Cardinals at Pirates
O/U 6.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Pirates ML -162
- Published odds
- -162
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 1-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 9 moves| Market | Opened Sep 24 5:00 AM | Close Sep 24 12:28 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | Holds |
| TOTAL | 7 (-102) | 7 (+100) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Pirates -160 | Pirates -160 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 24 5:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (-102) | Pirates -160 · Cardinals +135 |
| Sep 24 6:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+145) | 7 (+105) | Pirates -160 · Cardinals +135 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (+100) | Pirates -165 · Cardinals +135 |
| Sep 24 11:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (+100) | Pirates -165 · Cardinals +140 |
| Sep 24 11:40 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (-105) | Pirates -160 · Cardinals +135 |
| Sep 24 12:01 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (-102) | Pirates -165 · Cardinals +140 |
| Sep 24 12:05 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (-102) | Pirates -165 · Cardinals +135 |
| Sep 24 12:20 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (-102) | Pirates -165 · Cardinals +140 |
| Sep 24 12:21 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (+100) | Pirates -165 · Cardinals +135 |
| CLOSESep 24 12:28 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+140) | 7 (+100) | Pirates -160 · Cardinals +135 |
The read
It's the rubber game at PNC Park on a cool Thursday afternoon, with the wind blowing in from center and the series tied at a game apiece. Paul Skenes takes the ball in his final start of the season. On ERA this looks even: Kyle Leahy at 3.65, Skenes at 3.91. What carries my pick is how the outs get divided. Leahy has gone three innings or fewer in four of his last five starts. On Sep 12 he was pulled after 38 scoreless pitches, which looks like a planned limit rather than a performance call. So the Cardinals likely need relievers to cover most of this game, from a pen that ranks 23rd in reliever ERA. If the recent pattern holds, the bulk arm is Cooper Hjerpe, who has 9.0 MLB innings and a 6.00 ERA. Skenes brings a 3.27 xERA and has walked one batter in each of his last three starts. Leahy's ERA is 1.23 runs better than his xERA, so anyone treating these starters as equals is paying for a fragile number.
The early innings also favor Pittsburgh. Left-handed hitters have an .850 OPS against Leahy, compared with .618 for righties. Six Pirates bat left against him, including Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn at the top, and Lowe has 5 home runs in his last 10 games. The Cardinals used this same setup against Pittsburgh on Aug 29. Leahy went three innings, Brycen Mautz gave up 4 earned runs in 3 innings behind him, and the Pirates won 6-2. Late in the game, Mason Montgomery carries a 2.80 ERA and a reported 24 straight scoreless appearances, and he hasn't pitched since Sep 20. Riley O'Brien has a 4.76 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over his last 30 days. Neither club has announced bullpen availability, so treat that as a read on quality, not a guarantee.
The best argument against me is real. Skenes is not missing bats the way he used to, at 6.5 K/9 over his last five starts. Pittsburgh is also sitting Bryan Reynolds (.789 OPS) and Rafael Flores Jr. (.895 OPS), with Henry Davis (.169) catching, which thins out the bottom of the order. Several Pirates bats are running ahead of their expected numbers, and a wind blowing in keeps scoring low, so one swing can flip it. That's exactly why I'm on the moneyline and not the run line. Even with a thinner lineup, the Pirates spend most of this game hitting against the weakest part of the Cardinals' staff. The Cardinals spend most of it facing Skenes. At about 59% with the vig removed, I'll pay that price.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
BATTER VS ARM
Alec Burleson vs Paul Skenes: .353
.353Burleson has 6 hits in 17 at-bats against Skenes with an .801 OPS, so some of those hits went for extra bases. Seventeen at-bats is small, and a couple of hits either way changes the picture. He comes in at a .750 OPS over the last 15 days, so his current form fits the history. In Pittsburgh, he is a Cardinals bat who has squared up Skenes before, and .353 is unlikely to carry over.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Paul Skenes (RHP)
.927Burleson has a .927 OPS against righties over 401 at-bats and .549 against lefties, so the split is real. Skenes is a right-hander, which puts Burleson on his good side in the 3rd spot. Skenes can shut down any split, so this is Burleson's best setup against a tough arm, and props on him still need a fair price.
