Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
O/U 53.5 · SPREAD Seattle Seahawks -6.5 · Lumen Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Seattle Seahawks -7 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Push
- Final score
- 23-30
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 40 moves| Market | Opened Sep 28 4:47 PM | Close Oct 4 4:06 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-105) | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | Price |
| TOTAL | 43 (-110) | 42.5 (-115) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Seattle Seahawks -320 | Seattle Seahawks -340 | −20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 28 4:47 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -320 · Los Angeles Chargers +250 |
| Sep 28 5:15 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -320 · Los Angeles Chargers +250 |
| Sep 28 5:25 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -330 · Los Angeles Chargers +260 |
| Sep 29 6:00 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| Sep 29 2:04 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| Sep 29 11:09 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Sep 30 6:30 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Sep 30 6:35 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Sep 30 9:05 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 12:35 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 9:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 10:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 11:02 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 12:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 12:32 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 1:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 5:04 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 6:25 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 7:36 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 7:56 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 8:46 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 1 11:47 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 2 9:00 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 2 5:32 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 3 11:09 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 3 5:12 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 4 6:50 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| Oct 4 9:21 AM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +285 |
| Oct 4 12:40 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +285 |
| Oct 4 1:10 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 4 1:41 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 4 1:51 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 4 2:35 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 4 2:57 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 4 3:08 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275 |
| Oct 4 3:18 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| Oct 4 3:25 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| Oct 4 3:46 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| Oct 4 3:55 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| Oct 4 3:56 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
| CLOSEOct 4 4:06 PM | Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) | 42.5 (-115) | Seattle Seahawks -340 · Los Angeles Chargers +265 |
The read
My bet is on the Chargers offense failing in this building against this defense. LA ranks near the bottom of the league at -0.188 EPA per play. Herbert is at 59.1%, with 4 INTs and a 27.4 QBR, and Harbaugh publicly told the QB to 'be better.' Most of the damage is self-inflicted. At Buffalo, a second-and-goal from the 1 fell apart on false starts that Herbert blamed on cadence. The offense drew five penalties in the third quarter, dropped passes, and Alt already has six penalties. You don't fix cadence and communication problems by going to Lumen Field, and Seattle has won eight straight at home. The matchup is bad too. LA runs more than expected (pass rate over expected -8.46) and wants wide zone runs, but Seattle is first in run-defense EPA (-0.371), hasn't allowed a rushing TD, and gives up 3.89 yards per play and 4.96 per pass attempt. LA's line is thinner than it was: Pipkins is on IR, Awosika is out, and Strange has allowed 7 pressures. Even with a +5 turnover game at Buffalo, this offense scored 16 and lost. Without that kind of help, I don't see 17 or more points here.
The second reason is late-game play. LA has been outscored 33-3 in fourth quarters. Seattle scores 12.7 and allows 3.0 in the fourth. The Chargers lost their three games by 12, 12 and 8, and each one slipped away late. That's the pattern a 7-point spread needs.
I also think Seattle's loss is being misread. Seattle outgained Washington 437-258 and averaged 6.8 yards per play to 4.0. They lost because of a 3-0 turnover gap, including a tipped INT and a pick-six, and Washington scored 21 points off those turnovers. That's a bad result, not a bad performance. Darnold returned and threw for 379 yards and 4 TDs. Smith-Njigba (405 yards, 6 TDs, 37% target share) now faces a secondary where Derwin James (hamstring), Donte Jackson (concussion) and Molden are all questionable, against a defense allowing 7.98 yards per pass attempt. Dalvin Tomlinson being out on LA's interior line also helps a weak Seattle run game.
The case against Seattle is real. The backfield is thin: Price is on IR, Charbonnet is on PUP, Holani is questionable, and the team ran for 44 yards last week. Seattle has failed on fourth down at the goal line in back-to-back weeks, and its red-zone EPA is -0.016. Settling for field goals is exactly how a -7 favorite ends in a push or a non-cover. The line also moved from 6.5 to 7, so I'm paying -115 at the key number while Polymarket sits at -6.5. Darnold's turnovers and Genesis Smith's ball skills could give LA the short fields it needs. Seattle's 2026 offense numbers come mostly from Drew Lock, so Darnold's sample this year is one game. And inactives weren't posted when this research was done, so the James and McConkey statuses are still open. I'm still laying it. Seattle doesn't need a good run game when Smith-Njigba is getting 37% of the targets, and LA's offense hasn't given me a reason to think it can keep up for four quarters on the road. I'm passing on the LA moneyline at +295, because that bet needs this offense to play its best game of the year.
