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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:45 PM

Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

O/U 47.5 · SPREAD Missouri Tigers -9.5 · Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR

GARY'S PICK
Arkansas +9.5
NCAAFvs Missouri· +100

Arkansas
+9.5

+100 · LOST · MIZ 34 · ARK 10

Missouri

The pick & result

Published pick
Arkansas Razorbacks +9.5 +100
Published odds
+100
Result
Lost
Final score
34-10

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 53 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 1:31 PM
Close
Sat 7:41 PM
Move
SPREADMissouri Tigers -10 (-105)Missouri Tigers -10.5 (-108)+½
TOTAL47.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)+1
MONEYLINEMissouri Tigers -350Missouri Tigers -375−25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 1:31 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-105)47.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -350 · Arkansas Razorbacks +275
Oct 25 3:31 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)47.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -350 · Arkansas Razorbacks +275
Oct 25 4:31 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)48.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Oct 25 5:31 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Oct 25 6:31 PMMissouri Tigers -9.5 (-112)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -350 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Oct 25 8:31 PMMissouri Tigers -9.5 (-112)49.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -350 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Oct 25 9:31 PMMissouri Tigers -9.5 (-112)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -350 · Arkansas Razorbacks +280
Oct 26 6:00 AMMissouri Tigers -9.5 (-112)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Oct 26 9:31 AMMissouri Tigers -9.5 (-112)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Oct 26 10:31 AMMissouri Tigers -9.5 (-112)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Oct 26 11:32 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Oct 27 8:05 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Oct 28 8:31 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Oct 28 2:18 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Oct 29 6:00 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Thu 1:32 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Thu 3:33 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Thu 5:36 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Thu 6:36 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)49.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Thu 7:06 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Thu 7:36 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-108)48.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Fri 12:37 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Fri 11:31 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Fri 12:01 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +290
Fri 12:31 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Fri 2:02 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-112)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Fri 3:02 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -400 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310
Fri 4:02 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310
Fri 6:11 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310
Sat 9:21 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)47.5 (-125)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310
Sat 9:31 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-102)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310
Sat 9:51 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-102)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 10:01 AMMissouri Tigers -10 (-110)48.5 (-102)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310
Sat 2:25 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-110)48.5 (-102)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 2:35 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-112)48.5 (-102)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 2:46 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-110)48.5 (-102)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 3:27 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-108)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 3:47 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-112)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 3:57 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-120)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 4:19 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 4:39 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-120)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 4:49 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 4:59 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-120)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 5:09 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 5:19 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-120)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 5:29 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 5:39 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-120)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 5:59 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 6:20 PMMissouri Tigers -10 (-120)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 6:31 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-108)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +300
Sat 6:41 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-108)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -400 · Arkansas Razorbacks +320
Sat 7:21 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-108)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -400 · Arkansas Razorbacks +320
Sat 7:31 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -400 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310
CLOSESat 7:41 PMMissouri Tigers -10.5 (-108)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -375 · Arkansas Razorbacks +310

The read

It's Halloween night in Fayetteville, with rain in the forecast at kickoff and the Battle Line Rivalry moved out of its usual late-season slot. Ryan Silverfield gets his first shot at ending Missouri's four-game streak in the series, and the books want the Tigers to win by double digits on the road. I'll take the points.

Missouri has been a different team away from Columbia. Against FBS teams at home, the Tigers won by 10, 28 and 21 and allowed 17, 17 and 6. On the road, they won by 17 at Kansas, then lost by 7 at Mississippi State and by 28 at Ole Miss, giving up 514 and 498 yards in those two SEC road games. Jamal Roberts tells the same story: 222 and 211 yards at home, 95 and 39 on the road.

Missouri also leaves points on the field. The Tigers have 11 touchdowns on 23 red-zone trips against FBS teams and went 0-for-3 at Ole Miss. Blake Craig is 11-of-17 on field goals with three blocked, and several of his makes came from 50-plus. Those kicks get harder in steady rain, and a favorite settling for field goals is how a 9.5-point dog cashes.

Arkansas is playing cleaner football. The Hogs forced five takeaways over their last two games, and KJ Jackson didn't turn it over at Vanderbilt. Kash Courtney earned SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week at center. Arkansas ran it 41 and 32 times and held the ball over 32 minutes in each of its last two games, which shortens a wet game. Missouri's front has questions too: Ole Miss ran for 257 on them, Darris Smith is dealing with a high ankle sprain, and there's no word on Robert Woodyard Jr.

