Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks

TALE OF THE TAPE

Dallas Mavericks Brooklyn Nets Record 9-16 ← 6-17 Off Rating 110.0 → 112.2 Def Rating 110.9 ← 120.9 Net Rating -0.9 ← -8.7 Key Injuries Gafford, Lively, Cam Thomas, Exum, Irving Highsmith

Gary's Take I love this spot for Brooklyn catching a big number on the road. Dallas owns the clear defensive and overall efficiency edge, but they’re missing four rotation pieces, including both centers and Kyrie Irving, which leaves their interior thin and their shot creation heavily concentrated on Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, and Klay Thompson.

Everyone’s focused on how bad Brooklyn’s defense has been, but their offense is actually stronger than Dallas’ on the season, with better shooting efficiency, more threes, and a big edge on the offensive glass behind Nicolas Claxton, Day’Ron Sharpe, and Michael Porter Jr. That rebounding advantage becomes even more important against a Mavericks team down Gafford and Lively. In an up-tempo game driven by Dallas’ faster pace, those extra Nets possessions and perimeter looks should be enough to keep this inside two or three possessions most of the night.

Dallas probably escapes with the win, but the combination of their thin frontcourt and Brooklyn’s shooting and offensive rebounding screams value on the underdog. Lock it in: Brooklyn Nets +8.5.