Brewers at Rays
O/U 7.5 · RL Rays -1.5 · Tropicana Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Rays ML -120
- Published odds
- -120
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 10-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 37 moves| Market | Opened Sun 4:45 AM | Close Mon 7:51 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Brewers -1.5 (+174) | Brewers -1.5 (+174) | Holds |
| TOTAL | 7 (-106) | 7 (-109) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Rays -120 | Rays -114 | +6 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSun 4:45 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+174) | 7 (-106) | Rays -120 · Brewers +100 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+175) | 7 (-106) | Rays -120 · Brewers +100 |
| Sun 7:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+178) | 7 (-106) | Rays -120 · Brewers +100 |
| Sun 8:01 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+177) | 7 (-106) | Rays -120 · Brewers +100 |
| Sun 9:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+178) | 7 (-106) | Rays -120 · Brewers +100 |
| Sun 10:01 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+175) | 7 (-109) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Sun 12:01 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+178) | 7 (-112) | Rays -120 · Brewers +100 |
| Sun 1:31 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+176) | 7 (-112) | Rays -120 · Brewers +100 |
| Sun 2:31 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+176) | 7 (-112) | Rays -120 · Brewers -101 |
| Sun 5:31 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+174) | 7 (-112) | Rays -120 · Brewers -101 |
| Sun 6:31 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Sun 9:31 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-113) | Rays -120 · Brewers -101 |
| Sun 11:01 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+173) | 7 (-113) | Rays -120 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 8:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-113) | Rays -120 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 9:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+169) | 7 (-112) | Rays -119 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 9:31 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-113) | Rays -120 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 10:01 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+173) | 7 (-113) | Rays -120 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 10:31 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+173) | 7 (-113) | Rays -119 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 11:01 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+174) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 11:32 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 12:02 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+169) | 7 (-117) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 12:32 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+170) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 2:03 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 2:33 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+169) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 3:03 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+168) | 7 (-115) | Rays -115 · Brewers -104 |
| Mon 3:33 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 4:03 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+173) | 7 (-115) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 4:31 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+170) | 7 (-120) | Rays -119 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 5:00 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-120) | Rays -119 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 5:40 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-120) | Rays -119 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 6:31 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-120) | Rays -119 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 6:41 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-120) | Rays -119 · Brewers -101 |
| Mon 6:51 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-116) | Rays -118 · Brewers -102 |
| Mon 7:01 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-116) | Rays -116 · Brewers -104 |
| Mon 7:11 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+173) | 7 (-116) | Rays -114 · Brewers +102 |
| Mon 7:21 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+172) | 7 (-116) | Rays -114 · Brewers +102 |
| Mon 7:41 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+176) | 7 (-112) | Rays -114 · Brewers +102 |
| CLOSEMon 7:51 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+174) | 7 (-109) | Rays -114 · Brewers +102 |
The read
The World Series moves to Tropicana Field, and the Rays come home down 2-0 to a Brewers team that is 9-1 this postseason. Both losses were one-run games, 3-2 and 5-4, so this hasn't been a beatdown, and tonight the setup favors Tampa Bay.
Start with the bullpens. Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe have pitched in both games of this series, and Romero, Hall and May all worked Saturday too. Pat Murphy put it plainly: "They're not fresh, that's for sure." Bryan Baker, meanwhile, has 5 saves and 0 runs in 7.0 postseason innings and hasn't thrown since Oct 19, and Griffin Jax has 10 full days off. With Game 4 tomorrow, Murphy can't empty the tank.
Then there's the lineup Kevin Cash built. Robert Gasser has been sharp in October, with five scoreless innings in Los Angeles and one run over four in San Diego, but those starts took only 72 and 56 pitches. Lefties hit .163 against Gasser this season; righties hit .257 with a .765 OPS. Cash sat Hicks, Palacios and Aranda and is running out six right-handed bats. If Gasser goes four or five again, Milwaukee's middle innings fall to tired arms, Brandon Woodruff (113 full days since a start), Antonio Senzatela or Kyle Harrison. That's the Rays' window.
Freddy Peralta comes in on six days' rest with Cash hoping for seven innings and 105 pitches, and Peralta has allowed one run or fewer in each of his three postseason starts. A lead handed from Peralta to a rested Baker is the Rays' best path back into this series.
The risk is real. The Rays have a .640 OPS this postseason, and Williamson, Vilade and Fortes have barely hit. The Brewers start six lefties against a pitcher who allowed a .757 OPS and 17 HR to left-handed hitters, and William Contreras is 15 for 38 with 3 HR this postseason. If those bats get to Peralta early, Milwaukee won't need its bullpen.
But the story of this series has been Rays mistakes more than Brewers dominance. At home, with the fresher back end, this is the night the Rays answer.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Freddy Peralta: 1.13 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.13Freddy Peralta has allowed barely a run per nine over his last 3 starts, with a 1.13 WHIP against 1.33 for the season. He has only 12 strikeouts in 16 innings, so some of that low run total came from balls finding gloves. Three starts against a 4.42 season ERA is a small sample, and some of that ERA gap should close. The season number is still how most lines price him, so the recent form is the part to weigh against it.
Robert Gasser: 1.20 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.20Robert Gasser has allowed 2 earned runs in 15 innings over his last 3 starts, with 15 strikeouts. A strikeout per inning means he is getting outs on his own, so this run has more behind it than luck. His 3.87 season ERA is still the larger body of work, and three starts is a small sample. His strikeout props are the steadier angle than expecting another near-scoreless night.
