Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
Smoothie King Center
Brooklyn Nets ML-102
LLostFinal 113-116
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL)
New Orleans Pelicans Brooklyn Nets Record 9-33 → 11-26 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries H. Jones (O), J. Alvarado (O) Z. Williams (O), E. Liddell (Q)
Gary's Take Tonight's matchup in the Big Easy is a classic case of the market anchoring to a home favorite narrative while ignoring a massive shift in the actual on-court reality. The Pelicans are walking into a situation fraught with fatigue. They played a physical game against Denver last night and are now on a back-to-back, facing a Brooklyn squad that has had two days of rest. More importantly, the Nets are getting their offensive engine back. The return of Cam Thomas and Egor Demin completely changes the geometry of this game.
The Pelicans' defense has been a disaster without Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, ranking near the bottom of the league. They simply don't have the perimeter personnel to chase Thomas around screens or prevent Michael Porter Jr. from getting clean looks—the same Porter Jr. who dropped 35 on them back in December. While Zion Williamson is always a threat, Nic Claxton provides a legitimate rim-protecting deterrent that New Orleans simply can't match on the other end.
Brooklyn already beat this team by 18 points earlier this season, and that was without the rest advantage they enjoy tonight. When you combine a top-10 defense against a bottom-3 defense that is playing on tired legs, the spread for the home team looks entirely backwards. I expect Thomas to come out aggressive and for Brooklyn's defensive intensity to overwhelm a Pelicans team that is likely to fade in the second half. This is a situational mismatch where the better-rested and healthier team is being given points. I am taking Brooklyn Nets ML -102.
Injuries noted
Brooklyn Nets: Haywood Highsmith (Out) — Highsmith is still waiting to make his Nets debut while he continues to recover from Aug. 8 surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. At the time he suffered the injury, Highsmith was projected to require an 8-to-10-week recovery period, but he experienced renewed swelling in his knee shortly before the start of the regular season that prompted the Nets to push his timeline back further. Highsmith was scheduled to be re-evaluated in late December, but the Nets haven't provided any sort of concrete update regarding where he stands in his rehab program.; E.J. Liddell (Questionable) — Liddell has been a prominent player for Long Island in the G League, but he has just eight appearances at the NBA level this season for an average of 4.4 minutes per contest.; Ziaire Williams (Questionable) — Wednesday will mark the third consecutive game on the inactive list for Williams due to this illness, and for now, he should be considered questionable for Friday's game versus the Bulls. That said, Williams had fallen out of the rotation before getting sick, so his absence from the active roster won't impact fantasy leagues.
New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray (Out) — For his part, Murray -- who underwent surgery Feb. 5, 2025 to address his torn right Achilles tendon -- hasn't provided an update since the Pelicans' media availability day back in September regarding where he stands in his rehab program. The 29-year-old hasn't necessarily hit any snags in his recovery, but Borrego noted that he couldn't "say for sure" that Murray will play any point in 2025-26 until the Pelicans get a chance to evaluate him live on the court during practices or scrimmages. At the very least, Borrego's comment about the Pelicans hoping to have more clarity on Murray's status in the next month would seem to indicate that New Orleans isn't counting on Murray making it back before the All-Star break in mid-February. In the meantime, rookie first-round pick Jeremiah Fears will continue to serve as the Pelicans' starting point guard amid Murray's absence.; Herbert Jones (Out) — Wednesday is marking a fifth consecutive absence for Jones, whose next chance to play arrives Friday in Indiana. Saddiq Bey is primed for a big workload against Brooklyn, with Jordan Hawkins also being a candidate for an expanded role off the bench.; Jose Alvarado (Out) — Alvarado has already missed three games in a row with left oblique soreness, and it sounds like the Pelicans want to give him even more time to get the issue resolved. With the guard staying on the shelf, Bryce McGowens has played at least 26 minutes in three straight contests and seems to be the direct fantasy beneficiary of Alvarado's absence.
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- Board stored January 14, 2026 at 5:49 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Michael Porter JrOVER 26.5 Points Points-106
LActual 20
MPJ is the centerpiece of the NBA trade market right now, and Brooklyn is actively 'showcasing' him to drive up the bidding war before the Feb 5 deadline. He is coming off a monster 35-point performance against this same New Orleans team just a month ago and has maintained a high-usage role (28.5%) as the primary scoring engine.
With the Pelicans on the second night of a back-to-back and missing their elite perimeter defenders (Murray and Jones), Porter will have clean looks from deep where he averages 3.8 makes per game. The narrow spread (-2) ensures he stays on the floor for his full 34+ minute workload.
Even if his efficiency takes a slight hit, the volume of shots he's being funneled in this specific game environment makes the 26.5 line a value play.
Cam ThomasUNDER 17.5 Points Points-119
WActual 16
This is a high-conviction 'minutes-trap' under based on recent injury management data. While Cam Thomas is an elite scorer, the Nets are strictly managing his return from a hamstring strain with a hard cap of ~22 minutes per game.
He has averaged fewer than 22 minutes in his recent appearances, and with MPJ being prioritized for trade showcase reasons, Thomas is effectively the secondary option. To clear 17.5 points in such a limited window, he would need 75%+ true shooting efficiency—something he rarely achieves against a professional defense.
Betting against the volume here is the sharp move before the market realizes his workload remains capped. The slow pace of both teams further reduces the total possession count for him to find a rhythm.
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