New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

The Pelicans and Jazz conclude their baseball-style series at the Delta Center tonight with two teams heading in entirely different directions. New Orleans is riding a season-best three-game winning streak, while Utah is mired in a four-game skid and dealing with the fallout of a massive roster overhaul and a hefty fine from the league office.

The fundamental handicap in this matchup revolves around a catastrophic structural mismatch in the paint that Utah simply cannot scheme away. The Jazz are operating without their primary frontcourt rotation, missing Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusuf Nurkic. In Thursday's matchup between these exact two teams, New Orleans mercilessly exploited this void, scoring 64 points in the paint and shooting over 64 percent inside the arc. With rookie Kyle Filipowski serving as the primary interior presence for Utah, Zion Williamson faces virtually zero resistance at the rim.

While the 11-point final margin on Thursday makes this look like a competitive game, the game flow tells a completely different story. New Orleans dropped 78 points in the first half and built a 27-point lead in the third quarter before pulling their main rotation. Utah's bench outscored the Pelicans' reserves 34-21 in a meaningless fourth quarter to make the final score look respectable. The spread tonight feels heavily anchored to that garbage-time finish.

The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray tonight as they manage his workload ahead of a back-to-back, but New Orleans proved on Thursday they do not necessarily need him to generate offense against a Utah defense that ranks second-worst in the NBA. Saddiq Bey has emerged as a massive offensive catalyst during the Pelicans' winning streak, averaging over 23 points in his last five games and coming off a 42-point performance against this exact Jazz perimeter defense. Utah is getting Keyonte George back, which provides a scoring boost, but his return could also temporarily exacerbate the team's biggest flaw. The Jazz have a league-worst turnover rate, and reintegrating George into a high-pace offense against a Pelicans defense that just forced 18 turnovers is a recipe for transition disasters. The Jazz simply do not have the personnel in the frontcourt to stop Williamson or the perimeter defenders to cool down Bey. I expect New Orleans to build another significant lead early and cover the number.