NBA · Fri, Oct 23 · 9:30 PM

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

O/U 239.5 · SPREAD Utah Jazz -1.5 · Delta Center

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Jazz· -112

Utah opens the Delta Center season against a New Orleans team making its first road trip. Both clubs are 0-1, both played Wednesday and both had a day off. The Jazz are laying a point and a half at home, which says the market sees two roughly even teams. Start with what to ignore. Utah's 20-point loss in Memphis came with Ty Jerome scoring 45 on 17-25. That was one shooter's night, not who Utah is on defense. New Orleans led Indiana 66-56 at half and lost 123-120 on missed late shots, against a Pacers team missing Nesmith and McConnell. Close finishes are coin flips. Markkanen's 1-7 from three isn't owed makes, George's 4-6 isn't a new baseline, and Nurkic being out was in this number from the start. What carries over is rebounding. Memphis grabbed 15 offensive rebounds to Utah's 5, and Will Hardy said the Grizzlies beat them up on the glass. Hayes starts at center with Nurkic out and had 5 rebounds in 26 minutes. New Orleans grabbed 14 offensive boards against Indiana with Zubac in the middle. Missi had 14 rebounds, and Queen had 10 in 18 minutes. Then there's Zion against Jaren Jackson Jr. New Orleans shot 37 free throws in the opener, and Zion went 6-6. Jackson is Utah's best interior defender, and Jackson fouled out in 28 minutes. If Zion draws that contact again, Utah is down to Hayes, Bradley and Filipowski in the middle. Utah also turned it over 18 times, five of them by Jackson. The risk is real. Indiana scored 64 in the paint and won fast-break points 27-10 against this Pelicans defense. Utah can attack that with Hayes rolling to the rim and Jackson working inside. At a number this small, I'm taking the team I think wins; the half point isn't the reason. The edges that look like they'll repeat point to New Orleans. Each team has played one game, so this is a lean, not a hammer.

The pick & result

Published pick: New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -112
Published odds: -112
Result: Won
Final score: 119-120

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Start with what to ignore. Utah's 20-point loss in Memphis came with Ty Jerome scoring 45 on 17-25. That was one shooter's night, not who Utah is on defense. New Orleans led Indiana 66-56 at half and lost 123-120 on missed late shots, against a Pacers team missing Nesmith and McConnell. Close finishes are coin flips. Markkanen's 1-7 from three isn't owed makes, George's 4-6 isn't a new baseline, and Nurkic being out was in this number from the start.

What carries over is rebounding. Memphis grabbed 15 offensive rebounds to Utah's 5, and Will Hardy said the Grizzlies beat them up on the glass. Hayes starts at center with Nurkic out and had 5 rebounds in 26 minutes. New Orleans grabbed 14 offensive boards against Indiana with Zubac in the middle. Missi had 14 rebounds, and Queen had 10 in 18 minutes.

Then there's Zion against Jaren Jackson Jr. New Orleans shot 37 free throws in the opener, and Zion went 6-6. Jackson is Utah's best interior defender, and Jackson fouled out in 28 minutes. If Zion draws that contact again, Utah is down to Hayes, Bradley and Filipowski in the middle. Utah also turned it over 18 times, five of them by Jackson.

The risk is real. Indiana scored 64 in the paint and won fast-break points 27-10 against this Pelicans defense. Utah can attack that with Hayes rolling to the rim and Jackson working inside.

At a number this small, I'm taking the team I think wins; the half point isn't the reason. The edges that look like they'll repeat point to New Orleans. Each team has played one game, so this is a lean, not a hammer.

Injuries noted

Utah Jazz: Jusuf Nurkic (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right 2nd Plantar Plate Tear

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

NOP won last season's series 3-0
3-0
New Orleans won all 3 meetings last season by 13.3 points a game, a lopsided series. Three games is a small sample from a different season. Tonight's line already reflects what both teams look like now, so the sweep is background more than a reason on its own.

