Tigers at Pirates
O/U 8.5 · RL Tigers -1.5
Tigers ML-105
CONF 62%
WCashedFinal 8-5
The read
Monday night at PNC Park, overcast sky, light breeze toward right, and two clubs trying to keep a fading playoff path alive. This feels like a tight game until one starter loses the strike zone.
I’m backing Framber Valdez to win that matchup. Pittsburgh owns only a .695 OPS against lefties, and its right-handed-heavy order lets Valdez lean on his best weapon, the curveball. Carmen Mlodzinski has allowed nine earned runs in 5⅓ innings since returning to the rotation, and Detroit can stack four left-handed bats against a pitcher who has been significantly more vulnerable from that side.
The Tigers are depleted and coming off a sweep, but the market has made this nearly a coin flip despite Detroit holding the clearer advantage both at starter and in the bullpen. Pittsburgh’s recent offensive surge makes this uncomfortable, which is why I’m staying off the run line. At -105, I’ll put the $100 on Detroit to win outright.
Props on this game
2Carmen MlodzinskiUNDER 2.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts+132
LActual 3
I’m fading Mlodzinski’s ability to miss bats. He has one strikeout in each of his two starts since returning to the rotation, lasting only three and 2⅓ innings.
Detroit can send several low-whiff hitters at him, while its four left-handed bats match up with the side against which he has allowed a .786 OPS. Traffic should also keep his pitch count moving.
Getting plus money on the under is the best price on this board.
Henry DavisUNDER 0.5 Total Bases Total Bases-106
LActual 1
Davis has three hits in his last 25 at-bats, including one in his last 12, with an 84.0 mph average exit velocity and no recent barrels. Batting ninth also creates a real chance he receives only three plate appearances. Framber Valdez’s command can produce walks, but those do not hurt this bet, and his curveball gives him a strong weapon against an aggressive hitter. I’ll take Davis to finish without a hit.
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