Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks
State Farm Arena
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Chicago Bulls +5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 152-150
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Atlanta Hawks Chicago Bulls Record 15-14 ← 12-15 Off Rating 112.7 ← 112.2 Def Rating 114.6 ← 116.4 Net Rating -2.0 ← -4.2 Key Injuries Dante, Porzingis (OUT) Essengue (OUT)
Gary's Take This matchup is all about tempo and possessions. Both Atlanta and Chicago want to play fast and score in the 110s and 120s, and with equal rest on both sides, the question becomes which roster is better built to survive that kind of track meet. On the surface the Hawks have the cleaner profile – slightly better offensive and defensive efficiency and a small net rating edge – but the way these teams get to their numbers tilts this spread toward the Bulls.
Chicago quietly owns two of the most important edges in a high-possession game: they take much better care of the ball and they create more second chances. The Bulls are turning it over far less often than Atlanta, and that gap in miscues shows up as several extra shots per night. Add in Chicago’s stronger offensive rebounding rate, with Nikola Vucevic cleaning the glass and Jalen Smith contributing real size and activity, and the Bulls can manufacture additional possessions even if the shooting battle is a wash.
Atlanta’s efficiency is driven by shot-making and free throws. Jalen Johnson is putting up star-level numbers across the board with scoring, rebounding, and playmaking, while shooters like Luke Kennard and Keaton Wallace stretch the floor from deep. But with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined, the Hawks lose a high-usage stretch big who spaces the floor and helps on the glass and at the rim. That puts more pressure on Johnson to carry the frontcourt load and makes it easier for Chicago to focus their defense. On the other side, Ayo Dosunmu’s shooting and playmaking, plus Kevin Huerter’s perimeter scoring, give the Bulls enough firepower to keep pace.
You’ve got two teams that both perform well in close games, so if this stays tight late – and the possession math suggests it does – those five points suddenly look very large. Atlanta’s slight efficiency edge is real, but Chicago’s advantage in turnovers and offensive rebounding, combined with a healthier rotation, is exactly the kind of angle that matters in a fast, high-total game.
The main way this goes wrong is if Atlanta’s shooters get blistering hot from deep and the Bulls lose their turnover edge, letting the Hawks turn this into a front-running blowout. But with the structural possession advantages on Chicago’s side and Atlanta missing Porzingis, I’m taking the points. Give me Chicago Bulls +5 -110 on the spread.
Injuries noted
Chicago Bulls: Jalen Smith (Day-To-Day) — Dec 20: Smith is listed as probable for Sunday's game against the Hawks due to a left quadriceps contusion.; Ayo Dosunmu (Day-To-Day) — Dec 20: Dosunmu (thumb) is probable for Sunday's game in Atlanta.; Coby White (Day-To-Day) — Dec 20: White is questionable for Sunday's game against the Hawks with left ankle soreness.; Noa Essengue (Out) — Dec 3: Essengue will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, K.C. Johnson of Chicago Sports Network reports.
Atlanta Hawks: N'Faly Dante (Out) — Dec 20: The Hawks assigned Dante (concussion) to the G League's College Park Skyhawks on Tuesday.; Eli John Ndiaye (Questionable) — Dec 19: Ndiaye (coach's decision) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Thunder.; Kristaps Porzingis (Out) — Dec 14: Porzingis will miss at least the next two weeks of action as he undergoes further testing for the illness he's dealing with, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored December 21, 2025 at 9:08 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKTRAE YOUNGPOINTS OVER 17.5
Line 17.5 pts | Season Avg: ~24.0 PPG (+6.5 cushion) | Recent Form: L5 avg ~22–23 (likely 4/5 over this line)
This number is materially discounted versus Trae Young’s typical scoring output, giving a large cushion relative to his established role as a primary scorer and high-usage ball-handler. Against a Bulls defense that can struggle with point-of-attack containment, his combination of volume threes and free-throw generation makes 18+ a very reachable target in normal minutes.
If this is a minutes-managed spot (e.g., lingering health, blowout, or an unusual playmaking-heavy approach where he looks to facilitate more than score), he could hover in the mid-teens despite efficient shooting and miss the over.
CONFIDENCE
70% | Edge: +6.5 | Form: Steady
- GARY'S PICKNIKOLA VUCEVICPOINTS OVER 15.5
Line 15.5 pts | Season Avg: 16.1 PPG (+0.6 cushion) | Recent Form: L5 avg 15.6 (2/5 over line)
Vucevic’s role and minutes are stable (around 30 MPG), and his recent "hot" form tag is backed by a 24-point outing in his last game, suggesting he’s being used assertively on offense. The line is set slightly below both his season average and his L5 average, giving a modest statistical edge in a matchup where Chicago should lean on his inside scoring and pick-and-pop game.
His medium consistency and a recent 2/5 hit rate on this number highlight some volatility; if the Bulls’ guards dominate usage or if he gets into foul trouble or sees a minutes dip, he could land in the 9–13 point range and fall short.
CONFIDENCE
68% | Edge: +0.6 | Form: Steady-to-Hot
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