Rangers at Athletics
O/U 9.5 · RL Rangers -1.5
Athletics ML+100
CONF 58%
WCashedFinal 3-8
The read
Clear night in West Sacramento, two clubs carrying three-game skids, and neither side deserves to be priced like a sure thing. I’m taking the Athletics at even money.
The matchup that decided it is Oakland’s left-handed traffic against Kumar Rocker. Lefties have produced an .865 OPS against him, and McNeil, Soderstrom, Butler, Cortes and Walton can force him away from his dominant slider and onto the weaker parts of his arsenal. Gage Jump is volatile, especially at home, but his 11-strikeout rebound in Boston gives him the sharper current ceiling against a Texas lineup that has scored four runs in three games.
Texas also arrives without rest after deGrom’s two-inning exit forced five innings from the bullpen, while Oakland had Thursday off. The Athletics’ relief corps can absolutely make this uncomfortable, so I’m not paying heavy juice for the run line. But with the rest advantage, the platoon edge and plus money attached, Athletics ML +100 is the bet.
Props on this game
2Kumar RockerOVER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts+128
LActual 3
Rocker has reached five strikeouts in five straight starts, including five in only three innings last time out. His slider owns a 44.5% whiff rate, and Oakland has several swing-and-miss bats in the heart and bottom of the order. He does not need to pitch well or work deep to clear a number this low. Getting plus money on five strikeouts is the value.
Tyler SoderstromOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+112
LActual 1
Soderstrom gets the matchup I want against Rocker, who has allowed an .865 OPS and 10 home runs to left-handed hitters. He has cleared this number in nine of his last 15 games and is driving the ball again, with two homers and a 95.3 mph average exit velocity over the past week. Batting third in this park gives him multiple paths to two bases.
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