Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
O/U 236.5 · SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 · Smoothie King Center
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Sacramento Kings +5.5 -102
- Published odds
- -102
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 120-132
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Two winless teams meet at Smoothie King Center, and New Orleans is on the second night of a back-to-back after losing at home to Denver on Wednesday. One of them leaves 1-4. I'm taking the 5.5 points with Sacramento.
The Pelicans' close losses look better than they are. Leave out their games against New Orleans, and Denver, Utah and Indiana are a combined 1-9. The teams that beat Sacramento are 7-5 against everyone else. That gap explains most of the difference between the Kings' 17.75-point average losing margin and the Pelicans' 5.75. New Orleans hasn't shown it can beat anybody, and this line asks it to win by six.
They also can't close. The Pelicans have lost the fourth quarter in all four games, 93-133 combined. They led after three quarters in three of them, by 6, 4 and 19. The 19-point lead came at Denver on the second night of their last back-to-back. Their offense isn't built for margin either: 29% from three and 16.75 turnovers a game.
Sacramento has the edge at center. With Yves Missi out, those minutes go to DeAndre Jordan, Derik Queen and Karlo Matkovic. Domantas Sabonis is shooting 31-43 and averaging 16.5 rebounds. Zach LaVine has scored at least 22 in every game on 52% shooting.
The risks are real. The Kings give up 125.5 points a game, and both of their road games ended in 25-plus-point blowouts. They commit 23.5 fouls a game, Emanuel Sharp has picked up five fouls in three of four games, Keegan Murray is out, and Zion Williamson is 32-53 from the field. If this turns into a free-throw parade for New Orleans, that's the cover. Darius Acuff Jr. is 7-34 from three. And this back-to-back is home-and-home, and nobody on New Orleans played more than 32 minutes Wednesday.
Still, I'm not laying 5.5 with a team that hasn't been able to hold a lead. At -102, Kings +5.5 is the play.
Injuries noted
Sacramento Kings: Dylan Cardwell (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain; Keegan Murray (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle capsulitis; Maxime Raynaud (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Patella subluxation; Ben Simmons (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise; Jordan Poole (Doubtful) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
NOP won last season's series 2-1
2-1New Orleans won last season's series 2-1, by 10.7 points a game across 3 meetings. Tonight is the first meeting this season. Three games is a small sample, and both rosters look different now, with Sacramento missing Keegan Murray, Ben Simmons and two centers. The Kings' injuries tonight tell you more than last season's results.
REPLACEMENT
Dylan Cardwell is OUT for SAC
OUTDylan Cardwell is out with a left calf strain and was set to be re-evaluated in one week. Sacramento is also without Maxime Raynaud, so they are short on bigs tonight. That could matter on the glass against Zion Williamson and New Orleans. Look at rebounding props on both sides with the Kings this thin inside.
Ben Simmons is OUT for SAC
OUTBen Simmons is out after surgery to repair his right Achilles tendon, which is a long-term absence. He is one of several Kings sidelined, along with Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell. This one is well known and should already be priced into Sacramento's lines.
Yves Missi is OUT for NOP
OUTYves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise and is expected to miss an extended stretch. That takes a big body out of New Orleans' rotation. Sacramento is even thinner inside, missing two centers of its own, so the frontcourt gap partly cancels out. Rebound props for whoever takes Missi's minutes are the place to look.
Sean Pedulla is OUT for SAC
OUTSean Pedulla is a two-way player on G League duty, so his absence has no real effect on tonight's game.
Keegan Murray is OUT for SAC
OUTKeegan Murray is out with left ankle capsulitis and was set to be re-evaluated in a 10-to-14 window. He is one of several Sacramento absences, and losing a regular starter puts more scoring weight on the players who are available.
Maxime Raynaud is OUT for SAC
OUTMaxime Raynaud is out with a right patella subluxation, a kneecap injury, though recent reports said he was progressing. With Dylan Cardwell also out, Sacramento is missing two centers. That leaves the Kings small and thin inside, which helps New Orleans attack the paint. Expect the Kings' remaining bigs to see heavier minutes.
Jordan Poole is Day-To-Day for NOP
Day-To-DayJordan Poole's status is unsettled (Day-To-Day). Poole (ankle) won't return to Wednesday's game against the Nuggets. He finished with two points (1-3 FG, 0-1 3Pt), one rebound and one…
SITUATIONAL
NOP on a back-to-back, SAC rested
B2B vs 2dNew Orleans played last night and Sacramento did not, so the Kings have 2 days of rest against a team on a back-to-back. Tired legs tend to show late in games and on jump shots. Sacramento is short-handed and losing big, so rest helps them less than it would a full roster. It matters most for second-half and late-game markets.
STREAK
NOP has lost 4 straight
L4New Orleans has dropped all 4 games it has played, and the average margin is 5.8 points, so these have mostly been close losses rather than blowouts. A 4-game sample this early says more about a slow start than about who this team is. Losing by around 5.8 is the kind of gap that can flip on a few late possessions, so a winless record and a team that keeps games tight can both be true. That matters when you look at a spread.
SAC has lost 4 straight
L4Sacramento is 0-4 and losing by 17.8 a game, which means the Kings have been getting run off the floor. Four games is a small sample, but margins that wide point to real problems. A losing streak can be bad luck in close games. This one has nothing close about it. Until the Kings keep a game competitive, the size of their losses matters more for a spread than the count of them.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 3:08 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, fanatics, betway.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKDOMANTAS SABONISREBOUNDS OVER 14.5
Sabonis has gone 14, 15, 19 and 18 on the glass to open the year, and the setup tonight leans his way. Sacramento's frontcourt is thin. Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud are all out, so Sabonis is locked into 35 to 39 minutes with nobody behind him taking boards.
New Orleans is playing the second night of a back-to-back without Yves Missi, which leaves a 38-year-old DeAndre Jordan starting on no rest and a young Derik Queen carrying the rest of the minutes. The Pelicans also miss a lot of shots: 34 of 82 last night with a 7 of 30 night from deep, and tired legs on a back-to-back usually mean more front-rim misses. Long misses and a short opposing frontcourt are exactly where Sabonis lives.
Getting plus money on a number he has been sitting at or above every night is the price I want.
- GARY'S PICKDERIK QUEENREBOUNDS OVER 7.5
With Missi still out, the center minutes in New Orleans run through Queen, and he has been the most productive big they have. He pulled 12 boards last night and 8 the game before in 25 minutes each time.
Jordan started both Denver games but only logged 13 minutes last night, and asking him for more on the second night of a back-to-back is a stretch, so Queen's minutes should hold or climb. Sacramento gives up second chances.
Memphis grabbed 19 offensive rebounds against them, Portland 13, and the Kings' own shooting has been cold from three every night this season, which sends plenty of long rebounds back into the lane. Sabonis will get his, but there are enough misses on both ends for Queen to clear this, and at plus money I like the over.
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