Injuries noted
Los Angeles Chargers: Isaiah World (NFI-R) — nfi-r; Tyler Biadasz (IR) — The Chargers placed Biadasz (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Scott Matlock (IR-R) — Matlock (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Chargers on Sunday with a designation to return.; Denzel Perryman (IR) — ir; Branson Taylor (IR-R) — The Chargers placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Ian Rapoport of ESPN and NFL Network reports.; Ladd McConkey (Questionable) — McConkey (foot), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Seattle, is likely to suit up, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Elijah Molden (Questionable) — Molden (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.; KeAndre Lambert-Smith (IR) — The Chargers placed Lambert-Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Trey Pipkins III (IR) — The Chargers placed Pipkins (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Dalvin Tomlinson (Out) — Tomlinson (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.; Derwin James Jr. (Questionable) — James (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.; David Njoku (IR) — The Chargers placed Njoku (fibula) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Kayode Awosika (Out) — out; Charlie Kolar (Out) — Kolar (forearm) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.; Brenen Thompson (Out) — Thompson (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.; Trey Lance (Questionable) — Lance (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Seattle.; Donte Jackson (Questionable) — Jackson (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.; Justin Eboigbe (Questionable) — questionable; Keaton Mitchell (Questionable) — Mitchell (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (PUP-R) — Charbonnet (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday and Friday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Robbie Ouzts (IR) — Neck; Jake Bobo (IR) — Knee; Irv Charles (IR-R) — Charles (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Seahawks on Sunday with a designation to return, John Boyle of the team's official website reports.; Bud Clark (IR) — The Seahawks placed Clark (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.; Ty Okada (Questionable) — Okada (hamstring) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Chargers.; Mason Richman (IR) — The Seahawks placed Richman (leg) on injured reserve Tuesday, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.; Anthony Bradford (IR) — The Seahawks placed Bradford (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.; Brandon Pili (Questionable) — questionable; Jadarian Price (IR) — Price (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; George Holani (Questionable) — Holani (ribs) remained limited in Thursday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Julian Love (Questionable) — Love (calf) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.; Jarran Reed (Questionable) — questionable; Grey Zabel (Questionable) — questionable; Chazz Surratt (Questionable) — questionable
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC
7.13 Y/AThrough 3 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 627 passing yards, completed 59.1% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA
8.34 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Sam Darnold threw for 392 passing yards, completed 68.1% of his passes and averaged 8.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
TRENCHES
SEA: 87 rushing yards allowed per game to LAC's 116.3
29.3 YPGLAC is at 116.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; SEA is at 87 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.
LAC: 4.2 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 3.63
0.57 Y/CLAC is at 4.2 yards per rush attempt over 3 games; SEA is at 3.63 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAC was at 4.58 over 17 games and SEA at 4.17 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
SEA: 1 sack taken per game to LAC's 2.67
1.67 SACKSSeattle's quarterback has gone down once a game, while the Chargers have given up 2.67 a game through three. Last season told the same story, LAC at 3.75 and SEA at 2.08, so this gap has a long track record behind it. With Seattle at home, the Chargers' protection is the side under pressure, and drives that stall on long downs are the main risk to their offense.
PACE & SCRIPT
SEA: 25 points per game to LAC's 14.7
10.3 PPGSeattle is scoring 25 a game over three games, a little under last season's 28.4, so that looks steady. The Chargers have dropped from 21.6 to 14.7, the sharper change and the one more likely to move back up. If Los Angeles is still stuck in the teens on the road, the Seahawks control the game, but a Chargers rebound would tighten it.
SEA: 16.7 points allowed per game to LAC's 25.3
8.7 PPGLAC is at 25.3 points allowed per game over 3 games; SEA is at 16.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAC was at 20 over 17 games and SEA at 17.2 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
SEA: 1.33 turnovers committed per game to LAC's 2
0.67 TOLAC is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; SEA is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAC was at 1.24 over 17 games and SEA at 1.65 over 17 games.
