San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
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The pick & result
- Published pick
- San Antonio Spurs +9.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 117-102
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Oklahoma City San Antonio Record 26-4 ← 22-7 Off Rating 120.1 ← 118.1 Def Rating 103.7 ← 113.0 Net Rating +16.4 ← +5.2 Key Injuries Holmgren (Q) Sochan (OUT)
Gary's Take Don't let Oklahoma City's sparkling 14-0 home record scare you off the scent—this line is inflated by reputation and ignores the brutal reality of the Thunder's current roster. While the Thunder boast a league-best net rating, they are walking into a stylistic nightmare against the one team that has their number this season.
San Antonio has already beaten Oklahoma City twice, including a 20-point drubbing just two days ago. The reason isn't luck; it's physics. With Chet Holmgren banged up and Isaiah Hartenstein sidelined, the Thunder have absolutely zero interior presence. They are forced to play small-ball wings at center, which is suicidal against a Spurs team that crashes the offensive glass with a 26.6% offensive rebounding rate. Victor Wembanyama, even on a minutes restriction, is a cheat code against a team whose tallest defender is 6'6".
De'Aaron Fox provides the perimeter speed to match Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, neutralizing OKC's usual advantage in the backcourt. The Thunder will play with desperate energy to protect their perfect home record, but asking a team with no center to cover 9.5 points against the #2 seed in the West is asking too much. The matchup issues here are structural, not situational.
San Antonio keeps this inside the number, if not winning outright. Spurs +9.5.
Injuries noted
San Antonio Spurs: Jeremy Sochan (Out)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Ousmane Dieng (Out) — Dec 24: Dieng (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Spurs, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.; Jaylin Williams (Out) — Dec 24: Williams (heel) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Spurs, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.; Ajay Mitchell (Out) — Dec 24: Mitchell (concussion) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Spurs, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.; Nikola Topic (Out) — Oct 30: Topic has been diagnosed with testicular cancer, Thunder general manager Sam Presti announced Thursday, Justin Martinez of The Oklahoman reports.; Thomas Sorber (Out) — Sep 5: The Thunder announced Friday that Sorber has sustained a torn ACL in his right knee during an offseason workout, NBA reporter Marc Stein reports.; Chet Holmgren (Questionable); Isaiah Hartenstein (Out)
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored December 25, 2025 at 12:35 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
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Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKDE'AARON FOXPTS OVER 16.5
With Wembanyama's minutes being heavily monitored, the scoring load has to fall on someone else's shoulders, and Fox is the clear engine for this offense. This 16.5-point line feels like a significant undervaluation of his role as the primary playmaker and closer for the Spurs.
He is going to see massive usage tonight, especially in a high-profile matchup against a fast-paced Thunder team where transition points will be plentiful. Fox thrives when he can use his speed to get to the rim, and I expect him to be aggressive from the opening tip to keep San Antonio competitive.
Even against a tough OKC defense, a player of his caliber getting this much volume should clear 17 points with room to spare. He’s the veteran presence they need on the floor, and he won't shy away from the spotlight.
- GARY'S PICKVICTOR WEMBANYAMAPTS UNDER 18.5
Victor is still working his way back to full strength, and the Spurs are being incredibly protective of their young star. They have him on a strict minute restriction tonight, likely capping him between 20 and 23 minutes, which really limits his opportunities to get into a rhythm.
Asking a player to drop 19 points in such a short window is a tall order, especially when he's expected to come off the bench again. On top of that, he’s facing an Oklahoma City defense that is one of the best in the league at protecting the paint and making life miserable for opposing bigs.
Chet Holmgren and company will be draped all over him, and without his usual workload, it's hard to see him reaching this total. I expect a very measured, low-volume performance from Wemby as the team prioritizes his health.
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