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NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 8:20 PM

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

O/U 56.5 · SPREAD Denver Broncos -3.5 · Empower Field at Mile High

GARY'S PICK
Rams -2.5
NFL@ Broncos· -104

Rams
-2.5

-104 · LOST · LAR 26 · DEN 30

Broncos

The pick & result

Published pick
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 -104
Published odds
-104
Result
Lost
Final score
26-30

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 48 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 22 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 27 8:13 PM
Move
SPREADDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -0.5 (-105)−2
TOTAL45.5 (-110)44 (-110)−1½
MONEYLINELos Angeles Rams -140Los Angeles Rams -115+25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 22 6:00 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 22 8:30 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)45.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 22 9:31 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 22 2:55 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-105)45.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 22 5:57 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-105)45.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Sep 22 8:58 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-105)45 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Sep 23 8:07 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)45 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Sep 24 6:00 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Sep 24 11:02 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 24 5:15 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 24 5:46 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 24 6:47 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 24 8:47 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 24 9:48 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 25 12:48 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 25 6:00 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 25 10:31 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Sep 25 4:03 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 10:01 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 12:01 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 2:32 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 4:33 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 5:03 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 5:33 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 6:34 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 26 8:34 PMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-115)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 27 5:00 AMDenver Broncos +2.5 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 27 7:00 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -125 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 8:00 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 27 8:30 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -135 · Denver Broncos +110
Sep 27 9:00 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)43.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 9:31 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)43.5 (-115)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 11:22 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)43.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 11:53 AMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44.5 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 12:14 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 12:34 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44.5 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 12:44 PMDenver Broncos +2 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 5:20 PMDenver Broncos +1.5 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -130 · Denver Broncos +105
Sep 27 5:50 PMDenver Broncos +1.5 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -120 · Denver Broncos +100
Sep 27 6:00 PMDenver Broncos +1.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -120 · Denver Broncos +100
Sep 27 6:11 PMDenver Broncos +1 (-110)44.5 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105
Sep 27 6:21 PMDenver Broncos +1 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105
Sep 27 7:02 PMDenver Broncos +1 (-110)44.5 (-105)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105
Sep 27 7:22 PMDenver Broncos +0.5 (-105)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105
Sep 27 7:32 PMDenver Broncos +1 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105
Sep 27 7:50 PMDenver Broncos -0.5 (-105)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105
Sep 27 7:52 PMDenver Broncos +1 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105
Sep 27 8:03 PMDenver Broncos +0.5 (-110)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -110 · Denver Broncos -110
CLOSESep 27 8:13 PMDenver Broncos -0.5 (-105)44 (-110)Los Angeles Rams -115 · Denver Broncos -105

The read

The read I trust is that the Rams are the more complete team right now, and the two matchups that decide this game both tilt their way. Denver's 2025 identity was a sack-driven defense (76 sacks on 770 opponent dropbacks), but in the 2026 sample that has not shown up — 4 sacks on 64 opponent dropbacks (6.25%) — while the Rams' line has allowed 1 sack in 61 dropbacks, so Los Angeles can keep Stafford clean and on schedule. On the other side, Denver's offense is the real problem: 15.0 ppg, -0.087 EPA/play, Nix at a 41.2 QBR with 2 TD/2 INT, and a red-zone offense converting 42.9% (33.3% success, -0.34 EPA) against a Rams defense allowing 16.5 ppg, 4.71 Y/P, zero rushing TDs and the best red-zone EPA allowed in the sample (-0.297).

The trump card is the run game: the Rams average 142.5 rush yds/gm at 5.0 YPC (Williams 5.5, Corum 6.0) against a Denver front allowing 157.5 rush yds/gm, 22.0 ppg (EPA +0.066 allowed) and a glaring 80% short-yardage conversion rate. That lets LA sustain drives and take the air out of the home crowd. Supporting: -2.5 sits below the key number 3 (the most common NFL margin cashes the Rams side), -104 is a fair price for the clearly better offense, and Adams (11-221-2) gives Stafford a true No.

1 even with Nacua doubtful. I've held the counter in view — Nacua (hip) doubtful, Kinchens doubtful, Garrett on IR, LA's first road game, altitude, Denver's 14-3 2025 and the dropped 44.5 total making a tight game plausible (where +2.5 would bail Denver). But Denver's current offense is bad enough and its run/short-yardage defense leaky enough that I'll lay the small number rather than take the points.