LAC: 2 takeaways per game to SEA's 1.33
0.67 TOLAC is at 2 takeaways per game over 3 games; SEA is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.
SEA: 0.67 interceptions thrown per game to LAC's 1.33
0.67 INTLAC is at 1.33 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; SEA is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAC was at 0.82 over 17 games and SEA at 0.88 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
SEA: 6.13 yards per play to LAC's 5.23
0.9 Y/PSeattle averages 6.13 yards a play to the Chargers' 5.23 through three games, very close to last season's 5.98 and 5.19. That steadiness means this gap is likely real. Seattle's offense moves the ball more efficiently, and with the game in Seattle, the Chargers need longer drives to keep pace.
RED ZONE
SEA: 4 red-zone trips per game to LAC's 3
1 TRIPSLAC is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; SEA is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season LAC was at 3.35 over 17 games and SEA at 3.47 over 17 games.
MISMATCH
SEA: 266.7 pass yards a game to LAC's 195.7
266.7 VS 195.7Seattle is throwing for 266.7 yards a game over three games, the Chargers 195.7. Seattle was at 228.1 last season and the Chargers at 212.2, so Seattle is running hot and the Chargers cold. Expect both to move toward those marks, but for now the Chargers need long drives on the road to keep Seattle's passing game off the field.
COVERAGE
SEA: 3.77 yards per play allowed to LAC's 5.4
1.63 Y/PSeattle allows 3.77 yards per play, while the Chargers allow 5.4. That is a meaningful gap over 3 games: Seattle is limiting chunk gains on nearly every snap. Yards per play is one of the steadier defensive numbers, though 3 games is still early. Seattle's offense should find moving the ball easier than the Chargers do, which shapes how you think about the side and total.
SEA: 141.7 passing yards allowed per game to LAC's 233
91.3 YPGSeattle allows 141.7 passing yards a game, while the Chargers allow 233. Over 3 games, Seattle's pass defense has been stingy, though game script and opponents faced shape these averages. Some regression is likely as the season moves on. Chargers passing props face a tougher setup here than Seattle's receivers do.
SEA: 26.8% third downs allowed to LAC's 40%
13.2 PPSeattle allows just 26.8% on third down, and the Chargers allow 40%. Three games is a small sample, and a rate that low usually drifts up. Right now the Seahawks defense is getting stops, which gives them the edge in drive length at home. That points toward Seattle controlling possession more than Los Angeles.
REPLACEMENT
Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA
PUP-RCharbonnet is on the reserve physically unable to perform list with a knee injury, so he isn't on the active roster yet. He was limited at practice Thursday and Friday, a sign he is working his way back. A player moving off that list still needs the team to activate him, so check his status before the Chargers game. Until he is activated, Seattle's rushing props should be priced as if he isn't there.
Jadarian Price (RB) is on injured reserve for SEA
IRPrice went on injured reserve Saturday with a chest injury, so he is out against the Chargers. With Charbonnet still on the PUP list, Seattle's backfield is down another body. The remaining healthy backs pick up the carries.
David Njoku (TE) is on injured reserve for LAC
IRNjoku is on injured reserve with a fibula injury after the Chargers placed him there Sep 23. He is out at Seattle, so the tight end snaps and targets go to the backups on the depth chart.
Trey Pipkins III (OT) is on injured reserve for LAC
IRPipkins went on injured reserve Sep 26 with a knee injury, so he misses the game at Seattle. That takes a tackle out of the Chargers' line, and a backup fills his snaps.
Anthony Bradford (G) is on injured reserve for SEA
IRBradford went on injured reserve Sep 24 with a knee injury, so he misses the Chargers game. A backup guard takes his spot on Seattle's offensive line.
PRACTICE REPORT
Ladd McConkey
OutFoot · Limited practice · Out
Jadarian Price
OutChest · Did not practice · Out
Kayode Awosika
OutFibula · Did not practice · Out
Dalvin Tomlinson
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Charlie Kolar
OutForearm · Limited practice · Out
Brenen Thompson
OutQuadricep · Did not practice · Out
Trey Lance
QuestionableGroin · Limited practice · Questionable
Ty Okada
QuestionableHamstring · Full practice · Questionable
Chazz Surratt
QuestionableCalf · Limited practice · Questionable
Elijah Molden
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Donte Jackson
QuestionableConcussion · Full practice · Questionable
Derwin James Jr.
