Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans
O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
The pick & result
- Published pick
- USC Trojans +6.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 18-30
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 58 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 1:31 PM | Close Sat 7:11 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 50.5 (-112) | 50.5 (-112) | Holds |
| MONEYLINE | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 1:31 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-105) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 25 3:31 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 25 4:31 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 25 5:31 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 25 6:31 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 6:00 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 8:31 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-105) | 51.5 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -275 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 9:31 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-105) | 51.5 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -275 · USC Trojans +220 |
| Oct 26 11:32 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-105) | 51.5 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -275 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 2:33 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 3:33 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-105) | 51.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 5:33 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 7:03 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-118) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 7:33 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-118) | 51.5 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 26 8:03 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-102) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 27 6:00 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +210 |
| Oct 27 9:00 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 27 10:31 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 27 11:01 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 27 12:31 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 27 6:02 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 27 7:35 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 28 12:36 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 28 8:31 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-115) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 28 10:31 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 28 11:02 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 28 2:48 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Oct 28 10:51 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Thu 1:02 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Thu 1:32 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-115) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Thu 3:59 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-115) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Thu 6:06 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-120) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Fri 8:30 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-120) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Fri 9:31 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-120) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Fri 12:01 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-115) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Fri 12:55 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Fri 1:31 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-115) | 51.5 (-108) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Fri 2:02 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-115) | 51.5 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -250 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Fri 2:32 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Fri 4:02 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Fri 8:25 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-118) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Fri 9:03 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Fri 10:04 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Fri 11:04 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-125) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Sat 8:00 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-125) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +190 |
| Sat 8:31 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +190 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-118) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +190 |
| Sat 11:01 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +190 |
| Sat 11:12 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-115) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +190 |
| Sat 12:44 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Sat 2:25 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Sat 4:39 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-102) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Sat 4:49 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Sat 4:59 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
| Sat 5:09 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Sat 5:19 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Sat 6:51 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| Sat 7:01 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +200 |
| CLOSESat 7:11 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Ohio State Buckeyes -235 · USC Trojans +195 |
The read
The Coliseum is sold out, light drizzle is in the forecast, and Mission Viejo native Luke Fahey is expected to make a first career start in a homecoming nobody in Columbus planned for. I'm taking the points.
Even with Julian Sayin, Ohio State's road games were tight: a 24-23 loss at Texas, 31-14 at Iowa, 19-15 at Indiana. That's +20 combined over three games, an average just under this spread. Now the Buckeyes lay 6.5 with a freshman whose career line is 9-of-13 for 203 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT, almost all of it in mop-up time. Ryan Day still hasn't named a starter and calls it "definitely possible" both quarterbacks play. That's not a vote of confidence.
The offense was already slipping in Sayin's last game: 19 points at Indiana, 4 sacks for -44 yards, two picks, 6-of-15 on third down. Since then, Ja'Kobi Jackson has been ruled out, Brandon Inniss is questionable and Austin Siereveld may not last a full game.
Ohio State's defense is elite, with 94 points allowed in seven games, and that's exactly why I want points. In a low-scoring game, 6.5 is a lot. USC's 7-point night at Wisconsin was partly misfortune: one touchdown on three red-zone trips, a blocked 44-yard field goal and a missed 58. Jayden Maiava threw for 301 yards and 3 TD at Penn State two weeks earlier.
The spot also leans USC: 4-1 at home, a sellout, a bye next week, and Lincoln Riley on the hot seat. Ohio State hosts Oregon in seven days.
The risks are real. USC's line is banged up with Kilian O'Connor and Hayden Treter out, and Wisconsin held the Trojans to -18 rushing yards, five sacks included. Results against common opponents favor Ohio State, and the Buckeyes had 13 days to prepare. Jeremiah Smith, with 52 catches, 984 yards and 12 TD, can take over this game if Fahey simply delivers the ball.
But laying 6.5 on the road behind a first-time starter asks too much. This is a measured play, not a max bet.
