Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers
Moda Center
Celtics -7-108
CONF 85%
Not yet graded
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Trail Blazers Celtics Record 12-19 19-11 ← Off Rating 112.9 119.8 ← Def Rating 115.7 113.3 ← Net Rating -2.8 +6.6 ← Key Injuries Grant/Holiday (OUT) Tatum (OUT)
Gary's Take This spread feels suspiciously light given the state of these two rosters. The Boston Celtics arrive in Portland on a four-game winning streak, having adjusted perfectly to life without Jayson Tatum. Their offense is humming with a 119.8 rating, led by Jaylen Brown's 29.4 PPG dominance and Derrick White's steady hand. More importantly, they protect the ball at an elite level (9.8% turnover rate), maximizing every possession.
The Portland Trail Blazers are essentially fielding a skeleton crew. With Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday sidelined alongside their long-term absences, they are missing their primary perimeter defenders and veteran scorers. While Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe have put up empty calorie numbers, this team lacks the structure to compete with a disciplined contender. Portland's -2.8 net rating dips significantly lower when you remove Grant's production from the equation.
The narrative kicker here is Anfernee Simons returning to Portland in a Celtics uniform. Expect him to be aggressive off the bench against his former team's depleted backcourt. Boston has too much firepower and discipline for a Portland squad that is sloppy with the ball (14.1% turnover rate) and defenseless on the perimeter. Lay the points comfortably.
Give me Celtics -7 to handle business on the road.
Injuries noted
Boston Celtics: Chris Boucher (Out) — Dec 27: Boucher (personal) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Portland, Justin Turpin of WEEI.com reports.; Jayson Tatum (Out) — Oct 9: The Celtics have not ruled Tatum (Achilles) out for the 2025-26 season, ESPN's Shams Charania reported on the Pat McAfee Show on Thursday.
Portland Trail Blazers: Robert Williams III (Out) — Dec 27: Williams (injury management) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Celtics.; Jerami Grant (Out) — Dec 27: Grant (Achilles) won't play in Sunday's game against Boston.; Scoot Henderson (Out) — Dec 19: Henderson (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's matchup against the Kings.; Jrue Holiday (Out) — Dec 19: Holiday (calf) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Kings.; Matisse Thybulle (Out) — Dec 13: Thybulle (thumb) has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup against Golden State.; Blake Wesley (Out) — Nov 5: Wesley underwent a successful procedure to repair a fracture of the fifth metatarsal base in his right foot Wednesday, and he's expected to be sidelined for 8-12 weeks, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.; Damian Lillard (Out) — Sep 25: Lillard won't be back on the court for the 2025-26 season, as he made clear during an interview with YouTube influencer Speed on Wednesday.
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored December 28, 2025 at 8:37 AM ET.
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- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Source names were not retained with this call.
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Props on this game
2Derrick WhiteOVER 18.5 Points Points-119
LActual 12
Derrick White is in the midst of a significant scoring surge as he takes on more offensive responsibility with Jayson Tatum sidelined. While his season average of 18.3 PPG is right at the 18.5 line, his recent performance is much stronger, averaging 23.8 PPG over his last five contests.
White has scored at least 19 points in four of his last five games, including explosive 33 and 31-point outings. He faces a Portland defense that ranks bottom-six in the league, giving up over 120 points per game.
With Boston entering as heavy favorites and playing at Portland's fast pace (5th in NBA), White should see plenty of volume. His ability to hit from deep and create his own shot makes him a reliable bet to clear this moderate line.
Deni AvdijaOVER 7.5 Assists Assists-121
WActual 10
Deni Avdija has evolved into the central playmaking hub for the Trail Blazers following season-ending and long-term injuries to their primary guards. Over his last five games, he has cleared this 7.5 assist line in four instances, averaging 8.4 assists per game.
His high usage rate is a direct result of Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, and Jrue Holiday being inactive, leaving the offense in his hands. Portland's high-paced style of play (5th in NBA) generates more possessions and scoring opportunities, which directly benefits Avdija's assist totals.
Even against a strong Boston defense, the sheer volume of passing opportunities Avdija receives in this depleted lineup provides a strong edge. His consistency in hitting double-digit assists recently (11 against Toronto, 9 against Indiana and Clippers) suggests he is well-adjusted to this role.
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