Injuries noted

Los Angeles Rams: Justin Dedich (IR-R) — Dedich (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Eddie Walls III (IR) — The Rams placed Walls (undisclosed) on their injured reserve list Thursday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Matthew Caldwell (IR) — The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Daniel Rickert (IR) — Rickert (knee) reverted to the Rams' injured reserve Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Keir Thomas II (IR) — ir; Keagen Trost (IR-R) — Trost (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.; Myles Garrett (IR) — Garrett (knee) is facing a six-week recovery from surgery on his left knee, but the pass rusher is determined to be back before then, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and ESPN reports.; Nate Landman (Questionable) — Landman (shoulder) was a limited participant in Wednesday's estimated practice, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Kamren Kinchens (Doubtful) — Kinchens (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against Denver, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.; Puka Nacua (Doubtful) — Nacua (hip), who is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game at Denver, has been hampered by a groin injury that has impacted his explosiveness, and while the Rams haven't taken surgery "entirely off the table," the issue is considered "short term," with a return possible sooner rather than later, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jordan Whittington (Questionable) — Whittington (quadriceps) was a limited participant in practice Thursday, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Ronnie Rivers (IR) — The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday.; Terrance Ferguson (Questionable) — Ferguson was limited at Wednesday's walkthrough due to an ankle injury, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.; Alaric Jackson (Questionable) — questionable; Colby Parkinson (Questionable) — Parkinson (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's contest at Denver, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.

Denver Broncos: Caleb Lohner (IR-R) — Lohner (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos on Sunday with a designation to return, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports.; Nick Gargiulo (PUP-R) — Gargiulo (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Michael Deiter (IR) — ir; Matt Henningsen (IR) — ir; Levelle Bailey (IR) — Bailey (leg) reverted to the Broncos' injured-reserve list Friday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; Frank Crum (IR-R) — Crum (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Marvin Mims Jr. (Questionable) — Mims (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.; RJ Harvey (Questionable) — Harvey (hamstring) was spotted on the field for the media-access portion of Thursday's practice, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports.; J.K. Dobbins (Questionable) — Dobbins (hip) was spotted on the field for the media-access portion of Thursday's practice, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports.; Jonah Coleman (IR) — Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR

    8.61 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 482 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 8.61 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN

    7.1 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 419 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • LAR: 113 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 157.5

    44.5 YPG

    Los Angeles has contained opposing rushing attacks better than Denver through 2 games. That is an early matchup point for a game where the ground game can determine how often offenses stay on schedule.

PASS RUSH

  • LAR: 0.5 sacks taken per game to DEN's 2

    1.5 SACKS

    LAR is at 0.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 1.77 over 17 games and DEN at 1.77 over 17 games.

  • DEN: 2 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1

    1 SACKS

    LAR is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • LAR: 16.5 points allowed per game to DEN's 22

    5.5 PPG

    LAR is at 16.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 20.4 over 17 games and DEN at 18.3 over 17 games.

  • LAR: 58.5 offensive plays per game to DEN's 53

    5.5 PLAYS

    LAR is at 58.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DEN is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 63.9 over 17 games and DEN at 64.2 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • DEN: 1.5 turnovers committed per game to LAR's 2

    0.5 TO

    LAR is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 0.88 over 17 games and DEN at 1 over 17 games.

  • DEN: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to LAR's 1

    0.5 FUM

    LAR is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 0.41 over 17 games and DEN at 0.35 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • LAR: 6.55 yards per play to DEN's 5.15

    1.4 Y/P

    The Rams have been far more efficient per snap through 2 games and are above their 6.15 from last season. Denver sits below its 5.32 from last season. Los Angeles has the early edge in sustaining productive offense, but 2 games can be shaped by opponents and a few explosive plays.

RED ZONE

  • LAR: 40% red-zone scoring allowed to DEN's 57.1%

    17.1 PP

    LAR is at 40% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DEN is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

MISMATCH

  • LAR: 142.5 rush yards a game to DEN's 82.5

    142.5 VS 82.5

    The Rams are running for 142.5 yards a game through 2 games, compared with 82.5 for Denver. Los Angeles is above its 126.6-yard mark last season, while Denver has fallen from 118.7, though both early numbers come from 2 games. The Rams can lean on the run to extend drives and control tempo; Denver needs more ground production to keep the game from tilting toward Los Angeles's preferred pace.

COVERAGE

  • LAR: 4.6 yards per play allowed to DEN's 5.4

    0.8 Y/P

    Los Angeles has limited opponents more effectively on a per-play basis than Denver through 2 games. The Rams have the better early defensive efficiency marker, but the 2-game sample can move quickly.

  • LAR: 38.5% third downs allowed to DEN's 48.3%

    9.8 PP

    Los Angeles has been better at ending drives on third down than Denver through 2 games. That gives the Rams an early situational edge, though 2 games do not establish how either defense will hold up over time.

