Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies

The Raptors head into FedExForum with their eyes on the Eastern Conference’s sixth seed, while the Grizzlies are just trying to find enough healthy bodies to finish the season. With Toronto fighting to avoid the play-in tournament and Memphis essentially fielding a G-League-heavy rotation, the motivation and talent disparity here is about as wide as it gets in the NBA.

Toronto gets a significant boost tonight with leading scorer Brandon Ingram returning to a lineup that’s already found a high-level rhythm through Scottie Barnes’ historic playmaking stretch. Barnes has been picking defenses apart with 12.2 assists per game over his last five outings, and adding Ingram’s 21.4 points per game back into the mix creates a nightmare for a Memphis defense that has cratered. The Grizzlies are currently posting a defensive rating of 122.9 in their last five games, allowing opponents a massive 58.3% effective field goal percentage. When you pair an elite playmaker like Barnes with established finishers like Ingram and RJ Barrett against a rotating door of hardship-contract defenders, the efficiency gap becomes insurmountable.

The deciding factor, however, is the absolute dominance Toronto should exert in the paint. Memphis is coming off a performance where they managed only 20 total rebounds—one of the lowest marks in league history—and they’ve been the worst rebounding team in the NBA since the All-Star break. Without any real size to combat Jakob Poeltl or the length of Barnes, Memphis is going to give up a staggering amount of second-chance points. The Grizzlies have lost 15 of their last 17 games, with four of their last five losses coming by double digits. Toronto has already proven they can blow the doors off inferior teams, and with the stakes this high for playoff positioning, they aren't going to let up.