Ryan O'Hearn (bats L) hits 4th against Kyle Leahy (RHP)
.855O'Hearn has an .855 OPS against right-handers over 268 at-bats and .585 against lefties over 122, so both sides of the split rest on solid samples. Leahy throws right-handed, so O'Hearn hits cleanup on his strong side. His early at-bats carry most of the edge, since Pittsburgh can turn to lefty relievers once Leahy leaves.
COOLING OFF
Jordan Walker: .330 OPS in Last 15 Days
.330Walker has a .330 OPS over just 37 AB in the last 15 days against .802 for the season, a 0.472 drop and the biggest in this group. It also comes from the smallest sample, and 37 at-bats can swing hard. Expect a drift back toward his season level. In Cardinals at Pittsburgh, check whether his lines have been marked down on the slump alone.
Thomas Saggese: .381 OPS in L15, draws RHP Paul Skenes
.381Saggese's slump covers 39 AB and sits 0.294 below his .675 season OPS. Right-handers like Skenes are his weaker side, with a .596 OPS across 107 AB. The slump, the soft split and a top righty all point the same way, so a quiet night at the plate is a reasonable expectation.
FIRST INNING
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10PIT scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Paul Skenes: 4.40 ERA, .211 opponent AVG across 30.2 IP, 7 HR; Kyle Leahy: 3.41 ERA, .190 opponent AVG across 29.0 IP, 2 HR.
RUNNING GAME
Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 4%
4% CSPittsburgh has 129 steals, and Herrera has thrown out 2 of 45 base stealers, a real sample. A Pirate on first can usually take second at little risk, so a single quickly becomes a runner in scoring position. When sizing up this game, give Pittsburgh's walks and singles extra value, since the Pirates can score without the long ball.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 11 mph at PNC Park tonight
IN 11At 61 degrees with the wind in from center, fly balls lose carry, so balls headed for the warning track are more likely to die short. Fly-ball hitters on both sides pay the most, while hitters who keep it on the ground or line it into the gaps lose less. The total of 7 is already low, so the market has priced in some of it. Expect a game decided by singles and pitching, where one crooked inning can swing it.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals are 7-5 vs Pirates this season
7-5St. Louis is 7-5 against Pittsburgh and won the last meeting 5-1. Across 12 games, 7-5 is close to even, so the series gives little reason to back either side tonight in Pittsburgh. Tonight's pitching matchup is the better place to start.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKPAUL SKENESPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
Paul Skenes over 1.5 earned runs at +113 needs two earned runs charged to him. The price implies about 47%. This season he has allowed two or more in 18 of his 31 starts, including 5 of his last 8. This year hasn't looked like his first two. He has a 3.91 ERA overall and a 4.70 ERA in September. He's also given up 4 home runs over his last two starts, all of them to left-handed hitters, and lefties have homered off him 12 times this year compared with 7 for righties.
St. Louis has four left-handed bats in the lineup, plus the switch-hitting Leo Bernal. The most dangerous is Alec Burleson, who has a .927 OPS against right-handed pitching and 8 hits in 20 career at bats against Skenes. Skenes has thrown between 81 and 95 pitches in each of his last six starts, so he should go five or six innings. That gives the Cardinals time to string together two runs. Any runner he leaves on base for the bullpen also counts against him if they score.
Here's what could sink it. This Cardinals lineup is cold. Jordan Walker is 4 for 37 over the last 15 days, Bryan Torres is 2 for 23 and Thomas Saggese is 6 for 39. As a team they have a .688 OPS against right-handers, and Jared Jones held them to one hit in this park two days ago. The wind is blowing in from center at 11 mph on a 61 degree afternoon in a park that already favors pitchers. Skenes can still dominate too: he threw 5.1 scoreless innings against the Angels on Sep 6 and 6.0 scoreless at San Diego in August. I took Pittsburgh on the moneyline and still like that pick, and a 4 to 2 Pirates win would cash both. At plus money on a pitcher who has gone over this number in more than half his starts this year, I'll take the over.
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