SITUATIONAL

Both sides on 2 days rest
2d both
Both teams come in on 2 days rest, so the schedule gives neither side an edge.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 23, 2026 at 2:40 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, fanatics, draftkings, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, caesars, betmgm, betway.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
YVES MISSIREBOUNDS OVER 8.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· +110
LOST · ACTUAL 1
The glass is where this game tilts, and Missi is the one New Orleans player who lives on it. Against Indiana he grabbed 14 rebounds in 30 minutes while matched up with Zubac, a real rebounding center. He also shot 5-6, blocked three shots and handed out five assists, so the coaching staff has every reason to keep him on the floor for a similar workload. Utah just gave up 15 offensive rebounds to Memphis and grabbed only 5 of its own. Will Hardy said the Grizzlies beat them up on the glass. Nurkic is out, and Hayes starts in the middle after pulling down 5 rebounds in 26 minutes. Jackson fouled out in 28 minutes and spends a lot of his night on the perimeter, which leaves the defensive glass open behind him. Utah also shot 35-75 in Memphis. A team that misses that often hands the opposing center a lot of chances, and Missi is the one who will be standing there. At plus money on a number below what he did in the opener, I'll take it. What beats it: Derik Queen. He had 10 rebounds in 18 minutes, and if Mosley leans on him the boards get split. Tony Bradley is cleared tonight, and a real backup center gives Utah more bodies to box out. If Missi picks up early fouls, or Utah shoots well and leaves fewer misses, he can finish with seven.
Yves Missi
Rebounds over 8.5
+110 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
New Orleans Pelicans
The glass is where this game tilts, and Missi is the one New Orleans player who lives on it. Against Indiana he grabbed 14 rebounds in 30 minutes while matched up with Zubac, a real rebounding center. He also shot 5-6, blocked three shots and handed out five assists, so the coaching staff has every reason to keep him on the floor for a similar workload.
Utah just gave up 15 offensive rebounds to Memphis and grabbed only 5 of its own. Will Hardy said the Grizzlies beat them up on the glass. Nurkic is out, and Hayes starts in the middle after pulling down 5 rebounds in 26 minutes. Jackson fouled out in 28 minutes and spends a lot of his night on the perimeter, which leaves the defensive glass open behind him. Utah also shot 35-75 in Memphis. A team that misses that often hands the opposing center a lot of chances, and Missi is the one who will be standing there.
At plus money on a number below what he did in the opener, I'll take it.
What beats it: Derik Queen. He had 10 rebounds in 18 minutes, and if Mosley leans on him the boards get split. Tony Bradley is cleared tonight, and a real backup center gives Utah more bodies to box out. If Missi picks up early fouls, or Utah shoots well and leaves fewer misses, he can finish with seven.
GARY'S PICK
ZION WILLIAMSONPOINTS OVER 19.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· -102
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 23
Zion scored 22 in 32 minutes against Indiana, and the way he got there carries into this game. He went 6-6 at the line on a night New Orleans shot 37 free throws. He also took 16 shots and was on the floor late, with the ball in his hands on the final possessions. The offense runs through him and Murray. Utah's answer is Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jackson fouled out in 28 minutes on Wednesday. If Zion gets him in early trouble, the Jazz are down to Hayes, Bradley and Filipowski. Hayes gives up a lot of size to Zion, Bradley is coming back from missing the opener, and Filipowski isn't an option for long minutes. A Utah team that turned it over 18 times in Memphis also gives Zion easy points in transition, which is where he's hardest to stop. The line asks for less than he scored in the opener, at close to even money. I'll take the over. What beats it: Jackson stays out of foul trouble and walls off the paint, which is what he's capable of. Murray took 18 shots and scored 23 in the opener, and if he stays hot again, Zion's touches shrink. A blowout either way could also take a few minutes off his night.
Zion Williamson
Points over 19.5
-102 · CASHED · ACTUAL 23
New Orleans Pelicans
Zion scored 22 in 32 minutes against Indiana, and the way he got there carries into this game. He went 6-6 at the line on a night New Orleans shot 37 free throws. He also took 16 shots and was on the floor late, with the ball in his hands on the final possessions. The offense runs through him and Murray.
Utah's answer is Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jackson fouled out in 28 minutes on Wednesday. If Zion gets him in early trouble, the Jazz are down to Hayes, Bradley and Filipowski. Hayes gives up a lot of size to Zion, Bradley is coming back from missing the opener, and Filipowski isn't an option for long minutes. A Utah team that turned it over 18 times in Memphis also gives Zion easy points in transition, which is where he's hardest to stop.
The line asks for less than he scored in the opener, at close to even money. I'll take the over.
What beats it: Jackson stays out of foul trouble and walls off the paint, which is what he's capable of. Murray took 18 shots and scored 23 in the opener, and if he stays hot again, Zion's touches shrink. A blowout either way could also take a few minutes off his night.

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