New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks

We’ve got an intriguing cross-conference clash at Madison Square Garden tonight as the surging New York Knicks host a New Orleans Pelicans squad looking to play spoiler on the road. On paper, the Knicks look like an unstoppable juggernaut right now. They are riding a six-game winning streak and boasting a massive +15.5 Net Rating over their last five contests. However, context is everything in the NBA. That recent dominant stretch came against bottom-tier competition with a combined .268 winning percentage, including the Wizards, Nets, and Pacers. Tonight, they step up in weight class against a New Orleans team that is playing significantly better than their 25-47 overall record indicates.

Since the All-Star break, the Pelicans are a highly competitive 10-6. Over their last five games, they’ve posted a solid +5.3 Net Rating against a much tougher slate of playoff-caliber opponents featuring a .534 winning percentage, including two outright wins over the Clippers. A massive catalyst for this turnaround has been the return to form of Dejounte Murray, who is averaging 18.7 points and 6.2 assists in his 10 appearances since recovering from Achilles surgery. When these two teams met back in December, the Knicks barely escaped with a 130-125 victory, and that was with New Orleans missing Murray entirely. His playmaking presence, combined with the offensive consistency of Saddiq Bey and Trey Murphy III, gives the Pelicans the necessary perimeter firepower to keep pace.

The Knicks certainly have distinct advantages, most notably Karl-Anthony Towns attacking a New Orleans interior defense that ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint. However, the Pelicans are well-rested with three full days off, and their recent defensive integration anchored by Herb Jones has stabilized a unit that struggled heavily earlier in the year. With the market overvaluing New York's recent blowout wins against tanking rosters, laying 8.5 points is too steep of an asking price. I'm grabbing the points with a battle-tested New Orleans squad that has been playing highly competitive basketball for the last month.