REPLACEMENT

  • Jaylen Watson (CB) is out for LAR

    OUT

    Watson is out for the rest of Sunday night with a shoulder injury, so the Rams will finish the game without one of their cornerbacks. The injury happened during this matchup with Denver, making this an in-game adjustment for Los Angeles' secondary. Denver can test the replacement coverage as the Rams sort out the snaps Watson would have handled.

  • J.K. Dobbins (RB) is questionable for DEN

    QUESTIONABLE

    Questionable for the Rams game means Dobbins has a real shot, and a hip injury still had him on the field for the media-access part of Thursday's practice. He is Denver's lead back, so his status decides the carry split. A practice appearance on Sep 24 keeps him trending toward playing, with the designation still the final word. If he sits, the touches go to the backup and the rushing plan changes.

  • Jordan Whittington (WR) is questionable for LAR

    QUESTIONABLE

    Questionable with a quadriceps means Jordan Whittington could play, but a limited practice Thursday leaves him short of cleared. He is a Rams receiver, and if he sits, his snaps move to the next name on the depth chart and the passing game thins behind the top targets. Quad injuries are hard on receivers who cut and accelerate, so the tag is a real question mark. For this game at Denver, the angle is how many receivers the Rams can throw at the defense.

  • Ty Simpson (QB) is inactive for LAR

    INACTIVE

    Simpson is inactive by coach's decision for the Rams at Denver, though he will be available as the emergency third quarterback. He has no regular active role for this game. The Rams' quarterback depth only changes if their first two options cannot continue.

  • RJ Harvey (RB) is questionable for DEN

    QUESTIONABLE

    Harvey is questionable with a hamstring injury after appearing at Thursday's media-access practice. A field appearance shows some participation, not a clear game designation or workload outlook for Denver against the Rams. Bettors should wait for the final status before pricing his role in the backfield.

  • Colby Parkinson (TE) is questionable for LAR

    QUESTIONABLE

    Parkinson is questionable with a knee injury for the Rams' trip to Denver. The listing confirms his availability is unresolved, with no practice detail or replacement named on the report. Bettors should hold off on assuming his usual tight end work until the inactive list is out.

  • Nate Landman (LB) is questionable for LAR

    QUESTIONABLE

    Landman (shoulder) was a limited participant in Wednesday's estimated practice, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.

  • Sam Ehlinger (QB) is inactive for DEN

    INACTIVE

    DEN lists Sam Ehlinger as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Puka Nacua (WR) is inactive for LAR

    INACTIVE

    Nacua (hip) is inactive for Sunday's game in Denver, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 27.

  • Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) is inactive for DEN

    INACTIVE

    Mims (foot) is listed as inactive Sunday versus the Rams, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. Reported Sep 27.

  • Terrance Ferguson (TE) is questionable for LAR

    QUESTIONABLE

    LAR lists Terrance Ferguson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Alaric Jackson (OT) is questionable for LAR

    QUESTIONABLE

    LAR lists Alaric Jackson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

  • Jonah Coleman (RB) is on injured reserve for DEN

    IR

    Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 26.

  • Ronnie Rivers (RB) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

  • Lil'Jordan Humphrey (WR) is inactive for DEN

    INACTIVE

    DEN lists Lil'Jordan Humphrey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • CJ Daniels (WR) is inactive for LAR

    INACTIVE

    LAR lists CJ Daniels as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Kamren Kinchens (S) is inactive for LAR

    INACTIVE

    Kinchens (hamstring) is inactive for Sunday night's contest against Denver, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 27.

  • Tutu Atwell (WR) is inactive for LAR

    INACTIVE

    LAR lists Tutu Atwell as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR

    IR

    Garrett (knee) is facing a six-week recovery from surgery on his left knee, but the pass rusher is determined to be back before then, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and ESPN reports. Reported Sep 27.

  • Dallen Bentley (TE) is inactive for DEN

    INACTIVE

    DEN lists Dallen Bentley as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Sai'vion Jones (DE) is inactive for DEN

    INACTIVE

    DEN lists Sai'vion Jones as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Kage Casey (OT) is inactive for DEN

    INACTIVE

    DEN lists Kage Casey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Tyler Onyedim (DT) is inactive for DEN

    INACTIVE

    DEN lists Tyler Onyedim as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Maximus Pulley (S) is inactive for LAR

    INACTIVE

    LAR lists Maximus Pulley as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

  • Bill Murray (G) is inactive for LAR

    INACTIVE

    LAR lists Bill Murray as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 27.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Jonah Coleman

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Kamren Kinchens

    Doubtful

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Doubtful

  • Puka Nacua

    Doubtful

    Hip · Did not practice · Doubtful

  • Marvin Mims Jr.

