Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena
Timberwolves ML+120
CONF 82%
LLostFinal 138-142
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Denver Nuggets Minnesota Timberwolves Record 21-8 ← 20-10 Off Rating 124.2 ← 117.2 Def Rating 115.0 → 110.8 Net Rating +9.2 ← +6.3 Key Injuries Gordon/Braun (OUT) Conley (OUT)
Gary's Take Christmas Day showcases are often decided by depth and star power, and right now, Denver is severely lacking the former. While the Nuggets sit at 21-8, their current roster reality is bleak. Missing Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cameron Johnson strips them of their three best wing defenders and floor spacers. They are forcing undrafted sophomore Spencer Jones into the starting lineup and asking Peyton Watson to play oversized minutes. That is a recipe for disaster against a team as physical and explosive as Minnesota.
The Timberwolves enter this matchup battle-tested, having recently dispatched the Knicks, Bucks, and Thunder—all legitimate contenders. Their defense remains elite with a 110.8 rating, significantly better than Denver's pedestrian 115.0 defensive mark. Without Gordon to body up Julius Randle and without Braun or Johnson to chase Anthony Edwards, Denver simply lacks the personnel to get stops. Edwards should feast on this depleted perimeter rotation.
While Nikola Jokic is always a threat to control a game, Minnesota has the bodies to throw at him in Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid. Conversely, Denver has no answer for Minnesota's depth. The Timberwolves have found their identity without Mike Conley, with Donte DiVincenzo steering the ship efficiently. Getting a surging 20-win team at plus money against a wounded opponent is the perfect holiday gift. I'm taking the value on the road dog.
Minnesota Timberwolves ML +120.
Injuries noted
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels (Questionable) — Dec 24: McDaniels (oblique) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Nuggets.; Joe Ingles (Out); Mike Conley (Out); Joan Beringer (Out)
Denver Nuggets: Cameron Johnson (Out) — Dec 24: Johnson (knee) is expected to miss "some time", Shams Charania of ESPN reports.; Tamar Bates (Out) — Dec 22: The Nuggets announced Monday that Bates (foot) will be re-evaluated in 12 weeks.; Christian Braun (Out) — Dec 13: Braun (ankle) was spotted doing some training off to the side during Saturday's practice, Brendan Vogt of TheDNVR.com reports.; Aaron Gordon (Out) — Dec 9: Gordon (hamstring) is not expected to return before Christmas, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.; Spencer Jones (Out); This is one of the first major primetime showcases for Denver since the blockbuster trade that sent Michael Porter Jr (Out)
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- Board stored December 25, 2025 at 12:35 AM ET.
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Props on this game
2Julius RandleOVER 6.5 Rebounds Rebounds-140
WActual 7
Julius Randle is looking like a different player lately, and tonight’s matchup against Denver is a perfect spot for him to assert himself on the glass. With Aaron Gordon sidelined, the Nuggets are missing their most physical presence in the paint, which leaves a massive void that Randle is uniquely built to exploit.
He is significantly stronger than the remaining Denver frontcourt options and should find himself in prime position to snatch up boards on both ends of the floor. This number feels way too low for a guy of his caliber who consistently crashes the glass when there is a clear physical advantage to be had.
I expect the Timberwolves to emphasize high-energy play early, and Randle will be the one leading that charge under the rim. He should clear this mark with room to spare as he takes advantage of a depleted Nuggets interior.
Nikola JokicOVER 11.5 Rebounds Rebounds-138
WActual 16
Nikola Jokic is essentially the entire Nuggets ecosystem right now, and that includes doing the heavy lifting on the glass. Denver is dealing with key injuries to secondary rebounders like Aaron Gordon, meaning there are fewer bodies to help out with rebounding duties against a massive Minnesota lineup.
Jokic is going to be parked in the paint for most of the night battling Rudy Gobert, and since he rarely leaves the floor in competitive games, the volume of opportunities will be massive. Even on nights where his scoring fluctuates, his rebounding remains his most consistent trait because he is always the smartest person on the floor regarding ball trajectory.
He knows he has to be the primary glass-cleaner for Denver to stay competitive tonight, and I see him hitting this mark comfortably before the fourth quarter even starts.
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