NBA · Wed, Oct 21 · 8:00 PM

Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans

O/U 239.5 · SPREAD Indiana Pacers -3.5 · Smoothie King Center

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Pacers· -110

The lights come up at Smoothie King Center for the Pelicans' home opener and their 25th season in New Orleans, and Tyrese Haliburton steps onto a regular-season floor for the first time in 486 days. The comeback is the headline, and it's built into this number. The line asks a team that went 19-63 with a -7.9 net rating last season to win by four on the road. The case for that comes from a few preseason halves where Indiana's starters played 16 to 21 minutes. Those halves were impressive: Haliburton, Nembhard, Siakam and Zubac scored 63 of 71 first-half points on 25-of-40 shooting against Milwaukee. But Indiana's intended starting five played together only once all preseason, and reporting says Haliburton's game conditioning is still being rebuilt. The game turns on the non-starter minutes, and that's where Indiana's preseason fell apart. Every lead it built slipped away once the reserves came in. A 19-point lead over Milwaukee ended in an overtime loss, and the trip to Oklahoma City also ended in overtime. Backup center is still undecided among Toppin, Huff and Nance, and the ninth rotation spot is unresolved. New Orleans has a clean injury report and the deeper bench: Fears averaged 13.3 points and 3.3 assists in preseason, Bey scored 19 on 7-of-11 against Washington, and Mathurin averaged 9.3 points in about 17 minutes. The Pelicans also forced 53 steals and blocked 22 shots across four exhibitions, and opponents' shooting dropped from 49.4% to 37.7% over the back half of the preseason. Indiana does have real edges. Zubac against Missi on the glass is the clearest one, and New Orleans shot just 33.1% from three in preseason, with Murphy at 23.8%. But that's four exhibition games, three of them without Murray, with starters on short leashes and a coach still settling the rotation. At +3.5, with a fully healthy roster and a home crowd, a one-to-three-point Indiana win still cashes. Opening night with two rebuilt rotations is exactly when the hook is worth having. I'll take the healthy home dog and make Indiana prove the projection.

The game turns on the non-starter minutes, and that's where Indiana's preseason fell apart. Every lead it built slipped away once the reserves came in. A 19-point lead over Milwaukee ended in an overtime loss, and the trip to Oklahoma City also ended in overtime. Backup center is still undecided among Toppin, Huff and Nance, and the ninth rotation spot is unresolved. New Orleans has a clean injury report and the deeper bench: Fears averaged 13.3 points and 3.3 assists in preseason, Bey scored 19 on 7-of-11 against Washington, and Mathurin averaged 9.3 points in about 17 minutes. The Pelicans also forced 53 steals and blocked 22 shots across four exhibitions, and opponents' shooting dropped from 49.4% to 37.7% over the back half of the preseason.

Indiana does have real edges. Zubac against Missi on the glass is the clearest one, and New Orleans shot just 33.1% from three in preseason, with Murphy at 23.8%. But that's four exhibition games, three of them without Murray, with starters on short leashes and a coach still settling the rotation. At +3.5, with a fully healthy roster and a home crowd, a one-to-three-point Indiana win still cashes. Opening night with two rebuilt rotations is exactly when the hook is worth having. I'll take the healthy home dog and make Indiana prove the projection.

The pick & result

Published pick: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Won
Final score: 123-120

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Indiana Pacers: Johnny Furphy (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery; T.J. McConnell (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain; Aaron Nesmith (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

IND and NOP split last season 1-1
1-1
Indiana and New Orleans split two games last season. Two games tells you almost nothing, so look at tonight's lineups, including Indiana missing McConnell and Furphy.

REPLACEMENT

T.J. McConnell is OUT for IND
OUT
McConnell is out with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the whole preseason. With Furphy also out, Indiana's bench is thinner in New Orleans.
Johnny Furphy is OUT for IND
OUT
Furphy is out after starting 21 of 35 appearances last season with 5.1 points and 4.4 rebounds. His minutes go elsewhere, which matters most for the depth pieces, not the headline names.

