Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets
Toyota Center
Chicago Bulls +12.5-112
WCashedFinal 113-119
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL)
Houston Rockets Chicago Bulls Record 22-14 ← 18-20 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries F. VanVleet (O), T. Eason (O) J. Giddey (O), C. White (O), Y. Kawamura (Q)
Gary's Take I’ve been around long enough to know when a line is screaming for you to take the favorite, and this 12.5-point spread on the Rockets is exactly that. The betting public sees a Chicago backcourt missing both Josh Giddey and Coby White and assumes a blowout is inevitable. But the math tells a different story. Houston plays at one of the slowest tempos in the league, averaging just 97.8 possessions per game. When you play that slow, you have to be nearly perfect to cover a 13-point margin, and the Rockets haven't been perfect lately. They are currently mired in a three-game losing streak and have struggled to put away sub-.500 teams like Portland.
Chicago is going to play fast—they lead the league in pace at 104.4—and that creates the kind of high-possession, high-variance environment where big underdogs thrive. Ayo Dosunmu has been playing some of the best basketball of his career lately, averaging over 18 points in his last five outings. He and Tre Jones are going to push the ball in transition to exploit a Houston defense that can be vulnerable when they aren't allowed to set their half-court shell.
While the Rockets have a massive advantage in bench depth, I expect the Bulls to hang around long enough to make this a sweat. Matas Buzelis is seeing a significant usage spike with the starters out, and his ability to stretch the floor could pull Alperen Sengun away from the rim, opening up lanes for Dosunmu. Houston likely wins this game at home, but asking a slumping, slow-paced team to cover double digits against a track-meet opponent is a tall order. I’m taking the points with the Bulls. Chicago Bulls +12.5.
Injuries noted
Chicago Bulls: Zach Collins (Out) — According to Williams, the Bulls have no immediate plans for Collins to undergo a procedure on his foot, but the big man looks like he'll have to don the boot for the foreseeable future while he waits for his sprained toe to heal. Collins has already missed seven straight games due to the injury, and his absence appears likely to extend into February, and potentially through the All-Star break. With Collins out of the mix, the Bulls should have regular spots in the frontcourt rotation available for both Jalen Smith and Patrick Williams.; Josh Giddey (Out) — Shams Charania of ESPN reported Tuesday that Giddey is expected to miss "at least a few weeks" due to a left hamstring strain he sustained in Monday's loss to the Timberwolves. While the Bulls are set to re-evaluate him in two weeks, the 23-year-old point guard will likely require additional time to ramp up in practice. With Giddey sidelined, Tre Jones and Ayo Dosunmu are candidates for increased playing time, while Jevon Carter will likely enter the Chicago rotation.; Yuki Kawamura (Questionable) — Kawamura signed a two-way pact with the Bulls in July but was waived before the start of the regular season. However, he'll rejoin the team on a two-way deal. In a corresponding move, Chicago has waived Trentyn Flowers (knee). Kawamura will likely spend most of his time with the G League's Windy City Bulls, though he should provide emergency depth for the parent club while Josh Giddey (hamstring) is sidelined.; Julian Phillips (Questionable) — Phillips was previously labeled as probable. He's a very minor part of the rotation, so this news will not have a big fantasy impact on Tuesday's slate.; Coby White (Out) — Tuesday's game is the front end of a back-to-back set, so White will be held out for maintenance as per usual. Fantasy managers can assume that he will be back Wednesday to face the Jazz. As for Tuesday, Kevin Huerter and Tre Jones could be more involved in the backcourt.
Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet (Out) — VanVleet struggled with efficiency during his second season in Houston, but the Rockets' win-loss record with him on the court (41-19) spoke volumes about his overall impact on the team. With VanVleet sidelined, the runway is clear for Reed Sheppard, who barely had a role as a rookie. Amen Thompson could also handle a ton of ball-handling responsibilities, while Aaron Holiday is the only other true point guard on the roster currently.; Tari Eason (Out) — Eason will miss a second straight game due to a right ankle sprain. Aaron Holiday saw a sizable uptick in playing time Sunday in Eason's absence, though Josh Okogie is also a candidate to see more chances Tuesday.; Dorian Finney-Smith (Out) — Finney-Smith missed the onset of the season due to offseason left ankle surgery, and the Rockets are giving him Tuesday night off. Thursday's matchup against the Thunder is his next chance to suit up. His absence should allow Aaron Holiday and Josh Okogie to see an uptick in playing time off the bench Tuesday.
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- Board stored January 13, 2026 at 5:24 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Ayo DosunmuOVER 14.5 Points Points-120
LActual 7
The books are asleep at the wheel here, setting this line at Ayo's season average despite the Bulls' backcourt being a total hospital ward tonight. With Giddey and White both out, Dosunmu isn't just a starter; he's the entire engine of the perimeter offense.
He's already been torching this number, averaging 18.4 points over his last five games while playing alongside those guys. Now, the usage vacuum is massive, and he's going to see a career-high shot volume against a Rockets team that's been sliding lately.
The only risk is a total blowout, but Chicago has a rest advantage and Ayo is the type of high-motor kid who stays in until the final whistle. I'm hammering this before the market realizes he's the #1 option tonight.
Nikola VucevicOVER 15.5 Points Points-110
LActual 14
Vucevic is the ultimate 'floor' guy, and tonight that floor is significantly higher with Chicago's primary guards watching from the sidelines. He's been in a groove, averaging 19 points over his last five, and the Bulls will have no choice but to run the offense through him in the high post.
While Sengun is a tough matchup, Vooch's ability to stretch the floor (38.6% from deep) is the perfect counter to Houston's interior-heavy defense. He's chasing milestones and playing for his next contract, and he knows the team needs 20+ from him just to stay competitive.
The line of 15.5 is a massive disrespect to a guy who's cleared it in four of his last five games. Expect a heavy dose of Vooch early and often.
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