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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 12:00 PM

Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes

O/U 35.5 · SPREAD Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 · Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

GARY'S PICK
Wisconsin Moneyline
NCAAF@ Iowa· +106

Wisconsin
Moneyline

+106 · LOST · WIS 0 · IOWA 30

Iowa

The pick & result

Published pick
Wisconsin Badgers ML +106
Published odds
+106
Result
Lost
Final score
0-30

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 66 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 1:31 PM
Close
Sat 11:54 AM
Move
SPREADIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)−1
TOTAL37.5 (-118)36.5 (-105)−1
MONEYLINEIowa Hawkeyes -160Iowa Hawkeyes -130+30
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 1:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)37.5 (-118)Iowa Hawkeyes -160 · Wisconsin Badgers +130
Oct 25 2:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-108)37.5 (-105)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +135
Oct 25 3:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-110)37.5 (-102)Iowa Hawkeyes -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 25 4:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)37.5 (+100)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 25 5:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-115)36.5 (-120)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +135
Oct 25 6:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)37.5 (+100)Iowa Hawkeyes -160 · Wisconsin Badgers +135
Oct 25 10:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 25 11:32 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-115)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 26 6:00 AMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-112)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 26 9:31 AMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-108)36.5 (-112)Iowa Hawkeyes -175 · Wisconsin Badgers +150
Oct 26 11:32 AMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-108)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -175 · Wisconsin Badgers +145
Oct 26 2:33 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -175 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 26 3:33 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 26 5:33 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 26 7:03 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 26 10:05 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (+100)36.5 (-112)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 27 12:06 AMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (+100)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 27 12:36 AMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 27 12:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 27 11:05 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 28 1:18 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 28 1:48 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 2:48 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 4:48 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (+100)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 28 5:18 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-125)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +140
Oct 28 5:48 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 8:00 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 8:49 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 9:26 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 9:31 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 9:50 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 28 10:21 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Oct 29 12:21 AMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Thu 1:34 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Thu 2:02 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Thu 3:59 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-105)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Thu 5:36 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3.5 (-102)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +138
Thu 6:36 PMIowa Hawkeyes -3 (-118)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -165 · Wisconsin Badgers +135
Thu 7:06 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Thu 8:06 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Thu 9:06 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Fri 12:07 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Fri 1:57 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Fri 4:45 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-112)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 10:01 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 10:31 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-112)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 11:01 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-115)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 11:31 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-112)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Fri 12:01 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-115)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 12:55 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-115)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 2:32 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-118)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 4:02 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-115)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Fri 5:20 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-115)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Fri 5:41 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-115)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Fri 8:03 PMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-112)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 7:00 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-115)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 9:00 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-112)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 9:21 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-112)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 9:31 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 9:41 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)36.5 (-110)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 10:31 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 10:41 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)36.5 (-108)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 11:01 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)36.5 (-105)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 11:12 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)36.5 (-105)Iowa Hawkeyes -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 11:33 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)35.5 (-120)Iowa Hawkeyes -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 11:44 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-108)35.5 (-120)Iowa Hawkeyes -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
CLOSESat 11:54 AMIowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)36.5 (-105)Iowa Hawkeyes -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110

The read

Halloween at Kinnick brings a blackout crowd, drizzle and gusts to 15 mph. This one sets up as a low-scoring grind, and the market makes Iowa a slight favorite at home. I'll take No. 25 Wisconsin to win it outright at plus money.

Iowa's offense was already thin, and this week it lost its best runner. Outside the 41-24 win at Washington, the Hawkeyes have scored 10, 14 and 20 in Big Ten play, running 70 times for 225 yards in those three games. Kamari Moulton is done for the season, and Moulton supplied the long runs: 56 at Washington, plus 50 and 37 against Northern Illinois. Xavier Williams takes over after 10 carries for 25 yards over the last three games. Quarterback is uncertain too. Kirk Ferentz plans to start Hank Brown but will 'play it by ear,' and Brown's last outing was 11-of-21 with 2 interceptions off the bench at Minnesota.

The turnover gap is the heart of this bet. Wisconsin has zero giveaways in its last three games. Iowa has six in that span, four of them at Minnesota. The Badgers' defense has four interceptions over its last two games and has allowed 3, 17 and 7 points in its last three. USC scored at least 25 in every other game on its schedule, and Wisconsin held the Trojans to 7 points and -18 rushing yards, with 5 sacks.