Injuries noted
Ohio State Buckeyes: Brandon Inniss (questionable) — WR #0 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Leroy Roker III (out) — S #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Julian Sayin (out) — QB #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brock Boyd (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brenten "Inky" Jones (out) — S #21 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Ja'Kobi Jackson (out) — RB #24 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jay Timmons (doubtful) — CB #25 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Deshawn Stewart (out) — S #29 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Amari Valerio-Hudson (out) — WR #30 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Eli Lee (out) — LB #33 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jaxon Powell (out) — OL #60 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Maxence LeBlanc (out) — TE #88 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report
USC Trojans: Jahkeem Stewart (questionable) — DT #4 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Terrell Anderson (out) — WR #9 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Corey Simms (out) — WR #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Mark Bowman (questionable) — TE #19 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Shahn Alston (questionable) — RB #22 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kendarius Reddick (out) — S #23 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Taylor "Taybo" Johnson (out) — LB #50 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Roman Marchetti (out) — LB #57 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kilian O'Connor (out) — OL #67 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Hayden Treter (out) — OL #68 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jamaal Jarrett (questionable) — DT #99 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Luke Fahey is OSU's projected starter
PROJECTEDLuke Fahey is OSU's projected starting quarterback. Julian Sayin (throwing shoulder/arm, hurt Oct 17 at Indiana) is OUT on the official availability report. Ryan Day had not officially named a starter. Matt Zenitz (CBS Sports) reported true freshman Fahey is expected to start over sophomore Tavien St. Clair. Day said it's 'definitely possible' both play and that 'both guys had a good week of practice, and I think both will be ready to play.' Fahey relieved Sayin at Indiana and went 0-for-2. No source reports an injury to Fahey in that game or any limited practice this week; Ohio State had a bye week after Indiana. No verified passing sample is available yet.
Jayden Maiava is USC's projected starter
8.41 Y/AJayden Maiava is USC's projected starting quarterback. Eleven Warriors' Oct 30 preview lists Maiava as USC's projected starter. The California Post (Oct 30) describes him as the Trojans' quarterback after the 24-7 loss at Wisconsin: 31-of-50 passing, two interceptions, sacked five times. No team announcement confirming him as starter was found. The checked sources report no injury to Maiava from the Wisconsin game or limited practice this week, which is unverified, not a statement that he is healthy. 2026 line: 2303 passing yards, 66.8% completions, 8.41 yards per attempt, 19-5 TD-INT over 8 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
OSU: 13.4 points allowed per game to USC's 25
11.6 PPGOhio State allows about 13 a game and USC about 25, so the visiting defense is the stronger unit by a wide margin. Ohio State gave up just 9.3 last season, so this year is a slight step up but still elite over seven games. USC moved from 23 to 25 over eight games. The question for USC is scoring enough against a defense this good, more than slowing Ohio State down.
MISMATCH
OSU: 13.4 points allowed a game to USC's 25
13.4 VS 25Ohio State has allowed about 13 points a game over 7 games, USC 25 over 8. Ohio State gave up only 9.3 a game last season, so this year's defense is a bit softer, while USC is close to last season's 23. Both marks look like they will hold roughly where they are. USC's offense has to find points against one of the stingier defenses it will see, and its own defense will need stops to stay in it at home.
REPLACEMENT
Brenten "Inky" Jones (S) is out for OSU
OUTS #21 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Deshawn Stewart (S) is out for OSU
OUTS #29 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Amari Valerio-Hudson (WR) is out for OSU
OUTWR #30 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Eli Lee (LB) is out for OSU
OUTLB #33 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Jaxon Powell (OL) is out for OSU
OUTOL #60 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Maxence LeBlanc (TE) is out for OSU
OUTTE #88 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Terrell Anderson (WR) is out for USC
OUTWR #9 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Corey Simms (WR) is out for USC
OUTWR #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Kendarius Reddick (S) is out for USC
OUTS #23 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Taylor "Taybo" Johnson (LB) is out for USC
OUTLB #50 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Roman Marchetti (LB) is out for USC
OUTLB #57 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Kilian O'Connor (OL) is out for USC
OUTOL #67 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Hayden Treter (OL) is out for USC
OUTOL #68 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Leroy Roker III (S) is out for OSU
OUTS #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Julian Sayin (QB) is out for OSU
OUTQB #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Brock Boyd (WR) is out for OSU
OUTWR #11 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Ja'Kobi Jackson (RB) is out for OSU
OUTRB #24 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
SITUATIONAL
OSU has 7 more days of rest
14d vs 7dOhio State travels to USC with 14 days of rest, while USC plays on a standard 7. Two weeks is enough to absorb a cross-country trip and still get a full week of focused preparation. USC keeps home field, but the road team owns the calendar here, which takes some of the usual sting out of a long flight.
TEAM RECORD
Big Ten game: OSU 4-0, USC 3-2 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the Big Ten. OSU is 4-0 against it, USC is 3-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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