New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets ML-162
CONF 68%
WCashedFinal 101-119
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Brooklyn Nets New Orleans Pelicans Record 5-17 ← 3-20 Off Rating 111.0 ← 105.2 Def Rating 121.8 119.5 ← Net Rating -10.9 ← -14.3 Key Injuries Cam Thomas, Haywood Herbert Jones, Jordan Poole, Highsmith, Herbert Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray Jones
Gary's Take Let me tell you why I’m confident here. Brooklyn owns the clear efficiency edge (about +6 in offensive rating and roughly +5 percentage points in shooting efficiency), and that shows when Michael Porter Jr. and Nicolas Claxton carry the load (about 38.8 points and 15.0 rebounds per game combined). New Orleans already sat near the bottom offensively even when healthy (offensive rating just over 105), and now they’re missing Zion Williamson, Jordan Poole, and Herbert Jones, who together account for almost 50 points per night (22.1 + 17.3 + 9.5 ≈ 48.9 ppg).
With Cam Thomas sidelined for Brooklyn (21.4 ppg gone from the lineup), the Nets still have more functional scoring depth: Porter Jr. and Claxton up top, plus Day’Ron Sharpe and Jalen Wilson chipping in as secondary pieces (around 12 points and nearly 7 boards combined). New Orleans is forced to lean heavily on Trey Murphy III and Saddiq Bey (20.4 and 14.0 ppg) against a defense that, while bad overall, doesn’t have to worry about Zion’s rim pressure anymore. Over 48 minutes, the net rating and tempo gaps both tilt toward Brooklyn (about +3.4 in net rating and roughly 4 fewer possessions per game), which favors the more efficient home side in a slower game script.
If this somehow stays tight, New Orleans does have more late-game reps (six clutch games vs one, with a 2-4 record), but that’s hardly a strength. The Pelicans’ only real trump card is their better three-point accuracy (about +4 percentage points from deep), and that’s a volatility angle, not a foundation. Lock this in: I’m riding Brooklyn Nets ML -162 at home. The only way this misses is if the Pelicans’ shooters catch absolute fire from three and Brooklyn’s effort level never shows up for the full 48.
Injuries noted
New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones (Out) — Dec 5: Jones has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Nets.; Yves Missi (Day-To-Day) — Dec 5: Missi (foot/ankle) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Nets.; Jordan Poole (Out) — Dec 5: Poole (quad) won't play Saturday versus Brooklyn.; Zion Williamson (Out) — Dec 2: Williamson (adductor) will be re-evaluated in three weeks, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.; Dejounte Murray (Out) — Sep 25: ESPN's Shams Charania reported Wednesday that Murray (Achilles) could return right after New Years, according to Pelicans Film Room.
Brooklyn Nets: Noah Clowney (Day-To-Day) — Dec 5: Clowney (back) is probable for Saturday's game against the Pelicans, Brian Lewis of the New York Post reports.; Cam Thomas (Out) — Nov 7: Thomas has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and he will be re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks, Marc J. Spears of ESPN.com reports.; Haywood Highsmith (Out) — Oct 19: Highsmith (knee) experienced swelling during rehab and will re-evaluated in eight weeks, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.; Herbert JonesFStatusOut Jones (Out)
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