Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Kaseya Center
Miami Heat +2.0-110
CONF 63%
WCashedFinal 123-147
The read
Tale of the Tape Miami Heat Denver Nuggets Record 17-15 ← 22-9 Off Rating 113.0 → 123.9 Def Rating 109.9 ← 115.4 Net Rating +3.1 → +8.5 Key Injuries Herro (OUT) Gordon/Braun (OUT)
Gary's Take The Denver Nuggets are rightfully the superior team on paper, but their recent defensive form is a massive red flag that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. Without defensive anchor Aaron Gordon and perimeter stopper Christian Braun, Denver has been hemorrhaging points, allowing a staggering 132 points per game over their last three contests. You simply cannot trust a road favorite laying points when they are giving up 127, 138, and 131 points in consecutive games.
While Nikola Jokic is playing at an MVP level (averaging 31.6 PPG in his last five), he is essentially playing 1-on-5 defensively right now. The Nuggets' wing depth is decimated, forcing them to rely on rookie Spencer Jones and an undersized rotation. This plays directly into Miami's hands. Even with Tyler Herro likely out, the Heat have Norman Powell (23.7 PPG) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. to exploit Denver's porous perimeter defense. More importantly, Bam Adebayo is one of the few defenders on Earth with the versatility to at least make Jokic work for his production.
Miami boasts a significantly better defensive rating (109.9 vs 115.4) and a strong 11-5 home record. In a game where Denver will likely have to outscore their own defensive mistakes, I'll take the home team with the functional defense. The Nuggets are 12-4 on the road, but this specific version of their roster is too thin to trust as a favorite in South Beach.
Miami Heat +2.0.
Injuries noted
Denver Nuggets: Cameron Johnson (Out) — Dec 25: Johnson will be reevaluated in 4-to-6 weeks due to a right knee contusion, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.; Tamar Bates (Out) — Dec 22: The Nuggets announced Monday that Bates (foot) will be re-evaluated in 12 weeks.; Christian Braun (Out) — Dec 13: Braun (ankle) was spotted doing some training off to the side during Saturday's practice, Brendan Vogt of TheDNVR.com reports.; Aaron Gordon (Out) — Dec 9: Gordon (hamstring) is not expected to return before Christmas, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.
Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo (Day-To-Day) — Dec 28: Adebayo (back) is probable for Monday's game against the Nuggets, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.; Tyler Herro (Out) — Dec 27: Head coach Erik Spoelstra said Saturday that Herro (toe) is progressing well in his recovery but is without a timetable for a return, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.; Terry Rozier (Out) — Oct 23: The NBA placed Rozier on immediate leave from the Heat on Thursday, ESPN's Shams Charania reports.
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- Board stored December 29, 2025 at 4:58 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Nikola JokicOVER 13.5 Rebounds Rebounds-103
LActual 5
Nikola Jokic is in the midst of a historic rebounding stretch, particularly since teammate Aaron Gordon was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Gordon's absence removes Denver's second-best rebounder from the lineup, forcing Jokic to shoulder a massive burden on the glass.
In his last two games without Gordon, Jokic has recorded 21 and 16 rebounds respectively, well above the 13.5 line. While his season average of 12.4 RPG is slightly below the line, his recent form and the specific injury context create a significant edge.
With Christian Braun also out, the Nuggets lose another active rebounder, further solidifying Jokic's role as the primary glass cleaner against a Miami team that is currently monitoring Bam Adebayo's back injury. Expect Jokic to dominate the interior and clear this total with ease.
Nikola JokicOVER 10.5 Assists Assists-136
LActual 8
Nikola Jokic's playmaking has reached elite levels of consistency, clearing the 10.5 assist mark in each of his last four games with totals of 12, 15, 14, and 13. His season average of 11.1 APG already provides a cushion against this line, and the current roster situation in Denver further amplifies his role as the primary offensive hub.
With Gordon, Braun, and Johnson all sidelined, Jokic is responsible for nearly every offensive initiation, and his assist volume reflects that increased responsibility. Miami's perimeter defense is also weakened by the absences of Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier, which should allow Denver's cutters and shooters more space to convert Jokic's passes.
Given that he recorded 16 assists in his previous matchup against the Heat this season, he is well-positioned to maintain his streak of double-digit assist performances.
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