MLB · Thu, Jun 25 · 7:10 PM

Cubs at Mets

O/U 8.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Citi Field

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· -110

We’ve got a beautiful evening for baseball at Citi Field, where the Chicago Cubs are looking to finish off a four-game sweep against a reeling New New York Mets squad. The market has priced this game as a pick’em, with the Mets at -106 and the Cubs at -110, expecting New York to stabilize behind Freddy Peralta. But the real story is the matchup on the field. The Cubs are absolutely rolling, having outscored the Mets 29-14 over the first three games of this series, and they possess a critical platoon advantage tonight that makes them the clear side to back. Chicago’s offense is averaging 4.9 runs per game with a .744 team OPS this season, and their lefty-heavy lineup—featuring Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Conforto, and Michael Busch at the top—profiles perfectly against Peralta. While Peralta is a talented strikeout pitcher (83 K in 85.2 IP) whose 3.83 xERA suggests his 4.83 ERA is a bit unlucky, his extreme platoon vulnerability is his undoing. Peralta allows a massive .813 OPS and 11 home runs to left-handed batters compared to a stingy .639 OPS and just 1 home run to right-handers. With an 11 mph wind blowing out to left field and Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson coming in red-hot with 15 RBIs in this series alone, the Cubs’ bats are in a prime position to jump on Peralta early. The strongest argument against the Cubs is their current pitching crisis, with starters Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown both landing on the injured list yesterday. This forces left-hander Matthew Boyd (6.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) to make his first start since May 3 on a strict pitch count. However, the Mets' offense is missing key depth with Marcus Semien landing on the injured list today with a hip injury, leaving their lineup thin. Furthermore, the Mets have a massive defensive liability behind the plate; catcher Francisco Alvarez has a poor -4 Blocks Above Average and a slow pop time, which will allow speedsters like Crow-Armstrong (.938 OPS in 12 AB at Citi Field) to run wild. Combine that with a Mets defense that has committed 51 errors and a heavily depleted bullpen, and the Cubs at -110 are the smartest play on the board to complete the sweep.

Chicago’s offense is averaging 4.9 runs per game with a .744 team OPS this season, and their lefty-heavy lineup—featuring Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Conforto, and Michael Busch at the top—profiles perfectly against Peralta. While Peralta is a talented strikeout pitcher (83 K in 85.2 IP) whose 3.83 xERA suggests his 4.83 ERA is a bit unlucky, his extreme platoon vulnerability is his undoing. Peralta allows a massive .813 OPS and 11 home runs to left-handed batters compared to a stingy .639 OPS and just 1 home run to right-handers. With an 11 mph wind blowing out to left field and Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson coming in red-hot with 15 RBIs in this series alone, the Cubs’ bats are in a prime position to jump on Peralta early.

The strongest argument against the Cubs is their current pitching crisis, with starters Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown both landing on the injured list yesterday. This forces left-hander Matthew Boyd (6.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) to make his first start since May 3 on a strict pitch count. However, the Mets' offense is missing key depth with Marcus Semien landing on the injured list today with a hip injury, leaving their lineup thin. Furthermore, the Mets have a massive defensive liability behind the plate; catcher Francisco Alvarez has a poor -4 Blocks Above Average and a slow pop time, which will allow speedsters like Crow-Armstrong (.938 OPS in 12 AB at Citi Field) to run wild. Combine that with a Mets defense that has committed 51 errors and a heavily depleted bullpen, and the Cubs at -110 are the smartest play on the board to complete the sweep.

The pick & result

Published pick: Cubs ML -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Won
Final score: 4-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Mets: [NEW] Marcus Semien (2B) — Hip (Left): Semien went 2-for-4 with a triple and two RBI in Thursday's win over the Phillies. (Jun 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Juan Soto (LF) — Back (Left): Soto (back) is out of the lineup for the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader versus the Cubs. (Jun 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Robert "looked normal" while taking a full session of batting practice in the cages Tuesday, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (Jun 23 — 2d ago) [NEW] Christian Scott (SP) — Hip (Right): Manager Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Scott (hip) is expected to be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start this weekend against the Phillies, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 23 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Tyrone Taylor (CF) — Hip (Right): Taylor (hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports. (Jun 18 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Christian Arroyo (Second Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday. (Jun 17 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 15 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre. (May 31 — 24d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 37d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 48d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Not Specified): The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 48d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 48d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 48d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (May 8 — 48d ago) [NEW] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports. (Jun 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cabrera was diagnosed with a moderate-grade left hamstring strain Wednesday following an MRI and is without a return timeline, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Jun 24 — 1d ago) [NEW] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Palencia was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his right arm Saturday, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jun 20 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jameson Taillon (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. (Jun 9 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 39d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Freddy Peralta: 11.20 ERA over his last 3 starts
11.20
Across his last 3 starts (13.7 IP) he has been tagged for 17 earned runs — a 11.20 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP (1.39 season) against a 4.83 season mark.

PLATOON EDGE

Mark Vientos (bats R) hits 4th against Matthew Boyd (LHP)
.879
Over 80 AB vs. Left, Mark Vientos owns a .879 OPS versus .529 in 138 AB the other way. He sees LHP Matthew Boyd tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.

