White Sox at Tigers

The read

• Sean NewcombUNDER 0.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs-110

  WActual 0

  I'm betting the role as much as the arm. Newcomb is opening rather than facing Detroit three times, and he brings a 2.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a .581 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Detroit has only a .703 OPS against lefties, and Newcomb already worked three hitless innings at Comerica in June. With his exposure likely limited to roughly two innings, I like the price on a clean handoff.

• Jackson JobeUNDER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs+128

  LActual 6

  I don't need Jobe to repeat the five scoreless innings from his return. I need him to allow no more than one earned run during another controlled workload.

  His upper-90s fastball and deep pitch mix are a difficult fit for a Chicago lineup featuring several elevated whiff rates. Comerica's dimensions and the wind coming in from left also reduce the damage when contact is made.

  With Jobe unlikely to work deep enough to face the lineup three times, plus money on the under is attractive.

• Munetaka MurakamiOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+261

  WActual 1

  Murakami's the loudest power indicator on this whole board right now. Over his last two weeks he's barreling balls at a rate nobody else in either lineup is touching, his average exit velocity is well ahead of the field, and he's already got two home runs in his last seven games.

  He's left-handed, which matters tonight — his pull path runs to right field, away from that wind blowing in from left that's going to knock down some fly balls hit the other way. Jobe's stuff is nasty, upper-90s heat with a wipeout slider, but he's in just his second start off Tommy John surgery and was capped around 70 pitches last time out.

  He won't be around long enough to make Murakami see him three times through the order, and the swings I'm seeing right now say he only needs one mistake. Short price, but the underlying quality of contact backs it up.

• Colson MontgomeryOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+388

  LActual 0

  Twenty-six home runs already this season puts Montgomery among the real power threats in this lineup, and even with his average cooling off he's still barreling the ball at a healthy clip the last couple weeks. Same shell as Murakami here — lefty bat, pull side running away from the wind tonight. Jobe's electric but pitch-count-limited in this comeback start, so Montgomery isn't getting worn down by him deep into the game — a power bat like this just needs the one mistake early before the Tigers turn it over to the pen. His whiff rate's been up, so I'm not pretending this is a pure contact-quality bet, but the raw power profile and the short outing ahead of him are enough to like it at this number.

• Gleyber TorresOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+850

  LActual 0

  This one's about opportunity and price. Torres leads off, so he's getting more trips to the plate than anyone else on the field tonight, and he's gone deep in roughly a quarter of his games this stretch — well beyond what a price this long is asking for.

  Newcomb's opening for the White Sox and has never gone more than three innings doing it all season, so Torres gets an early crack at a reliever playing starter, then multiple looks at a Chicago bullpen that just threw a dozen innings over the last three days and coughed up eight earned runs in a game they blew late last night. He's also not chasing — one of the more disciplined approaches in this matchup, so when a mistake comes into the zone he's in position to do damage with it.

  The recent barrels haven't been loud, but the volume of at-bats against a taxed pen, plus a price this long, makes it worth the swing.