Tigers at Pirates

The lights come on at PNC Park with two right-handers carrying real form into a matchup that should stay competitive deep into the evening. Pittsburgh has home field and Braxton Ashcraft, but Detroit brings the pitching chain I trust more at an underdog price.

Ashcraft is coming off a nine-inning, one-run performance and owns a 2.37 ERA with 20 strikeouts against three walks over his last three starts. That is the strongest argument against this ticket. But Keider Montero has been nearly as effective, posting a 2.45 ERA across 18.1 innings in his last three while carrying a 3.22 ERA and 0.99 WHIP for the season. He has also controlled both sides of the plate: left-handed hitters have a .616 OPS against him and right-handed hitters are at .583. Ashcraft’s split is wider, with lefties producing a .740 OPS compared with .600 for righties, and Detroit has five left-handed bats in its confirmed lineup. The Tigers have a legitimate path through this matchup without needing Ashcraft to pitch poorly.

The separation comes after the starters. Detroit’s current bullpen owns a 3.24 ERA, while Pittsburgh’s is at 3.51 and has posted a 5.02 ERA over its last six games. The Pirates needed five relievers Monday, and Kirby Yates and Camilo Doval have each appeared on consecutive days. Detroit used three arms in the opener, with Kenley Jansen throwing only eight pitches, and no Tigers reliever has worked consecutive games across the last three days. That late-inning setup matters in a game I price considerably closer than Pirates -150. I could buy Detroit an extra run, but not at -170 when the outright ticket returns +140. My read is that Montero keeps the Pirates within reach, Detroit makes Ashcraft work, and the stronger bullpen position gives the Tigers enough ways to finish the job. I’m taking the underdog to win, not merely stay close.