QuestionableHamstring, Not injury related - resting player · Limited practice · Questionable
George Holani
LPLimited practice
Brandon Pili
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Khalil Mack
FPFull practice
Jarran Reed
FPFull practice
Grey Zabel
FPFull practice
Nick Emmanwori
FPFull practice
Julian Love
FPFull practice
Keaton Mitchell
FPFull practice
Bud Dupree
FPFull practice
Justin Eboigbe
FPFull practice
Rashid Shaheed
FPFull practice
Leonard Williams
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
LAC (0-3) at SEA (2-1)
+57 PT GAPThe Chargers are 0-3 and -32, so the losses have not been close. Seattle is 2-1, +25 and won its only home game, though it comes in off a loss. Three games is a small sample, and one road game tells little about the Chargers away. The Seahawks have the better profile across the board, so look at whether the number already reflects how far apart these two have played.
STREAK
LAC has lost 3 straight
L3The Chargers are 0-3 and head to Seattle still without a win. Three games is a small sample and the opponents are not on the sheet, so this could be a slow start against good teams as much as a bad roster. Winless teams often get marked down hard, and road dogs in that spot can carry value. Judge whether the spread prices this team or just its record.
AFTER GARY
SEA -7 → -7
NO MOVEGary's number was -7; the same book now shows -7.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKEMANUEL WILSONRUSHING RECEIVING YARDS UNDER 63.5
I'm taking Emanuel Wilson under 63.5 rushing plus receiving yards at -116. The number is bigger than its own pieces. His rushing line is 47.5 and his receiving line is 6.5, which adds up to 54. The combined line sits about ten yards above that, on a back who has one target and zero catches through three games and averaged about seven receiving yards a game across six 2025 games where he had any. Almost this whole ticket has to come on the ground.
The ground has been rough. His 2026 rushing games read 14, 92 and 3. Seattle ran for 44 yards on 18 carries at Washington, with 19 of those after halftime, and Wilson had 9 carries for 14 yards on 24 of 67 snaps. His work also skews toward the goal line: 9 carries inside the 20 this year, 6 of them inside the 5, and no touchdowns. Those snaps use up attempts and give back almost no yardage. LA has allowed 312 yards on 77 running back carries, roughly four a pop. At that rate he needs around 16 carries with no help from the passing game to get here. Holani has been the receiving back, with 50 receiving yards to Wilson's zero, and Seattle just activated Velus Jones Jr., so the touches still get split.
The case against me is real. Price went on IR Saturday and Charbonnet is still on PUP, which makes Wilson the lead back in a three game sample where he was never the clear lead. Holani is questionable with a rib injury, and if he sits, Wilson's carries jump. The game script I backed with Seattle minus 7 is the same one that fed him 21 carries for 92 yards at Arizona. Dalvin Tomlinson is out for LA, and James Cook ran for 154 on this defense last week. A big lead and 20 carries could blow through this number. I'll still take a line that is pricing a pass-catching role he doesn't have.
- GARY'S PICKJUSTIN HERBERTRUSHING YARDS UNDER 21.5
I'm taking Justin Herbert under 21.5 rushing yards at -115. His three games this year went 17, 2 and 29, about 16 a game on four carries a game. McDaniel's offense is built on timing throws and wide zone handoffs, and Herbert hasn't been asked to run. The market keeps going the other way. His rushing line was 19.5, then 18.5, then 20.5, and now it's 21.5, the highest of the season, while his production hasn't moved.
Seattle is a bad place to find rushing room. The defense has allowed 65 quarterback rushing yards across three games, and over all of 2025 it gave up 292 to quarterbacks in 17 games, under 18 a game against a full schedule. Lawrence, Hall, Nwosu and Leonard Williams rush with discipline and keep the pocket closed off, and the Seattle linebackers rally fast. Seattle's defense sits at 3.89 yards per play allowed. Scramble lanes against this front close quickly.
The strongest argument against me is game script and pressure. If LA trails by more than a touchdown in the fourth, Herbert drops back more and some of those dropbacks turn into scrambles. Seattle blitzes a lot, with Witherspoon and Drake Thomas sending pressure, and an all-out blitz can leave the middle empty. Washington beat Seattle last week partly on a Mariota third-and-7 run. Cole Strange has allowed seven pressures, so Herbert will get flushed some. The 2025 version of Herbert ran plenty, with games of 42, 57, 62 and 66, and three games is a small sample to call that version gone. One long scramble covers most of this line. I'm still siding with the current offense, the current usage and a defense that doesn't give quarterbacks yards.
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