California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack

Injuries noted

California Golden Bears: Dorian Thomas (out) — TE #0 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Carter Vargas (out) — RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jordan King (out) — WR #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ian Strong (questionable) — WR #9 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; AJ Tuitele (questionable) — ILB #9 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Cooper Perry (questionable) — WR #10 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Mark Hamper (questionable) — WR #15 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Ashten Emory (questionable) — RB #20 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Adam Mohammed (questionable) — RB #24 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; JD McKinley (questionable) — ILB #33 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Frederick Williams III (questionable) — OL #54 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Tyson Ruffins (questionable) — OL #56 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Jimothy Lewis Jr. (questionable) — OL #77 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Nate Burrell (out) — DL #98 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

NC State Wolfpack: Jayden "Duke" Scott (out) — RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Joshisa "Jojo" Trader (questionable) — WR #2 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Tristan Teasdell (out) — S #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Vander Ploog (out) — TE #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jamel Johnson (questionable) — CB #6 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Isaiah Crowell (out) — NCK #8 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; AJ Richardson (out) — ILB #15 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Daniel Cruz (out) — OL #50 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Yousef Mugharbil (out) — OL #71 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Spike Sowells Jr. (out) — OL #72 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ian Flynt (out) — TE #87 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Nick Konieczynski (out) — K #91 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; AJ Prim (out) — DL #99 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is CAL's projected starter

  7.10 Y/A

  Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is CAL's projected starting quarterback. The SI/Yahoo preview (Oct 30) says he 'is scheduled to make his second straight start,' but quotes no one from Cal. The SF Chronicle (Oct 30) and Daily Cal (Oct 29) call him the starter after he got the job back for the SMU game, where he went 27 of 37 for 265 yards and 1 TD in a 59-20 loss. No Cal coach statement or depth chart was retrieved. Background: he had a concussion on Oct 3 against UNLV, missed the Virginia Tech game, and was benched to start the Wake Forest game. He is not on this week's Cal injury list. The checked sources report no new injury against SMU or any limited practice this week. 2026 line: 1555 passing yards, 68.0% completions, 7.10 yards per attempt, 10-5 TD-INT over 7 games.

• CJ Bailey is NCSU's projected starter

  7.99 Y/A

  CJ Bailey is NCSU's projected starting quarterback. Current-week reporting treats Bailey as NC State's quarterback. SI/Yahoo (Oct 30) quotes him on Monday of game week saying 'this is definitely the week for me and the guys to step up' under interim coach Todd Goebbel. The SI Cal preview (Oct 30) describes Bailey as the Wolfpack quarterback and Will Wilson as the backup used in short yardage and at the goal line. No team statement or depth chart naming him the starter was retrieved. He is not on the NC State injury list in the Oct 30 preview, and the checked sources report no injury in the last game (a 31-28 loss at Stanford) or any limited practice this week. 2026 line: 1750 passing yards, 65.3% completions, 7.99 yards per attempt, 11-4 TD-INT over 7 games.

TRENCHES

• NCSU: 139.3 rushing yards allowed per game to CAL's 190.5

  51.2 YPG

  NC State's run defense is middling at 139.3 a game over 7 games, and Cal's is worse at 190.5 over 8. NC State looks good mostly by comparison. Cal giving up that many rushing yards across 8 games is a pattern, which makes NC State's ground game the likely way it moves the ball at home and keeps drives long.

PACE & SCRIPT

• NCSU: 32.3 points per game to CAL's 23.4

  8.9 PPG

  CAL is at 23.4 points per game over 8 games; NCSU is at 32.3 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season CAL was at 25.3 over 13 games and NCSU at 30.2 over 13 games.

MISMATCH

• NCSU: 166.6 rush yards a game to CAL's 84

  166.6 VS 84

  NC State is running for 166.6 yards a game, up from 146.5 last season, while Cal is at 84 over eight games, close to its 81.7 a year ago. Cal's weak ground game is a pattern across two seasons. NC State can lean on the run at home while Cal has to throw to move the ball. That gap has held long enough to trust as part of how this game plays out.

REPLACEMENT

• Dorian Thomas (TE) is out for CAL

  OUT

  TE #0 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Carter Vargas (RB) is out for CAL

  OUT

  RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Jordan King (WR) is out for CAL

  OUT

  WR #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Nate Burrell (DL) is out for CAL

  OUT

  DL #98 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Jayden "Duke" Scott (RB) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Tristan Teasdell (S) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  S #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Vander Ploog (TE) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  TE #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Isaiah Crowell (CB) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  NCK #8 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• AJ Richardson (LB) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  ILB #15 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Daniel Cruz (OL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  OL #50 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Yousef Mugharbil (OL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  OL #71 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Spike Sowells Jr. (OL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  OL #72 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Ian Flynt (TE) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  TE #87 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• Nick Konieczynski (PK) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  K #91 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

• AJ Prim (DL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  DL #99 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

SITUATIONAL

• NCSU: 51.5% third-down conversion rate to CAL's 36.7%

  14.8 PP

  NC State converts more than half its third downs, Cal just over a third. NC State jumped from 41.2% last season over seven games, which may come back down some, while Cal slipped from 40.4%. The edge on sustaining drives favors NC State at home, though NC State's rate is the one more likely to move.

• NCSU: 48.6 penalty yards per game to CAL's 84.6

  36.1 YDS

  Cal is giving away 84.6 penalty yards a game over eight games, up from 64.6 last season, while NC State is cleaner at 48.6, a bit under last year's 53.8. That is free field position for NC State at home. Penalty rates are streaky, but Cal has been sloppy for a full eight games, so the hidden yardage edge is a real factor in a close number.

TEAM RECORD

• NCSU is 3-1 at home; CAL is 1-2 on the road

  3-1

  NC State has won three of four at home, and Cal has won one of three away from home. With four and three games in the books, neither split is settled. Both lean toward NC State, so the home field looks like a real plus here, but it should be one input among several rather than the whole case.

• ACC game: CAL 2-3, NCSU 1-3 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the ACC. CAL is 2-3 against it, NCSU is 1-3. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.