Receiving Yards under 14.5

    -117 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

    Philadelphia Eagles

    I’m taking Barkley under 14.5 receiving yards at -117. His three 2026 games produced minus two, 11 and minus three receiving yards, with two targets in each game. The positional matchup supports modest gains: Los Angeles has allowed running backs 101 receiving yards on 18 catches across three games. Those are combined totals for opposing backs, but they support my expectation that a small number of Barkley catches can stay below 15 yards.

    The strongest counter is that Philadelphia’s fresh absences could expand his receiving work. Smith and Goedert being out creates a reason to question the recent target pattern. Barkley also recorded receiving games of 52, 41 and 24 yards within the nine listed games from 2025. One productive screen could beat this line without requiring a large workload.

  • GARY'S PICK
    SAQUON BARKLEYRECEPTIONS UNDER 2.5
    NFLPhiladelphia Eagles· -155

    Saquon Barkley
    Receptions under 2.5

    -155 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

    Philadelphia Eagles

    I’m taking Barkley under 2.5 receptions at -155. That price needs a convincing workload case, and he has drawn two targets and caught one pass in each of his three 2026 games, despite substantial changes in his rushing workload. Philadelphia has gained just 4.52 yards per play on first and second down this season. Against a Rams defense allowing 4.54 yards per play across three games, I expect sustaining possessions to remain difficult, limiting opportunities for that receiving workload to grow.

    The strongest contrary evidence is Philadelphia’s fresh receiving losses. Smith, Goedert and Brown being out could send additional throws toward Barkley, especially if the Eagles chase the Rams as I expect. Los Angeles has also allowed 18 running back catches across three games, so this defense has permitted opportunities at his position.

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