Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs
O/U 229.5 · SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -3.5 · Frost Bank Center
Portland Trail Blazers +3.5-114
CONF 78%
LLostFinal 101-112
The read
The Frost Bank Center hosts a fascinating Western Conference clash where the standings tell one story, but tonight’s personnel tells another entirely. While San Antonio has reached the 60-win plateau, they are walking into this matchup without the two pillars of their rotation, as both Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle are sidelined with fresh injuries.
Portland is currently operating with a level of desperation that the market might be underestimating. The Blazers (40-39) are in a dead heat with the Clippers for the 8th seed, and their recent efficiency reflects that urgency. Over their last five games, Portland has posted a massive +13.3 net rating and is averaging 116 points per contest. This surge isn't a fluke; it's driven by the elite playmaking of Deni Avdija, who is averaging 24.0 points and 6.6 assists over that stretch, and the historic shooting of Toumani Camara. With the Blazers shooting 37.4% from deep as a team recently, they have the firepower to exploit a Spurs defense that loses its entire identity without Wembanyama.
The defensive drop-off for San Antonio is the most critical factor here. Without their primary rim protector, the Spurs’ (60-19) defensive rating is projected to balloon toward 118.5, which is bottom-tier territory. This creates a massive opening for Donovan Clingan, who is currently one of the most dominant offensive rebounders in the league. San Antonio is forced to rely on Luke Kornet and Mason Plumlee to anchor the paint, a pairing that will struggle to keep Clingan off the glass or stop Avdija’s penetration. On the other end, De’Aaron Fox has been in a significant scoring slump, averaging just 13.4 points over his last five games. Asking a depleted Spurs roster to cover a spread against a hot Portland team fighting for its playoff life is a tall order. I’m taking the points with the Blazers in a game they have every reason to win outright.
Injuries noted
Portland Trail Blazers: Jerami Grant (Out); Vit Krejci (Doubtful); Shaedon Sharpe (Doubtful)
San Antonio Spurs: Stephon Castle (Out); Victor Wembanyama (Out)
About this analysis
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- Board stored April 8, 2026 at 11:13 AM ET.
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Props on this game
2Deni AvdijaOVER 25.5 Points Points+100
Not yet graded
Deni Avdija has evolved into Portland's primary offensive engine with Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe sidelined. He is currently averaging 24.0 PPG and has cleared this 25.5-point threshold in three of his last five games (26, 26, and 28 points). The most significant factor tonight is the absence of San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama.
Wembanyama is the premier rim protector in the league, and the Spurs' interior defense regresses significantly when he sits, allowing nearly 10 additional points per game in the paint. Avdija is a high-volume rim-attacker, averaging 20.3 drives per game and generating 42% of his points in the paint. Without Wembanyama to contest him at the cup, Avdija's most efficient scoring path is wide open.
Expect him to leverage his 28.3% usage rate into high-volume scoring opportunities against a weakened Spurs interior.
De'Aaron FoxOVER 6.5 Assists Assists+100
Not yet graded
De'Aaron Fox faces a massive playmaking vacuum tonight with both Stephon Castle (13 assists last game) and Victor Wembanyama ruled out. These two players represent a significant portion of San Antonio's offensive initiation.
Fox already maintains a 33.2% assist share, but his role as a facilitator will be hyper-concentrated in this lineup. As the sole elite initiator available, Fox will be responsible for almost every high-value playmaking decision.
While his season average is 6.1 APG, the specific absence of Castle's 10+ assists and Wembanyama's high-post facilitation forces the ball into Fox's hands for longer durations. Portland's defensive trend of limiting three-pointers will likely force Fox to collapse the defense and find teammates in the mid-range or at the rim, providing ample opportunities to reach the 7-assist mark.
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