HEAT CHECK
Jonny DeLuca: .857 OPS in Last 15 Days
.857Jonny DeLuca has an .857 OPS over the last 15 days, above his .728 for the season, with more power than usual. That is 42 at-bats, a short run, so expect him to settle back toward the season line. He has 11 home runs this year, enough pop to make any hit dangerous. On a 0.5 total bases line, the question is simply whether he gets a hit, and his season form is the better guide.
COOLING OFF
Yandy Diaz: .450 OPS in Last 15 Days
.450Yandy Diaz has a .450 OPS over the last 15 days, well under his .805 for the season. That is 40 at-bats, about two weeks of quiet games, against a full season that says he is a good hitter. Slumps this size usually drift back toward the season line. For his props tonight, the .805 is the better guide than the cold stretch.
Garrett Mitchell: .560 OPS in Last 15 Days
.560Garrett Mitchell has a .560 OPS over the last 15 days, down from .771 for the season. That is 36 at-bats, which is a few quiet games more than a change in the hitter. Expect him to move back toward his season line. For props tonight, the .771 is the better starting point.
BALLPARK
Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 1.69 at Tropicana Field (4 games there)
1.69Freddy Peralta has a 1.69 ERA in 4 games at Tropicana Field, with hitters batting .116 against him there. Everywhere else he sits at 4.81 over 147.2 innings, and that bigger sample is the more reliable one. A .116 average over 21.1 innings has plenty of luck in it. Give the ballpark a small nudge his way and price him mostly off the larger number.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Brewers are 2-1 vs Rays this season
2-1Milwaukee has won two of three against Tampa Bay this season, the latest an 8-2 win. Three games is a tiny sample, and nothing on the sheet says who pitched them or where they were played. Tonight brings different starters in Tampa. Give the series record little weight and price the game on the starters and current form.
STREAK
MIL have won 6 straight
W6Milwaukee has won six straight, but by a combined 12 runs, about two a game, so most of these wins were close. Teams that stack tight wins usually cool off, and six games is a short window. The run comes into a road game at Tampa Bay. Expect a game decided late, where the bullpens matter more than the streak itself.
TEAM RECORD
Rays 8-0 in Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts
8-0His team has won all of Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts, and he pitches tonight. A team record mixes in run support and bullpen work, so it says as much about the lineup behind him as about his own arm. Eight games is a short run, and perfect streaks rarely stay perfect. Use it as a sign the club plays well behind him and set the price off how he is pitching.
Brewers 7-1 in Robert Gasser's last 8 starts
7-1Milwaukee is 7-1 in Robert Gasser's last 8 starts and has won his last 4 in a row. That lines up with a starter keeping games close enough for the offense and bullpen to finish. Eight starts is a small window, and a 7-1 pace is hard to keep up. In this matchup it supports Milwaukee's side early in the game, while the full-game result still runs through the bullpen.
REGRESSION
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games (.641 win rate)
25-14Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (39 completed games). They are 73-50 in their other 123 completed games.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBEN WILLIAMSONH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Ben Williamson Under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -144. Cash has him batting fifth tonight against Robert Gasser, a spot he has rarely held. Most of his season came from seventh and sixth. The bat hasn't earned the promotion lately. He is 1 for 14 over the last 15 days and 0 for 4 in this series, and he managed one hit in 14 September at-bats. Against left-handed pitching this season he hit .224 with a .585 OPS and one home run in 133 plate appearances. His Statcast expected numbers, a .246 xBA and a .325 xSLG, sit right on top of his actual line, so there is no hidden bad luck waiting to turn.
Gasser comes in sharp. He allowed two earned runs across his final three regular season starts and threw five scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium on October 14. Tropicana Field suppresses offense, and both games in this series were decided by one run. To get over, Williamson needs two counting events: a hit and a run, an RBI single, or a multi-hit night. His season average for hits, runs and RBIs already sits below this line, and his recent form sits well below that.
The case against starts with the lineup slot. Hitting behind Díaz, Simpson and Caminero puts him at the plate with men on more often, and one RBI single takes the over. Gasser has also been much more hittable by right-handed batters this season, a .765 OPS against compared with .552 for lefties, and he gets six righties tonight. If Gasser exits early, Williamson sees Milwaukee relievers that Pat Murphy himself called not fresh. I still trust the bat over the slot at this price.
- GARY'S PICKFREDDY PERALTAPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5
Freddy Peralta Over 14.5 outs at -145. The number asks for five full innings, and Peralta has been living past it. His last eight starts, newest first, went 16, 18, 14, 16, 17, 15, 18 and 18 outs. The one short outing was a 66-pitch night against the Yankees in the ALDS. Even his worst game against Milwaukee this year, seven runs allowed in July while still with the Mets, lasted 16 outs.
The setup tonight supports length. Kevin Cash said he hopes to get seven innings and 105 pitches from him. Peralta comes in on six days of rest after ALCS Game 6, his postseason fastball has averaged 96.9 mph against 94.3 in the regular season, and he has a 1.69 ERA at Tropicana Field. Kevin Kelly and Steven Matz both worked both games in Milwaukee, and with Game 4 tomorrow, Cash has every reason to let his ALCS MVP carry the middle innings rather than spread the load across the pen again.
The strongest argument against is Milwaukee's approach. The Brewers foul pitches off, extend counts and push starters out early. That's exactly how they ran Drew Rasmussen at 89 pitches in 3 2/3 innings on Saturday. Peralta faces six left-handed bats, and lefties posted a .757 OPS with 17 home runs against him this season, though most of that sample came with the Mets. He has also walked three batters in several recent starts, which drives the count up. Down 0-2, Cash could go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. I'll lay the price on Peralta's recent length and the stated plan for him.
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