San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The pick & result
- Published pick
- San Antonio Spurs -5.5 -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 123-113
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
San Antonio Indiana Record 24-9 ← 6-28 Off Rating 117.2 ← 107.8 Def Rating 112.3 ← 114.7 Net Rating +4.9 ← -6.9 Key Injuries Wembanyama (OUT) Haliburton (OUT)
Gary's Take Don't let the absence of Victor Wembanyama scare you off the right side here. The San Antonio Spurs are a well-oiled machine sitting at 2nd in the West, while the Indiana Pacers are in a complete organizational freefall. We are looking at a "Lost Season" in Indiana—without Tyrese Haliburton, they have plummeted to the bottom of the East, losing their last five games by an average margin of 14 points. Their defense is non-existent, surrendering 142, 140, and 126 points in three of their last four outings.
Even without their generational big man, the Spurs have plenty of firepower. De'Aaron Fox is thriving in San Antonio's system, and sophomore sensation Stephon Castle (17.9 PPG) has emerged as a legitimate secondary star. This matchup is tailor-made for Fox; the Pacers play fast (102.6 Pace) but defend nobody, creating the perfect runway for Fox to attack the rim at will. The efficiency gap here is staggering—San Antonio boasts a Net Rating advantage of nearly 12 points.
Pascal Siakam is a warrior, but he is on an island. The Pacers simply do not have the depth or defensive discipline to keep up with a Spurs team that executes at an elite level regardless of who is on the floor. Indiana is 1-15 in their last 16 road games and just 5-13 at home; home court means nothing for a team this broken. Expect Fox and Castle to run circles around a demoralized Pacers defense.
Injuries noted
San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama (Out) — Jan 1: Wembanyama's MRI on his left knee came back clean, though he will not travel with the Spurs for Friday's game against Indiana, Michael C. Wright of ESPN.com reports.; Harrison Ingram (Day-To-Day) — Jan 1: Ingram has signed a two-way contract with the Spurs, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.; Devin Vassell (Out) — Jan 1: Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson said prior to Wednesday's 134-132 win over the Knicks that Vassell's left adductor strain will keep him out for "more than a game or two," Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Indiana Pacers: T.J. McConnell (Day-To-Day) — Jan 1: McConnell (hamstring) is probable for Friday's game against the Spurs.; Isaiah Jackson (Out) — Jan 1: Jackson is out for Friday's game against the Spurs due to a concussion.; Obi Toppin (Out) — Oct 31: Toppin will undergo surgery to place a screw in his right foot Monday, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.; Tyrese Haliburton (Out) — Jul 7: Haliburton will miss the entire 2025-26 season while recovering from surgery on his right Achilles tendon, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored January 2, 2026 at 4:59 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJULIAN CHAMPAGNIEPOINTS OVER 11.5
Listen, the books are asleep at the wheel on this one. Julian Champagnie just set a franchise record with 11 triples and 36 points, and yet his line is sitting down here at 11.5? With Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell both out of the lineup, the Spurs are missing over 40 points of production.
Champagnie is going to be the primary beneficiary of that shot volume. Indiana's defense is a sieve, giving up nearly 120 points a night lately.
I expect Julian to keep his hand hot and breeze past this number before the third quarter even ends.
- GARY'S PICKPASCAL SIAKAMPOINTS OVER 23.5
Pascal Siakam is the last man standing in Indiana with Haliburton out for the year. He's been averaging 23.5 on the season, but tonight's matchup is a gift from the basketball gods.
Usually, you've got to worry about Wembanyama waiting at the rim to swat everything away, but with the Big Fella sidelined, the paint is wide open. Siakam is a savvy veteran who knows how to exploit a young Spurs frontcourt featuring Luke Kornet.
He’s going to live at the rim and the free-throw line tonight. Look for Pascal to put the team on his back and hunt his shot aggressively to stop this 10-game slide.
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