NBA · Fri, Mar 6 · 7:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics

O/U 224.5 · SPREAD Boston Celtics -13.5 · TD Garden

Gary's pick

Boston Celtics -13.5-122

CONF 85%

Result

WCashedFinal 100-120

The read

We're live at TD Garden tonight as the Boston Celtics welcome the Dallas Mavericks to town, featuring the highly anticipated season debut of Jayson Tatum.

The Celtics are stepping onto their home floor with two days of rest and a massive chip on their shoulder after an uncharacteristic 29-point loss to the Hornets earlier this week. Jaylen Brown publicly took the blame for that lifeless performance, and you can expect a highly focused, aggressive Boston squad right out of the gate. They're getting an emotional lift with Tatum returning to the rotation, and while he'll be on a strict minutes limit, his presence alone energizes a team that already boasts a +8.0 Net Rating and the league's top scoring defense at 107.1 points allowed per game.

On the other side, Dallas is stepping into a brutal situational spot. The Mavericks are playing the second night of a back-to-back after a grueling one-point loss in Orlando, and they are essentially waving the white flag by resting rookie phenom Cooper Flagg. Without Flagg's 20.3 points per game and playmaking gravity, the offense falls entirely on veterans like Klay Thompson and Brandon Williams against the stingiest defense in basketball. To make matters worse, Dallas's frontcourt is completely decimated. With Daniel Gafford sitting out for injury management alongside other established absences, the Mavericks have zero interior resistance to throw at Nikola Vučević and Neemias Queta, who have been dominating the paint for Boston.

Dallas is in the midst of a five-game slide, posting a disastrous -16.2 Net Rating over their last five games with an offensive rating barely cracking 100. Traveling up the East Coast on zero rest to face an angry, rested Celtics team that already beat them by double digits earlier this year is a recipe for a blowout. Boston's methodical pace and elite ball security mean they won't hand Dallas the cheap transition opportunities they need to stay attached. Lay the big number with the rested home team.

Injuries noted

Dallas Mavericks: Marvin Bagley III (Doubtful); Daniel Gafford (Doubtful); Dereck Lively II (Out); Klay Thompson (Prob); Brandon Williams (Prob)

Boston Celtics: Jordan Walsh (Questionable)

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Board stored March 6, 2026 at 8:31 AM ET.
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