Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

ABC’s national broadcast kicks off the Atlantic rivalry at TD Garden as the refreshed Celtics look to protect home court against a battle-tested Sixers squad. The postseason begins with a massive spread, but the statistical divergence between these two teams over the final stretch of the season suggests the number hasn't quite caught up to Philadelphia's offensive reality.

While Philadelphia has leaned into a defensive-heavy identity recently, their offensive efficiency has completely stalled. Over their last five games, the 76ers (45-37) have posted a dismal 49.9% eFG%, a significant drop from their season average. This inefficiency is a massive liability against a Boston defense that ranks 1st in the NBA in points allowed (107.2) and allows a league-low 40.1 points in the paint. Philadelphia generates a high percentage of their scoring through drives and interior play, but they are running into the league’s premier defensive wall. In the most recent head-to-head meeting on February 28—the only one this season played with these exact rosters—Boston controlled the game from start to finish in a 114-98 victory.

The rest factor here is equally lopsided. Boston (56-26) has had seven full days to reintegrate Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both of whom missed time for rest but are now 100% available. Philadelphia enters on just four days' rest following a high-intensity Play-In victory over Orlando. History shows that when these teams play with their current identities, Boston’s league-best ball security (11.5 turnovers per game) prevents Philadelphia from fueled-up transition opportunities. With Tatum and Brown both trending upward—averaging a combined 50.5 PPG—and Philadelphia’s veterans like Paul George struggling with efficiency in the L5, the Celtics have the firepower and the specific defensive counters to separate early and maintain a double-digit cushion at home.