SITUATIONAL

Season opener for both teams
OPENER
Both teams open tonight, so rest is even. No schedule edge either way.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 21, 2026 at 5:43 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, betmgm, caesars, ballybet, betparx, betrivers, rebet, fanduel, fanatics, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
BENNEDICT MATHURINPOINTS UNDER 12.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· -105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 11
Bennedict Mathurin faces his old team on opening night, and the revenge story is going to pull money to the over. His role points the other way. Last season's 17.7 points came from 30 minutes a night on an Indiana roster that needed somebody to shoot. In New Orleans he played about 17 minutes a game in preseason and averaged 9.3 points. That was with Dejounte Murray missing most of camp. Murray is back and starting tonight. That leaves Mathurin sharing the bench backcourt with three players who want the same shots. Jeremiah Fears earned real responsibility with his preseason. Jordan Poole needs volume to function. Saddiq Bey led the Washington finale with 19. Mosley is still settling the rotation and grading it in five-game windows, so nobody in that group gets a long leash on night one. Mathurin is the newest piece, and the minutes are the problem. Indiana's wing defense is thinner with Nesmith out, which keeps me from going heavier here. Mathurin's scoring swings hard. His last ten games last season ran from a zero to a 28, and he gets to the free throw line in bunches when he's attacking downhill. What beats it: a hot first stint that earns him second-half run, or a night where Poole goes cold and Mosley leans on Mathurin as the bench scorer. A motivated shooter with a quick trigger can reach 13 in twenty minutes. The minute count and the crowded backcourt still point under, and I'll sit there.
Bennedict Mathurin
Points under 12.5
-105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 11
New Orleans Pelicans
Bennedict Mathurin faces his old team on opening night, and the revenge story is going to pull money to the over. His role points the other way. Last season's 17.7 points came from 30 minutes a night on an Indiana roster that needed somebody to shoot. In New Orleans he played about 17 minutes a game in preseason and averaged 9.3 points. That was with Dejounte Murray missing most of camp.
Murray is back and starting tonight. That leaves Mathurin sharing the bench backcourt with three players who want the same shots. Jeremiah Fears earned real responsibility with his preseason. Jordan Poole needs volume to function. Saddiq Bey led the Washington finale with 19. Mosley is still settling the rotation and grading it in five-game windows, so nobody in that group gets a long leash on night one. Mathurin is the newest piece, and the minutes are the problem.
Indiana's wing defense is thinner with Nesmith out, which keeps me from going heavier here. Mathurin's scoring swings hard. His last ten games last season ran from a zero to a 28, and he gets to the free throw line in bunches when he's attacking downhill.
What beats it: a hot first stint that earns him second-half run, or a night where Poole goes cold and Mosley leans on Mathurin as the bench scorer. A motivated shooter with a quick trigger can reach 13 in twenty minutes. The minute count and the crowded backcourt still point under, and I'll sit there.
GARY'S PICK
ANDREW NEMBHARDPOINTS UNDER 13.5
NBAIndiana Pacers· -104
LOST · ACTUAL 18
The Andrew Nembhard who scored 16.9 a night last season was running an offense nobody else could run. Tonight Tyrese Haliburton is back, and the ball goes into his hands at the start of nearly every possession. Nembhard moves back into the job he had before the injury: second handler, primary defender on the other team's best guard, spot shooter when Haliburton draws two. That version of him scored closer to ten than fourteen. The shot pecking order is crowded. Siakam looked unstoppable in preseason, Zubac's screens with Haliburton are the first action Indiana wants to run, and Oubre is in the starting five to get his looks too. Nembhard's best stretch against Milwaukee came in a first quarter where he was the one creating. With Haliburton on the floor, those possessions become kickouts and hockey assists. The defensive load also eats into his offense. With Nesmith out, Nembhard likely spends long stretches chasing Murray or Murphy. When he does handle, Herb Jones and Murray will be in his space, and this Pelicans group piled up 53 steals across four exhibitions. What beats it: the second unit. McConnell and Nesmith are both out, and if Haliburton's minutes are managed, Nembhard runs the bench groups and picks up usage there. A couple of threes falling plus extra handling time gets him over. I'll take the role change at 13.5.
Andrew Nembhard
Points under 13.5
-104 · LOST · ACTUAL 18
Indiana Pacers
The Andrew Nembhard who scored 16.9 a night last season was running an offense nobody else could run. Tonight Tyrese Haliburton is back, and the ball goes into his hands at the start of nearly every possession. Nembhard moves back into the job he had before the injury: second handler, primary defender on the other team's best guard, spot shooter when Haliburton draws two. That version of him scored closer to ten than fourteen.
The shot pecking order is crowded. Siakam looked unstoppable in preseason, Zubac's screens with Haliburton are the first action Indiana wants to run, and Oubre is in the starting five to get his looks too. Nembhard's best stretch against Milwaukee came in a first quarter where he was the one creating. With Haliburton on the floor, those possessions become kickouts and hockey assists.
The defensive load also eats into his offense. With Nesmith out, Nembhard likely spends long stretches chasing Murray or Murphy. When he does handle, Herb Jones and Murray will be in his space, and this Pelicans group piled up 53 steals across four exhibitions.
What beats it: the second unit. McConnell and Nesmith are both out, and if Haliburton's minutes are managed, Nembhard runs the bench groups and picks up usage there. A couple of threes falling plus extra handling time gets him over. I'll take the role change at 13.5.

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