Braves at Twins

The read

• Matt OlsonOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-106

  WActual 2

  Olson has cleared this number in 10 of his past 15 games, producing six homers while barreling four of his last 17 balls in play. Bailey Ober’s extreme fly-ball profile and 10.6% barrel rate are a dangerous combination against Atlanta’s biggest power threat. The warm conditions and wind toward center add another small boost, and this price gives me both the extra-base-hit and multi-hit paths.

• Bailey OberOVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed-125

  WActual 6

  Ober has allowed at least six hits in five of his past eight starts, and Atlanta can attack his diminished velocity from both sides of the plate. His changeup carries a .437 expected wOBA despite being his most-used pitch, while his low ground-ball rate leaves plenty of contact in the air. Six hits is reachable even if Minnesota removes him before he completes six innings.

• Matt OlsonOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+241

  LActual 0

  Olson has homered in more than half of his last fifteen games and is carrying the National League's best extra-base-hit total into a matchup built for him. Bailey Ober is sitting in the high 80s with his fastball and leaning hard on a changeup that's been getting hit hard — a .437 expected wOBA against it — and lefties have taken him deep twelve times in 217 at-bats this season, well above what right-handers have done to him. Olson is a lefty bat on a barrel binge, four in his last seventeen balls in play, running into exactly the pitch and the platoon Ober struggles with most. Plus money on this much heat, against this much opportunity, is the number I want.

• Austin RileyOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+425

  LActual 0

  Riley's contact quality the last week is loud — a 97 mph average exit velocity with four barrels on just sixteen balls in play. That kind of contact tends to turn into home runs whether or not the platoon sheet favors it, and Ober has already been homer-prone in three of his last six starts. Riley is squaring this pitching staff up as hard as anyone in the lineup right now, and plus-money still sitting on a hitter this locked in is a price I'll take.

• Josh BellOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+600

  LActual 0

  Bell is a switch-hitter riding a .933 OPS with three home runs over his last fifteen games, and he gets to choose his side of the plate against the lefty Martín Pérez. Pérez has been dominant this month, but hitters have posted a .424 expected wOBA against his cutter, the one pitch in his mix that's been hittable — and Bell is squaring up the ball well enough right now to make him pay for a mistake there. A hot bat at plus-six hundred is a price worth using.

• Mike YastrzemskiOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+475

  LActual 0

  Yastrzemski is a left-handed bat stepping into the exact matchup that's hurt Bailey Ober most this season — lefties have taken him deep twelve times in 217 at-bats, nearly double the rate right-handers have managed. Yastrzemski has two home runs over his last fifteen games and is squaring the ball up at a 94.5 mph average exit velocity, enough juice to make Ober pay if he leaves one up. The matchup fit is specific and the price is generous enough to take the swing.

• Brooks LeeOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+830

  LActual 0

  Lee hit a grand slam last night and has driven in five runs over his last week. He's a switch-hitter who gets the platoon edge against the lefty Pérez, and at this price I don't need much — the payout only requires me to be right under eleven percent of the time, and Lee has already gone deep in three of his last fifteen games. That gap between his recent rate and what the price demands is exactly what I'm paying for.