Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks

It is a battle of the basement at Fiserv Forum as two teams officially looking toward the lottery square off, but the massive personnel shift occurring tonight completely changes the math on this two-point spread. While the Milwaukee Bucks have looked like a team that quit over the last week—posting a league-worst -22.9 net rating over their last five games—that collapse happened while their entire functional core was in the training room.

The market appears to be pricing in Milwaukee’s recent string of 30-point blowouts without accounting for the massive talent infusion they receive tonight. The Bucks are welcoming back their top three active scorers in Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, and Myles Turner. Rollins has emerged as a high-usage playmaker averaging 17.0 points, and his return alongside a "hot" Gary Trent Jr., who is coming off a 36-point explosion, gives Milwaukee a perimeter punch that Dallas simply cannot match with their current injury list. Furthermore, Myles Turner’s availability is the equalizer in the paint; he anchors a defense that allows nearly 11 fewer points in the lane per game than the Mavericks.

Conversely, Dallas is walking into a physical buzzsaw tonight. The Mavericks (24-51) are on the second night of a back-to-back after getting routed by 30 points at home yesterday, and they are doing so with a skeleton crew. The fresh absences of Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Marvin Bagley III, and Naji Marshall strip away over 45 points of nightly production and nearly all of the team's veteran spacing. Relying exclusively on rookie Cooper Flagg and Daniel Gafford to carry the load on zero days of rest against a rested Milwaukee squad (29-45) that finally has its starters back is a losing proposition. Milwaukee has two days of rest, home-court advantage, and the superior shooting profile (56.4% eFG% vs. 52.9%). I’ll take the points with the home team that actually has its primary rotation intact for the first time in ten days.