    Questionable

    Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Colby Parkinson

    Questionable

    Knee · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Tyler Higbee

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Byron Young

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Aaron Donald

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Kam Curl

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Nate Landman

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Jordan Whittington

    FP

    Full practice

  • Alaric Jackson

    FP

    Full practice

  • J.K. Dobbins

    FP

    Full practice

  • Terrance Ferguson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonah Elliss

    FP

    Full practice

  • Davante Adams

    FP

    Full practice

  • RJ Harvey

    FP

    Full practice

  • Troy Franklin

    FP

    Full practice

  • Omar Speights

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • LAR: 38.9% third-down conversion rate to DEN's 26.1%

    12.8 PP

    LAR is at 38.9% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 26.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 39.6% over 17 games and DEN at 41.2% over 17 games.

  • LAR: 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate to DEN's 0%

    33.3 PP

    LAR is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 66.7% over 17 games and DEN at 50% over 17 games.

  • LAR: 243 team passing yards per game to DEN's 201.5

    41.5 YPG

    LAR is at 243 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DEN is at 201.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 268.1 over 17 games and DEN at 223.9 over 17 games.

  • LAR: 7.95 yards per pass attempt to DEN's 6.45

    1.5 Y/A

    LAR is at 7.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DEN is at 6.45 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 7.24 over 17 games and DEN at 5.99 over 17 games.

  • LAR: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to DEN's 0.5

    1 ATT/G

    LAR is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 1.76 over 17 games and DEN at 1.18 over 17 games.

  • LAR: 19 first downs per game to DEN's 15.5

    3.5 FD

    LAR is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; DEN is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAR was at 23.3 over 17 games and DEN at 19.6 over 17 games.

  • LAR (1-1) at DEN (1-1)

    -16 PT GAP

    The Rams and Broncos are each 1-1 and each enter on a win, but Los Angeles is +2 while Denver is -14. Denver won its only home game, while the Rams have no road result listed, so the Broncos have the only direct venue evidence. Los Angeles has the better point margin, yet Denver's home result keeps the early numbers from making this a simple form comparison.

AFTER GARY

  • LAR -2.5 → -1.5

    NOW +1

    Gary's number was -2.5; the market closed at -1.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    RJ HARVEYRUSHING RECEIVING YARDS OVER 42.5
    NFLDenver Broncos· -112

    RJ Harvey
    Rushing Receiving Yards over 42.5

    -112 · CASHED · ACTUAL 47

    Denver Broncos

    The board prices Harvey's rushing and receiving yards together at 42.5, and the over is -112. His one game this season is the entire 2026 sample, and in it he touched the ball seven times against Kansas City for 41 yards, three carries for 18 and four catches for 23, so the line sits just above what a modest workload already produced. The room around him has thinned since.

    Jonah Coleman went to injured reserve Saturday with an ankle, Ronnie Rivers is on injured reserve with a calf, and J.K. Dobbins is carrying a hip. Harvey has his own questionable tag for a hamstring, though he was on the field for the open portion of Thursday's practice, which reads like a player on track to dress.

    The Rams have allowed running backs 184 yards on 43 carries and 44 yards on 10 catches across their two games, and Denver's offense has leaned on throws underneath, which is exactly where Harvey's catches came from. The strongest contrary point is the evidence itself: one game with three carries is a thin basis for a role, Dobbins could take the early-down work if the hip holds, and a touch count in the single digits needs one chunk play to clear the number. I am taking the workload growth and the receiving usage over the uncertainty of the tag.

  • GARY'S PICK
    BO NIXPASSING COMPLETIONS OVER 21.5
    NFLDenver Broncos· -103

    Bo Nix
    Passing Completions over 21.5

    -103 · LOST · ACTUAL 17

    Denver Broncos

    The board lines Nix's completions at 21.5, with the over at -103. He has thrown 31 and 28 attempts across his two games and completed 22 and 17 of them, and his prior season ran above 22 completions a game. The Rams are the stronger offense in this matchup and the spread has them favored on the road, so the game script has Denver throwing to keep pace at home.

    Los Angeles has been stingy through the air, allowing 168 passing yards a game and a low opponent passer rating, and that is the real risk in this number. If the Rams' own run game controls the clock, Denver's snap count falls and the attempt volume falls with it, and Nix's offense has managed 209.5 yards a game with him at a 41.2 QBR. The two Rams games also came against offenses that did not stress them downfield.

    I am taking the volume and the negative game script over the quality of the opposing secondary.

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