NBA · Sat, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets

O/U 239.5 · SPREAD Denver Nuggets -11.5 · Ball Arena

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Nuggets· -115

Denver opens its home building tonight against a Pelicans team that played in Salt Lake City last night and now plays its third game in four nights, at altitude. The Nuggets lay 11.5, and that schedule was baked into the number the day it opened. Start by tossing the noise. Denver's 84-96 loss at Oklahoma City came with 22 turnovers, Jokic going 5-19 and Murray 2-11. That was one night against a 2-0 Thunder team, and it says little about who Denver is. The Pelicans' 0-2 start by four combined points, after leading into the fourth both times, is close-game coin-flipping, not character. What matters at this number cuts both ways. Jokic gets a thinner Pelicans frontcourt. Yves Missi is out, so the middle belongs to Derik Queen, who logged 29 minutes last night, and Karlo Matkovic. Indiana won the paint 64-48 even with Missi on the floor, and New Orleans fouled 29 times in Utah. That's Denver's road to a blowout. But Denver is short-handed. Cam Johnson, Julian Strawther and Spencer Jones are out, and Alpha Diallo is questionable. DeRozan slides into the starting five, which costs spacing around Jokic. Behind them sit Trevon Brazile, Marvin Bagley III and Tyus Jones. To cover 11.5, Denver has to build a margin with Jokic and keep it when he sits. Those minutes come against the Pelicans' strength: Saddiq Bey, Jordan Poole, Bennedict Mathurin and Herbert Jones, a bench that put up 43 on Indiana. That depth also spreads the back-to-back load, since nobody played more than 33 minutes last night. An offense that has scored 120 and 119 and gets to the line plenty can keep pace through Denver's thin stretches. The number charges New Orleans for the schedule. It doesn't fully charge Denver for how few bodies it has. Pelicans +11.5 is a lean, not a hammer. The way it loses is tired legs in the second half and Jokic carving up the paint.

The pick & result

Published pick: New Orleans Pelicans +11.5 -115
Published odds: -115
Result: Won
Final score: 135-141

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Start by tossing the noise. Denver's 84-96 loss at Oklahoma City came with 22 turnovers, Jokic going 5-19 and Murray 2-11. That was one night against a 2-0 Thunder team, and it says little about who Denver is. The Pelicans' 0-2 start by four combined points, after leading into the fourth both times, is close-game coin-flipping, not character.

What matters at this number cuts both ways. Jokic gets a thinner Pelicans frontcourt. Yves Missi is out, so the middle belongs to Derik Queen, who logged 29 minutes last night, and Karlo Matkovic. Indiana won the paint 64-48 even with Missi on the floor, and New Orleans fouled 29 times in Utah. That's Denver's road to a blowout.

But Denver is short-handed. Cam Johnson, Julian Strawther and Spencer Jones are out, and Alpha Diallo is questionable. DeRozan slides into the starting five, which costs spacing around Jokic. Behind them sit Trevon Brazile, Marvin Bagley III and Tyus Jones. To cover 11.5, Denver has to build a margin with Jokic and keep it when he sits. Those minutes come against the Pelicans' strength: Saddiq Bey, Jordan Poole, Bennedict Mathurin and Herbert Jones, a bench that put up 43 on Indiana. That depth also spreads the back-to-back load, since nobody played more than 33 minutes last night. An offense that has scored 120 and 119 and gets to the line plenty can keep pace through Denver's thin stretches.

The number charges New Orleans for the schedule. It doesn't fully charge Denver for how few bodies it has. Pelicans +11.5 is a lean, not a hammer. The way it loses is tired legs in the second half and Jokic carving up the paint.

Injuries noted

New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise

Denver Nuggets: Alpha Diallo (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Wrist Sprain; Cameron Johnson (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain; Spencer Jones (Out) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Hamstring Injury Management; Julian Strawther (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Sprain

