Blue Jays at Rays
O/U 7.5 · RL Rays -1.5
Toronto Blue Jays ML+119
CONF 57%
WCashedFinal 10-5
The read
Under the Tropicana Field roof, the AL East leaders welcome a Toronto club fighting for its postseason life. It feels like a tight, late-inning game, and I want the plus money.
José Soriano is the deciding matchup. His knuckle curve and splitter can miss bats against Tampa Bay’s left-heavy order, and he has allowed only two earned runs across his past three starts. Nick Martinez can still carve up this depleted Toronto lineup, but his sinker is hittable, and the Blue Jays have already seen his pitch mix twice this season.
The bullpen conditions swing the price. Toronto had Monday off and brings its best late-inning arms in clean, while Tampa Bay used Kevin Kelly, Cam Booser and Bryan Baker during last night’s comeback. I’m not paying for the Rays’ record or their 9-3 season-series advantage when the fresher club has the more overpowering starter. Blue Jays moneyline at +119 is my bet.
Props on this game
2Nick MartinezUNDER 3.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-136
LActual 5
Martinez wins with command and weak contact, not strikeouts. He has only 78 punchouts in 138 innings, and this contact-oriented Toronto lineup has already faced him twice. He recorded zero strikeouts over six innings in their most recent meeting. With Bateman, Lukes, Kirk and Clement difficult to put away, I’m taking Martinez under 3.5 strikeouts.
Chandler SimpsonOVER 0.5 Stolen Bases Stolen Bases+235
LActual 0
Simpson has stolen a base in seven of his past 15 games, and this is an inviting matchup whenever he reaches. Opposing runners have succeeded on 46 of 57 attempts against Alejandro Kirk. Simpson is batting leadoff, swinging well and should have multiple chances to get aboard in a low-scoring game where Tampa Bay will need to manufacture runs. I’ll take the aggressive plus price.
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