Angels at Mariners
O/U 6.5 · RL Mariners -1.5 · T-Mobile Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Mariners ML -196
- Published odds
- -196
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 6-4
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 14 moves| Market | Opened Sep 24 5:00 AM | Close Sep 24 9:25 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Mariners -1.5 (+113) | Mariners -1.5 (+110) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-120) | 7 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Mariners -199 | Mariners -198 | +1 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 24 5:00 AM | Mariners -1.5 (+113) | 7 (-120) | Mariners -199 · Angels +163 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Mariners -1.5 (+110) | 7 (-119) | Mariners -205 · Angels +168 |
| Sep 24 10:01 AM | Mariners -1.5 (+108) | 7 (-102) | Mariners -216 · Angels +176 |
| Sep 24 10:34 AM | Mariners -1.5 (+108) | 7 (-102) | Mariners -216 · Angels +176 |
| Sep 24 11:00 AM | Mariners -1.5 (+105) | 7 (-102) | Mariners -218 · Angels +177 |
| Sep 24 11:40 AM | Mariners -1.5 (+105) | 7 (+101) | Mariners -220 · Angels +179 |
| Sep 24 11:51 AM | Mariners -1.5 (+105) | 7 (-104) | Mariners -220 · Angels +179 |
| Sep 24 12:05 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+105) | 7 (-108) | Mariners -220 · Angels +179 |
| Sep 24 12:41 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+101) | 7 (-108) | Mariners -230 · Angels +187 |
| Sep 24 2:05 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+100) | 7 (-108) | Mariners -231 · Angels +187 |
| Sep 24 2:05 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+100) | 7 (-108) | Mariners -231 · Angels +187 |
| Sep 24 5:35 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+110) | 7 (-110) | Mariners -197 · Angels +162 |
| Sep 24 7:47 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+110) | 7 (-106) | Mariners -199 · Angels +163 |
| Sep 24 9:25 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+110) | 7 (-110) | Mariners -198 · Angels +163 |
| CLOSESep 24 9:25 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+110) | 7 (-110) | Mariners -198 · Angels +163 |
The read
The last series of the season opens under the lights at T-Mobile Park. Seattle has nothing left to play for, and the Angels are two losses from the franchise's first 100-loss season. Bryan Woo faces Grayson Rodriguez in the first of four. My pick rests mainly on how Seattle's lineup matches up with Rodriguez. Lefties are hitting .324 with a .944 OPS and 10 home runs against Rodriguez this year, and 7 of Seattle's 9 hitters bat left tonight. Rodriguez throws the four-seamer most, and it has allowed a .386 xwOBA. Canzone, batting third, has a .622 SLG against four-seamers over 140 PA. Woo brings a 3.59 xERA against Rodriguez's 5.57, and both pitchers' ERAs sit within half a run of their expected numbers. So the market isn't paying for a fragile number on either side: the starter gap looks real. Woo also has a 2.36 ERA at home this season.
The second reason is the late innings. Saucedo, Fermin, Weiman and Murphy have all pitched on each of the last two days, and none of them has pitched a third straight day this season. Farris threw 30 pitches last night. That likely leaves Suzuki bridging the late innings with Watson plus arms like Peralta, who has a 10.24 ERA over the last 30 days, and Bachman. The Angels' relief corps has a 5.86 ERA in tracked games. Seattle's pen is tired too, but Bazardo and Rucker have had a day off, and Dominguez, who has a 0.68 ERA over the last 30 days, threw only one light inning yesterday.
The best argument against Seattle is a real one. By run differential these teams are only about 0.2 runs per game apart, so the records overstate the gap. Seattle's bullpen has blown 28 saves this season. Munoz hasn't pitched since leaving Sep 20 with a knee issue and is still day-to-day. Seattle learned it was eliminated only this afternoon, and the Angels hold the only stake left in this series. At -196 I'm paying full price. But the Angels' case rests on season-long closeness. Tonight's specifics all point the same way: the starting pitchers, the handedness matchup, and which bullpen has rested arms. I'll pay the price and back Seattle.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Bryan Woo: 1.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.40Woo has allowed 3 earned runs over 19.1 innings in his last 3 starts, with 18 strikeouts. His season ERA is 3.92, so this is a hot stretch well above his norm, and three starts is a small sample. The strikeouts give the run some substance. Against the Angels, lean on his season level as the base and treat the recent form as a modest bump.
TEAM RECORD
Angels 1-7 in Grayson Rodriguez's last 8 starts
1-7The Angels are 1-7 in Rodriguez's last 8 starts and have dropped the last 5 in a row. That covers everything on his days: his pitching, the offense and the bullpen. Eight starts is a short stretch and could flip quickly. In Seattle tonight, the useful question is whether the Angels' price has already moved to reflect how these games have gone.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKGRAYSON RODRIGUEZPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5
I'm taking Grayson Rodriguez over 4.5 hits allowed at -150. The main reason is who he's facing. Left-handed hitters are batting .324 with a .944 OPS and 10 home runs against Rodriguez this year over 216 at-bats. Right-handers hit .235 against him. Seattle's lineup tonight has five left-handed bats plus two switch hitters, Raleigh and Rivas, who will hit from the left side against a righty. That gives seven of nine hitters the favorable side of his split. The top of the order is also hot: Arozarena is 16 for 47 over the last 15 days, Canzone is 7 for 18 over the last week, and Julio Rodriguez is 8 for 19.
The game log fits the matchup. He has allowed at least five hits in each of his last six starts: 8, 7, 6, 7, 7 and 5, newest first. His season average is 5.6 hits per start. The volume doesn't depend on him going deep. He gave up six hits in four innings at Fenway and seven in 5.1 innings in Washington. This is his final start of the year, and the Angels bullpen has four arms that worked both of the last two days. Suzuki has every reason to let him work through traffic instead of pulling him early.
The strongest case against this is the setting. T-Mobile Park plays pitcher-friendly, and tonight is 60 degrees and cloudy with the wind blowing in from center. That takes away some balls in the gap. Seattle hits .232 as a team. The bottom of this order is thin, with Rivas at .147 and Montes at .182, and Rodriguez has three starts of only 12 outs in his last eight. A short outing could strand him at four. At -150, I need him to clear five hits a little better than three times in five. Given his split against lefties and six straight starts over the number, I'll pay it.
- GARY'S PICKLAZARO MONTESH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Lazaro Montes over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -150. He starts in right field and bats eighth against a right-hander, which is the only way the club has let him hit with any success. Against righties he's hitting .258 with a 1.039 OPS and all four of his home runs, in 31 at-bats. On the other side, Rodriguez has been hit hard by left-handed bats all season, allowing a .944 OPS and 10 homers. Montes only needs one thing to happen here. A single, a walk that scores, or a ball that leaves the yard all cash it, and his power means one good swing covers all three categories. His full season line shows 1.3 per game in this market over 18 games, and many of those were partial games off the bench.
The case against him is real, so I'm keeping my conviction modest. He's 1 for 16 over the last seven days. He has 22 strikeouts in 44 big league at-bats. The over hit in only 7 of his last 15 games. Batting eighth cuts his plate appearances, and the prop sheet shows him at 2.7 per game. He is 0 for 13 against lefties. The Angels have a rested Sammy Peralta, and Saucedo and Weiman are also lefties, so if this game is close late, his last trip could come against a lefty or go to a pinch hitter. The park and the wind blowing in don't help a fly-ball hitter either. The sample against righties is small. It lines up with his minor league power, though, and Rodriguez is the right-hander on this staff most vulnerable to a left-handed swing. Two or three looks at him should be enough for Montes to reach this number.
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