There's real risk here. Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6, while Arkansas lost 34-7 at A&M. The Hogs were blown out by Utah, Georgia and A&M, and opponents have scored touchdowns on 21 of 24 red-zone trips against them. If the rain lets up, Austin Simmons, Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode can pick this secondary apart. Watch Chris Marshall, too. He's questionable, and if he sits, I cool on this.

Missouri probably wins. But on the road, in the rain, against a rivalry crowd, I'll take the 9.5.

Injuries noted

Missouri Tigers: Malae Fonoti (out) — RB #21 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Josh Atkins (out) — OL #54 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Gavin Hoffman (out) — TE #88 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Arkansas Razorbacks: Braydon Lee (out) — DB #3 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Chris Marshall (questionable) — WR #6 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Maddox Lassiter (out) — TE #47 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Caden Kitler (out) — OL #52 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Gavin Garretson (out) — TE #89 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Austin Simmons is MIZ's projected starter

    8.44 Y/A

    Austin Simmons is MIZ's projected starting quarterback. Whole Hog Sports (Oct 30, 2026) names Simmons as Missouri's starter. That is an Arkansas outlet, not the team. Its Oct 26 depth-chart story gives a projected, unofficial Missouri chart with Simmons first and Matt Zollers second. SI/Yahoo (Oct 27, 2026) calls him 'starting QB Austin Simmons' and quotes him from Tuesday's press conference, but doesn't attribute the start to the team. Missouri's official preview (Oct 30, 2026) features Simmons (14 TD, 2 INT) but doesn't say he starts. I found no Missouri depth chart or coach statement for this week. Missouri's last game was Oct. 17 at Ole Miss, followed by a bye. Drinkwitz's Oct 27 injury update doesn't list Simmons, and no opened source reports an injury or limited practice for him. That means unverified, not confirmed healthy. 2026 line: 1756 passing yards, 63.0% completions, 8.44 yards per attempt, 14-2 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • KJ Jackson is ARK's confirmed starter

    6.77 Y/A

    KJ Jackson is ARK's confirmed starting quarterback. Arkansas released its official Week 9 depth chart Monday, Oct 26, 2026, with KJ Jackson at QB1 and AJ Hill at QB2. It was unchanged from the chart before the Week 7 win at Vanderbilt, and Arkansas had a bye the week after that game. Whole Hog Sports (Oct 30) names Jackson as Arkansas's starter, and the Fulton Sun (Oct 30) says he is in his first season as the starter. Jackson met the media Wednesday, Oct 28. No opened source reports an injury in the Vanderbilt game or limited practice this week. That means unverified, not confirmed healthy. 2026 line: 1442 passing yards, 61.0% completions, 6.77 yards per attempt, 6-4 TD-INT over 7 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • MIZ: 31.1 points per game to ARK's 21

    10.1 PPG

    Missouri is scoring at nearly the same clip as last season's 30.2, so its offense looks steady. Arkansas is the story: 21 per game after 32.9 last season, a big drop over seven games. That kind of fall can partly bounce back, but seven games is enough that it is not just noise. Missouri on the road should have the more reliable offense, and Arkansas has to prove it can score more before you price it like last year's team.

MISMATCH

  • MIZ: 156.6 rush yards a game to ARK's 111.4

    156.6 VS 111.4

    The widest gap between these two is rush yards a game: MIZ ran for 156.6 rushing yards a game over 7 games; ARK ran for 111.4 rushing yards a game over 7 games this season. Last season MIZ was at 228.3 over 13 games and ARK at 191.9 over 12 games.

REPLACEMENT

  • Malae Fonoti (RB) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    RB #21 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Josh Atkins (OL) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    OL #54 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Gavin Hoffman (TE) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    TE #88 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Braydon Lee (DB) is out for ARK

    OUT

    DB #3 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Maddox Lassiter (TE) is out for ARK

    OUT

    TE #47 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Caden Kitler (OL) is out for ARK

    OUT

    OL #52 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Gavin Garretson (TE) is out for ARK

    OUT

    TE #89 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: MIZ 2-2, ARK 1-3 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. MIZ is 2-2 against it, ARK is 1-3. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, fanatics, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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