Wisconsin's style fits the weather. The Badgers have run for 153, 160 and 228 yards in their last three games, while Iowa gave up 189 on the ground to Ohio State and 155 to Michigan. Colton Joseph's legs are a real weapon, with 141 rushing yards against Michigan State.

The risks are real. Wisconsin's passing game has barely shown up, with 58 yards against USC. The offensive line is missing RG Barrett Nelson, with center unsettled. Gavin Lahm is 1-of-3 on field goals over the last two games, and in a game this tight one missed kick can decide the winner.

Still, in a game likely decided by a turnover or a kick, I want the team that protects the ball and brings the hotter defense, and I'll happily take plus money on it. Wisconsin to win.

Injuries noted

Wisconsin Badgers: Cai Bates (out) — CB #3 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Marvin Burks Jr. (probable) — S #4 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Malachi Coleman (probable) — WR #4 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Darrion Dupree (probable) — RB #6 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Nate Palmer (doubtful) — RB #15 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Barrett Nelson (out) — OL #70 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Nolan Vils (probable) — DL #92 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report

Iowa Hawkeyes: Cody Haddad (out) — DB #0 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Tyler Brown (out) — DB #2 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Burke Gautcher (out) — LB #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brody Schaffer (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brevin Doll (out) — RB #13 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kyler Gerardy (out) — DB #19 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kamari Moulton (out) — RB #28 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Lucas Allgeyer (out) — OL #60 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Trent Wilson (out) — OL #65 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Emmanuel Olagbaju (out) — DL #88 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Colton Joseph is WIS's projected starter

    7.26 Y/A

    Colton Joseph is WIS's projected starting quarterback. Badgers On SI (Seamus Rohrer), republished by Yahoo Sports on 2026-10-30, calls Joseph 'the starting quarterback' for Wisconsin's Halloween game at Iowa. AP (2026-10-29) says he passed for 58 yards in the 24-7 win over USC, Wisconsin's last game. The 2026-10-25 Badgers On SI report card grades Joseph as the quarterback in that game and reports no in-game injury to him. I found no starter announcement from Wisconsin itself (coach, release or depth chart), so he is listed as projected, not confirmed. None of the sources I opened reported an injury designation or limited practice for Joseph this week, but I also found no Wisconsin practice-participation report, so his practice status is unverified. 2026 line: 1256 passing yards, 57.2% completions, 7.26 yards per attempt, 11-5 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • Hank Brown is IOWA's projected starter

    6.61 Y/A

    Hank Brown is IOWA's projected starting quarterback. At his Tuesday press conference on 2026-10-27, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said the plan is to start Hank Brown against Wisconsin: 'We'll see how the week goes, but right now plan to start him and play it by ear from there.' Roundtable (2026-10-27) reports that Ferentz did not formally name a starter, and Jeremy Hecklinski is still in the mix. Because the coach's plan was conditional, Brown is listed as projected, not confirmed. Hawkeyes Wire (2026-10-27) says this would be Brown's sixth start of the season. Dear Old Gold (2026-10-28) reports that Brown will start. Brown was injured against Washington on Oct. 9 and Hecklinski replaced him (Roundtable, 2026-10-27). None of the sources I opened reported a new injury to Brown in the 13-10 loss at Minnesota or gave his practice participation this week, so his practice status is unverified. 2026 line: 952 passing yards, 61.1% completions, 6.61 yards per attempt, 5-3 TD-INT over 6 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • WIS @ IOWA carries a 36.5 market total

    36.5

    The market expects this one to be a grind: 36.5 sits 15 points under the 51.5 median across 33 games on this slate, the lowest gap on the board. That number prices long drives, punts and field goals over quick touchdowns. For it to crack, one side has to hit explosive plays or win the turnover battle and score on short fields, so early chunk gains are the first sign the low expectation is wrong.

REPLACEMENT

  • Cai Bates (CB) is out for WIS

    OUT

    CB #3 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Barrett Nelson (OL) is out for WIS

    OUT

    OL #70 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Cody Haddad (DB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    DB #0 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Tyler Brown (DB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    DB #2 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Burke Gautcher (LB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    LB #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Brody Schaffer (WR) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    WR #11 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Brevin Doll (RB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    RB #13 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Kyler Gerardy (DB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    DB #19 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Kamari Moulton (RB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    RB #28 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Lucas Allgeyer (OL) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    OL #60 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Trent Wilson (OL) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    OL #65 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Emmanuel Olagbaju (DL) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    DL #88 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

TEAM RECORD

  • Big Ten game: WIS 3-1, IOWA 2-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big Ten. WIS is 3-1 against it, IOWA is 2-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

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