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, rebet, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, betway.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
NIKOLA JOKICREBOUNDS OVER 12.5
NBADenver Nuggets· -125
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 15
Yves Missi is out, and he was the Pelicans big built to fight Jokic for the glass. He grabbed 14 or 15 rebounds in the opener before a knee contusion knocked him out in Utah. That leaves Derik Queen, who played 29 minutes last night, with Karlo Matkovic behind him. Neither one moves Jokic off his spot. The misses will be there. New Orleans shot 38 for 89 against Indiana and went 8 for 26 from three last night. Tonight is the second night of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and it's at altitude. Tired legs show up on jump shots first, and long rebounds off flat threes land in Jokic's area. Denver adds to the pile too: the Nuggets shot 31 for 82 at Oklahoma City. The seven rebounds in Oklahoma City came against Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, the best rebounding frontcourt he'll see all month. Holmgren pulled down 17 that night. Tonight that size is gone, and a rookie-level frontcourt playing on no rest is a much easier group to box out. Thirteen is a normal night for him at full minutes. What beats it is a game that gets away from New Orleans early and sends Jokic to the bench for the fourth, or teammates vacuuming up his share the way Trevon Brazile (12) and Jamal Murray (10) did in Oklahoma City. I have the Pelicans keeping this inside the number, so I expect him to play his full minutes.
Nikola Jokic
Rebounds over 12.5
-125 · CASHED · ACTUAL 15
Denver Nuggets
Yves Missi is out, and he was the Pelicans big built to fight Jokic for the glass. He grabbed 14 or 15 rebounds in the opener before a knee contusion knocked him out in Utah. That leaves Derik Queen, who played 29 minutes last night, with Karlo Matkovic behind him. Neither one moves Jokic off his spot.
The misses will be there. New Orleans shot 38 for 89 against Indiana and went 8 for 26 from three last night. Tonight is the second night of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and it's at altitude. Tired legs show up on jump shots first, and long rebounds off flat threes land in Jokic's area. Denver adds to the pile too: the Nuggets shot 31 for 82 at Oklahoma City.
The seven rebounds in Oklahoma City came against Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, the best rebounding frontcourt he'll see all month. Holmgren pulled down 17 that night. Tonight that size is gone, and a rookie-level frontcourt playing on no rest is a much easier group to box out. Thirteen is a normal night for him at full minutes.
What beats it is a game that gets away from New Orleans early and sends Jokic to the bench for the fourth, or teammates vacuuming up his share the way Trevon Brazile (12) and Jamal Murray (10) did in Oklahoma City. I have the Pelicans keeping this inside the number, so I expect him to play his full minutes.
GARY'S PICK
DEMAR DEROZANPOINTS OVER 15.5
NBADenver Nuggets· +102
LOST · ACTUAL 12
Cam Johnson's ankle puts DeMar DeRozan in Denver's starting five for the home opener, and that changes the math on this number. He scored 13 on 5 for 9 in 28 minutes off the bench at Oklahoma City, on a night the Nuggets turned it over 22 times and their two stars went a combined 7 for 30. Starting adds minutes. With Johnson and Strawther out and Diallo questionable, Denver has few other places for shots to go, especially when Jokic sits. New Orleans fouls. The Pelicans were whistled 29 times in Utah and 24 times against Indiana, and Jeremiah Fears picked up three fouls in about four minutes in the opener. DeRozan lives on the elbow pull up and the shot fake, and a team playing its third game in four nights, at altitude, is going to reach late. Free throws give him a floor. The Pelicans also can't send extra help his way. Missi is out, Queen has his hands full with Jokic, and the forwards have to account for Aaron Gordon, who just scored 20. That leaves DeRozan working one on one against Fears or Trey Murphy, which is the matchup he wants. A game that stays competitive, which is how I see it, keeps him on the floor late. What beats it is Herbert Jones. He comes off the New Orleans bench, and if he draws DeRozan for long stretches, the midrange gets tougher. A Jamal Murray bounce back that eats the shots, or Diallo returning and splitting the wing minutes, would also trim his volume.
DeMar DeRozan
Points over 15.5
+102 · LOST · ACTUAL 12
Denver Nuggets
Cam Johnson's ankle puts DeMar DeRozan in Denver's starting five for the home opener, and that changes the math on this number. He scored 13 on 5 for 9 in 28 minutes off the bench at Oklahoma City, on a night the Nuggets turned it over 22 times and their two stars went a combined 7 for 30. Starting adds minutes. With Johnson and Strawther out and Diallo questionable, Denver has few other places for shots to go, especially when Jokic sits.
New Orleans fouls. The Pelicans were whistled 29 times in Utah and 24 times against Indiana, and Jeremiah Fears picked up three fouls in about four minutes in the opener. DeRozan lives on the elbow pull up and the shot fake, and a team playing its third game in four nights, at altitude, is going to reach late. Free throws give him a floor.
The Pelicans also can't send extra help his way. Missi is out, Queen has his hands full with Jokic, and the forwards have to account for Aaron Gordon, who just scored 20. That leaves DeRozan working one on one against Fears or Trey Murphy, which is the matchup he wants. A game that stays competitive, which is how I see it, keeps him on the floor late.
What beats it is Herbert Jones. He comes off the New Orleans bench, and if he draws DeRozan for long stretches, the midrange gets tougher. A Jamal Murray bounce back that eats the shots, or Diallo returning and splitting the wing minutes, would also trim his volume.

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