Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns

We’ve got a late-season clash in the desert as the surging Toronto Raptors roll into the Mortgage Matchup Center to face a Phoenix Suns team desperate to snap a five-game slide.

Phoenix has looked awful over their last five games, posting a -7.7 Net Rating and allowing 117.0 points per 100 possessions defensively. But that recent data comes with a massive asterisk. During this stretch, the Suns were missing Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen, Mark Williams, and Royce O'Neale. That is roughly 60 points per game of missing production, forcing Devin Booker and Jalen Green to carry an unsustainable workload. Tonight, all four of those key rotation pieces are back and available. The market is pricing the Suns based on the skeleton crew that took the floor over the last week, creating value on a roster that is suddenly whole again.

Toronto comes in with two days of rest and playing high-level basketball, highlighted by a +6.0 Net Rating in their last five games. But laying three points on the road against a fully reloaded Suns team is a tall order. Yes, Phoenix is on the second night of a back-to-back, but they didn't have to travel after last night's tight loss to Milwaukee. With their reinforcements returning, Phoenix's bench depth—which already accounts for 36.5% of their top-10 scoring—will be completely replenished. This newly restored depth will allow them to distribute minutes and handle the back-to-back fatigue much better than the schedule suggests.

Toronto won the previous matchup 122-115 ten days ago behind 36 points from Brandon Ingram, but that was on their home floor. Getting a fully stocked Suns team as a home underdog in a spot where they are fighting to stay in the West's playoff picture is exactly the kind of setup I look for. The recent metrics for Phoenix are ugly, but those numbers belong to a depleted roster, not the one taking the floor tonight. I'll take the points with the home team.