Cardinals at Reds
O/U 8.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5
Cardinals ML-112
CONF 63%
WCashedFinal 3-0
The read
Clear skies, a light breeze drifting toward center, and another tight divisional game at Great American Ball Park. After splitting Monday’s doubleheader, both clubs come back with the series still balanced.
I’m backing the starter trending in the right direction. Kyle Leahy has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts, with 17 strikeouts against one walk across his last three. Andrew Abbott is moving the other way: 11 earned runs and 10 walks over his last 16 innings. St. Louis also brings the better current offense, with Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson driving the ball exceptionally well.
The bullpen breaks the tie. Cincinnati’s relief group has a 6.85 ERA over its last seven games, while St. Louis owns the stronger late-inning structure and a 1.82 mark in that span. I considered the Cardinals run line, but this series has already produced two one-run games. At only -112, I’ll pay the modest price and keep the extra run on my side.
Props on this game
2Kyle LeahyOVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed-120
LActual 3
Leahy has allowed at least six hits in four of his last five starts, and his recent run prevention has depended on escaping traffic. That becomes tougher at Great American Ball Park, especially against a Cincinnati lineup with three left-handed bats. Lefties have hit .319 with an .870 OPS against him, while his heavily used four-seamer has allowed a .362 average. I only need five hits, not a big Reds scoring night.
Andrew AbbottUNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-126
LActual 6
Abbott has finished below five strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, including four straight, and his whiff rate dropped to 15 percent in his latest outing. His four-seamer accounts for nearly half his pitches but generates only a 14.7 percent whiff rate.
St. Louis owns one of baseball's lower team strikeout rates, and its best current hitters are making consistent contact.
Four or fewer is the better side.
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