HEAT CHECK

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.399 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.399
The last 15 days sample runs 54 PA: a 1.399 OPS versus .886 for the season, 0.513 above his norm. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Bo Bichette: 1.067 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.067
That 1.067 OPS spans the last 15 days (58 PA) against a .688 season baseline, a 0.379 swing. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

HR THREAT

Pete Crow-Armstrong
+390
This pick doubles down on the strongest matchup factor in the game: Peralta's inability to keep the ball in the park against lefties. Crow-Armstrong is currently pulling the ball with authority, and the wind direction tonight specifically aids left-handed hitters who can get the ball into the air.

PARK WEATHER

Wind blowing out 12 mph at Citi Field tonight
OUT 12
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Partly Cloudy, 76°, wind 12 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 6.5.

SITUATIONAL

NYM's bullpen has covered 14.3 innings over the last 3 games
14.3
That is 14.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Cionel Perez (2.3) and Tobias Myers (2). CHC's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.

STREAK

NYM games have gone OVER 4 straight
O4
New York Mets games have gone OVER 4 straight — 13 runs a night against an average line of 11.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.

REGRESSION

Matthew Boyd: 6 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
4.28
Matthew Boyd carries a 6 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (1.72 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .266 off him vs a .258 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
Nico Hoerner: .241 AVG vs .292 xBA
.292
Nico Hoerner is hitting .241 against a .292 expected average (xBA) over 356 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .298 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 25, 2026 at 12:34 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBCubs· -105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently the most productive hitter in the National League, carrying a 10-game hitting streak and a .463 average over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he draws a premier matchup against Freddy Peralta, whose season has been defined by a massive platoon disadvantage. Peralta has surrendered 11 of his 12 home runs this season to left-handed hitters and allows a bloated .813 OPS to the left side. PCA leads off for a Cubs offense that has scored 9+ runs in three straight games, ensuring he gets maximum plate appearances. With an 11 mph wind blowing out toward the left-field gap, PCA's current power surge (6 HR in L10) is well-positioned to clear this 1.5 total bases line.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Total Bases over 1.5
-105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Cubs
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently the most productive hitter in the National League, carrying a 10-game hitting streak and a .463 average over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he draws a premier matchup against Freddy Peralta, whose season has been defined by a massive platoon disadvantage.
Peralta has surrendered 11 of his 12 home runs this season to left-handed hitters and allows a bloated .813 OPS to the left side. PCA leads off for a Cubs offense that has scored 9+ runs in three straight games, ensuring he gets maximum plate appearances.
With an 11 mph wind blowing out toward the left-field gap, PCA's current power surge (6 HR in L10) is well-positioned to clear this 1.5 total bases line.
GARY'S PICK
BO BICHETTETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBMets· +100
LOST · ACTUAL 1
While the Mets have struggled as a team, Bo Bichette has been a consistent outlier, hitting .372 over his last 10 games with multi-hit performances in six of those contests. He faces LHP Matthew Boyd, who is returning from the IL and has shown extreme vulnerability to right-handed bats, allowing a .794 OPS and a dangerous 50.8% hard-hit rate. Boyd is a fly-ball-leaning pitcher (0.90 GO/AO), which plays directly into the hitting environment tonight where wind is blowing 11 mph out to left field. Bichette's high contact rate and current form make him the most likely Met to exploit Boyd's high hard-hit allowance.
Bo Bichette
Total Bases over 1.5
+100 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Mets
While the Mets have struggled as a team, Bo Bichette has been a consistent outlier, hitting .372 over his last 10 games with multi-hit performances in six of those contests. He faces LHP Matthew Boyd, who is returning from the IL and has shown extreme vulnerability to right-handed bats, allowing a .794 OPS and a dangerous 50.8% hard-hit rate. Boyd is a fly-ball-leaning pitcher (0.90 GO/AO), which plays directly into the hitting environment tonight where wind is blowing 11 mph out to left field. Bichette's high contact rate and current form make him the most likely Met to exploit Boyd's high hard-hit allowance.
THE LONG SHOT
PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHR OVER 0.5
MLBCubs· +390
LOST · ACTUAL 0
This pick doubles down on the strongest matchup factor in the game: Peralta's inability to keep the ball in the park against lefties. Crow-Armstrong is currently pulling the ball with authority, and the wind direction tonight specifically aids left-handed hitters who can get the ball into the air. With PCA hitting at a .463 clip and Peralta struggling to find his command (18 runs allowed in June), the rookie is in a perfect spot to add to his season total of 17 homers. Both props move together: if PCA is hitting well enough for total bases, the home run is the natural ceiling for that production.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
HR over 0.5
+390 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Cubs
This pick doubles down on the strongest matchup factor in the game: Peralta's inability to keep the ball in the park against lefties. Crow-Armstrong is currently pulling the ball with authority, and the wind direction tonight specifically aids left-handed hitters who can get the ball into the air. With PCA hitting at a .463 clip and Peralta struggling to find his command (18 runs allowed in June), the rookie is in a perfect spot to add to his season total of 17 homers. Both props move together: if PCA is hitting well enough for total bases, the home run is the natural ceiling for that production.

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