Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Phoenix Suns +6.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 113-129
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Cleveland Phoenix Record 18-16 ← 19-13 Off Rating 114.8 ← 113.5 Def Rating 113.0 = 113.0 Net Rating +1.8 ← +0.5 OREB Rate 22.9% → 30.0% eFG Pct 53.1% → 54.2% Key Injuries Strus (OUT) Green (OUT)
Gary's Take
The market is asleep at the wheel on this one, staring too hard at season-long Net Rating while ignoring the current reality on the floor. The Phoenix Suns are playing like a legitimate contender right now, riding a 4-game winning streak where they've handled business on the road. The engine behind this run isn't just Devin Booker—it's a ferocious commitment to the glass. Phoenix boasts a startling 30.0% Offensive Rebounding Rate compared to Cleveland's pedestrian 22.9%. In a game with a high total (235.5), those extra possessions are pure gold.
Conversely, the Cavaliers are sputtering. While they sit at 18-16, their recent form is shaky (2-2 last 4), and more alarmingly, Donovan Mitchell is in a confirmed cold spell, scoring just 10 and 16 points in his last two outings. When your superstar usage-rate engine is misfiring, covering a nearly 7-point spread against a team with a better record and better shooting efficiency (54.2% eFG) becomes a monumental task.
This is a classic "Wrong Team Favored" scenario masked by home-court advantage. Cleveland might scrape out a win in this New Year's Eve matinee, but the Suns are the sharper side. I'm taking the points, but the +195 Moneyline is definitely live for the bold.
**Pick: Phoenix Suns +6.5 100**
Injuries noted
Phoenix Suns: Ryan Dunn (Day-To-Day) — Dec 30: Dunn is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers due to a right knee contusion.; Grayson Allen (Questionable) — Dec 30: Allen (knee) is doubtful for Wednesday's game against Cleveland.; Jalen Green (Out) — Dec 22: Green (hamstring) continues to make good progress in his recovery and will be re-evaluated in 2-to-3 weeks, Kellan Olson of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Larry Nance Jr. (Out) — Dec 30: Nance is out for Wednesday's game against the Suns due to a strained right calf.; Max Strus (Out) — Dec 30: Strus (foot) won't play Wednesday against the Suns and remains without a timetable to return.; Sam Merrill (Day-To-Day) — Dec 30: Merrill is probable for Wednesday's game against the Suns due to left hip soreness.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored December 31, 2025 at 9:16 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCOLLIN GILLESPIEPOINTS OVER 16.5
I'm seeing Collin 'Mr. Consistent' Gillespie absolutely cooking right now.
With Jalen Green and Grayson Allen sidelined, the Suns have handed the keys to this kid, and he's not just driving—he's drag racing. Coming off a 25-point masterpiece against the Wizards and a 17-point outing before that, he's become the primary beneficiary of the defensive gravity Devin Booker creates.
Cleveland's perimeter defense has been leaky lately, and Gillespie's elite 43.2% clip from deep is a nightmare for a Cavs team that struggles to close out on shooters. He's playing heavy minutes and closing games, making this 16.5 line look like a massive oversight for a guy who has become the Suns' second-most reliable scoring option during this road trip.
- GARY'S PICKROYCE O'NEALE3-POINTERS OVER 2.5
Royce O'Neale is currently in one of those 'flamethrower' stretches where the basket looks like an ocean. He's knocked down five triples in each of his last two games, and with the Suns playing short-handed tonight, his volume is effectively locked in.
Cleveland's defensive identity is built on Mobley and Allen protecting the paint, which naturally leaves the corners open for a veteran sniper like Royce to capitalize. He's averaging nearly three makes a game on the season already, but in this specific role as a spacing specialist for Booker, he’s seeing higher quality looks than usual.
On a national TV stage like New Year's Eve, expect O'Neale to keep firing from deep to keep the Suns' winning streak alive.
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