San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans

TALE OF THE TAPE

New Orleans Pelicans San Antonio Spurs Record 3-21 → 15-7 Off Rating 105.2 → 117.0 Def Rating 119.5 → 114.7 Net Rating -14.3 → 2.3 Key Injuries Poole, Jones, Williamson McLaughlin, Castle, Wembanyama

Gary's Take I love this spot for San Antonio because the overall quality gap here is massive and New Orleans is missing its primary creators. The Spurs own a strong edge in efficiency (roughly a +16 net rating swing and a big offensive rating advantage) while the Pelicans sit near the bottom of the league with a terrible differential (3-21 record). Both teams play fast, but when you’re that far apart in per-possession output (over a 10-point offensive rating gap), pace actually helps the better side pull away.

With Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole sidelined, New Orleans loses over 39 points of scoring punch (both in the high teens to low 20s per game) and its main downhill threats, leaving Saddiq Bey and Trey Murphy III to carry an offense that already shoots poorly overall (big disadvantage in effective field goal percentage). San Antonio, even without Victor Wembanyama, still runs out a balanced perimeter trio in Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, and Julian Champagnie (all in double figures with strong three-point percentages around 37–43%), and they already take and make more threes at a better clip than New Orleans. Turnovers and offensive boards are roughly even, so this comes down to shot quality and depth – both clearly favor the Spurs.

Here’s how I see this playing out: Vassell and Barnes stretch the floor early, San Antonio’s efficient offense keeps generating clean looks from three and at the rim, and New Orleans has too many empty trips relying on secondary guys to create. Over 100-plus possessions at this pace, that efficiency gap snowballs into a double-digit margin. Only way this misses is if the Spurs go ice-cold from deep while the Pelicans live at the free throw line and suddenly punch above their weight. Lock this in: San Antonio Spurs -9.5 -110.