Diamondbacks at Rockies
O/U 10.5 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5 · Coors Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Diamondbacks ML -194
- Published odds
- -194
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 12-8
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 9 moves| Market | Opened Sep 24 5:00 AM | Close Sep 24 2:20 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-118) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-118) | Holds |
| TOTAL | 10 (-125) | 10.5 (-104) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Diamondbacks -190 | Diamondbacks -186 | +4 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 24 5:00 AM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-118) | 10 (-125) | Diamondbacks -190 · Rockies +155 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-122) | 10.5 (-105) | Diamondbacks -200 · Rockies +163 |
| Sep 24 10:01 AM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-122) | 10 (-124) | Diamondbacks -200 · Rockies +163 |
| Sep 24 11:51 AM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-120) | 10 (-125) | Diamondbacks -186 · Rockies +155 |
| Sep 24 12:41 PM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-124) | 10.5 (-104) | Diamondbacks -195 · Rockies +160 |
| Sep 24 1:03 PM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-125) | 10.5 (-105) | Diamondbacks -200 · Rockies +163 |
| Sep 24 1:40 PM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-121) | 10.5 (-108) | Diamondbacks -195 · Rockies +160 |
| Sep 24 2:05 PM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-117) | 10.5 (-112) | Diamondbacks -186 · Rockies +155 |
| Sep 24 2:05 PM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-117) | 10.5 (-112) | Diamondbacks -186 · Rockies +155 |
| CLOSESep 24 2:20 PM | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-118) | 10.5 (-104) | Diamondbacks -186 · Rockies +155 |
The read
Game 3 at Coors on a Thursday afternoon: Arizona, three games out with four to play, needs a sweep of a Colorado club already locked into its fourth straight 100-loss season. Eduardo Rodriguez takes the ball against Tanner Gordon with the wind blowing in from center.
My bet is on Gordon at Coors, not on Rodriguez's ERA. Gordon has an 8.20 ERA at home against 3.25 on the road. Gordon's most-used pitch is the four-seamer, which has allowed a .349 average and a .364 xwOBA. Arizona's best hitter, Gabriel Moreno, has a .420 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .961 OPS in day games. Gordon has also lasted 3.0, 4.0 and 4.2 innings in the last three starts, which leaves the middle innings to a Colorado bullpen that opponents are hitting .278/.378/.492 against in September. Zach Agnos (7.53 ERA over the last 30 days) and Jaden Hill (8.00) are likely among the arms covering those innings. On the other side, Rodriguez's best pitch is the changeup, which draws a 47.4% chase rate and allows a .264 xwOBA. Colorado has chased 42.8% of the time over its last three games and scored 3.0 runs a game over its last five.
The best argument against Arizona is real. Rodriguez's 2.89 ERA sits on a 4.29 xERA and a 3.87 FIP, so the market is overpaying for a fragile number. And all four of Arizona's top late-inning relievers (Brandyn Garcia, Jonathan Loáisiga, Justin Martinez, Juan Morillo) pitched yesterday, while Colorado's back end is rested. That is exactly why I'm not laying the run line: a tight game in the 8th could go to Colorado's rested closers against Arizona's second tier. But I'm betting who wins, not the margin, and Arizona's rested arms still hold up: Taylor Clarke has a 2.71 season ERA, and Dennis Santana hasn't allowed an earned run in 8 innings over the last 30 days. They grade out better than the Colorado middle relievers who will pitch the most innings in this game. Arizona ML.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Eduardo Rodriguez: 5.94 ERA over his last 3 starts
5.94Rodriguez has a 5.94 ERA over his last 16.2 innings, and his WHIP has gone from 1.23 on the season to 1.38 in that stretch. More runners on base gives hitters more chances to score. That is only 3 starts against a 2.89 season ERA with far more innings behind it. At Coors, where runs come easy, the shakier recent version is the one to plan around.
HEAT CHECK
Nolan Arenado: 1.397 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.397Arenado has a 1.397 OPS over 43 AB in the last 15 days, far above his .789 season mark. That is about two weeks of swings, so some pullback toward .789 is the likely direction. His 28 home runs say the power is real. At home against Arizona with a 1.5 total-bases line, the choice is whether to price him off the hot stretch or the season number, and the season number has far more at-bats behind it.
BALLPARK
Tanner Gordon owns a 8.20 ERA at Coors Field and 3.25 everywhere else
8.20Hitters bat .342 off Gordon at Coors Field, and his ERA there is 8.20 against 3.25 everywhere else. The Coors number covers 56.0 innings in 12 games, enough to call it a pattern. Nothing on the sheet suggests that split closes tonight. Against Arizona, the Coors version of Gordon is the one to price, which puts the D-backs' bats in a good spot.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Diamondbacks are 8-4 vs Rockies this season
8-4Arizona is 8-4 against Colorado and won the last meeting 5-3, so the edge has held late in the series. Twelve games is a fair sample, though the sheet doesn't show the pitchers or how the wins split between parks. Tonight is at Coors, and Gordon's rough numbers there matter more than the series count.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKTANNER GORDONPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5
The number is 5.5 hits for Tanner Gordon at -133, and his recent starts have mostly cleared it. His last eight starts went 10, 10, 8, 3, 6, 9, 8, 6, so seven of eight cleared the line, and he averages 7.4 hits per start across 11 starts this season. The contact he allows explains it. Hitters have a 42.4% hard-hit rate and a 10.5% barrel rate against him, and both sides of the plate hit him hard: .315 from lefties and .337 from righties. His four-seamer is 41% of his mix and has allowed a .349 average. Coors is where it gets worst. He has an 8.20 ERA over 56 innings at home against 3.25 everywhere else. His last start here was 10 hits in 3 innings against San Diego.
The case against is volume. He has recorded 9, 12 and 14 outs in his last three starts, so a quick hook could stop him short of six hits. Arizona's lineup is also weak against righties, hitting .232 with a .687 OPS, and an 8 mph wind blowing in from center takes a little off the park. The short outings have not saved him, though. He gave up 10 hits in 9 outs last time and 10 in 12 the start before that. Colorado is out of the race and treating his starts as an audition, so he should get the usual 80 to 90 pitches. At that workload against this contact profile, six hits is the expected outcome, not a stretch.
- GARY'S PICKEDUARDO RODRIGUEZPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
Eduardo Rodriguez over 1.5 walks at -106 is close to a coin flip on price, and his profile says two walks is his normal game. He has walked 62 batters in 31 starts, exactly 2.0 per start. His last eight starts ran 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 0, 2, so six of eight cashed this over. The Yankees walked four times against him last time out, and he has admitted his command is off early: his first-inning ERA is 7.84 over 31 innings. Colorado's order has some patience in the middle. TJ Rumfield has 71 walks in 538 at-bats, Kyle Karros has 53 in 395, and Connor Norby has 39 in 321. That is three hitters in the top six who will take four balls. Coors can also flatten breaking balls, and his curveball already allows a .357 xwOBA.
The case against starts with Torey Lovullo, who pulled Merrill Kelly at 78 pitches yesterday and says he won't blink with his bullpen. A short outing means fewer batters faced. The bottom of this Colorado lineup rarely walks, with Jordan Beck, Brett Sullivan and Ezequiel Tovar all carrying on-base marks under .280, and the nine as a group walks 8 times per 100 plate appearances. His changeup also draws a 47.4% chase rate, which keeps counts short. Still, Rodriguez has thrown 96 to 115 pitches in each of his last eight starts, and even at 5.1 innings he has faced enough hitters to get to two walks. At -106 I'll take his season norm.
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