Daily archive

2026-06-25

The stored Gary board for Thu, Jun 25. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB12:35 PM

Mariners @ Pirates

Welcome to PNC Park, where the Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up their three-game interleague series with a high-stakes afternoon rubber match. While we have a clear starting pitching mismatch, the real key to this game lies in a massive roster change from this morning. The Pirates placed first baseman Spencer Horwitz (.842 OPS) on the 10-day IL due to hamstring discomfort. This fresh injury severely depletes a lineup already missing key pieces. It creates a major hurdle for Pittsburgh against Bryce Miller, who is having a dominant season with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. Miller's signature strength is neutralizing left-handed hitters, holding them to a .155 batting average and a .454 OPS. Without Horwitz, Pittsburgh's remaining left-handed bats like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn will struggle to find success against Miller's reverse splits. At the same time, the Mariners' bats get a perfect bounce-back environment against Bubba Chandler. Chandler has struggled to a 4.62 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, allowing a .797 OPS and seven of his nine home runs to lefties. Seattle's lineup features six left-handed or switch-hitting bats, including Luke Raley, who boasts a strong .830 OPS with 14 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Furthermore, Chandler is a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.62 GO/AO ratio, which is highly dangerous with a 10 mph wind blowing straight out to left field today. This environment is ripe for Seattle's lefty power threats to break out. The best argument against our side is the bullpen disparity. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a fully rested high-leverage core, while Seattle's relief corps has thrown 12.0 innings over the past three days, and their closer carries a shaky 5.08 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Additionally, Henry Davis has an elite 60%+ caught-stealing rate that will freeze Seattle's run game. However, a bullpen only matters if you can keep the game close. Without Horwitz, the Pirates lack the firepower to handle Miller. Seattle's starting pitching advantage and perfect platoon matchups against Chandler will establish an early lead. We are getting a reasonable price on the Mariners moneyline before the market fully accounts for Pittsburgh's depleted lineup.

Mariners ML-146

CONF

72%

MLB3:45 PM

Athletics @ Giants

It is a gorgeous, cool afternoon at Oracle Park as the San Francisco Giants look to complete a three-game sweep of their cross-bay rivals, the Oakland Athletics. With a 3:45 PM ET start time and an 8 mph wind blowing out to left field, the stage is set for a classic finale where pitching stability and fresh injury developments dictate the value. The Giants (33-46 overall) send right-hander Landen Roupp to the hill, while the Athletics (38-42 overall) counter with left-hander Jeffrey Springs. This matchup presents a clear opportunity to back the Giants at -134 because the current line does not fully reflect the critical, last-minute lineup depletions suffered by Oakland. Today, the Athletics' offense was dealt a massive blow with second baseman Zack Gelof placed on the 10-day injured list due to a hand injury and shortstop Jacob Wilson scratched from the lineup with a shoulder injury. These fresh, zero-day absences, combined with their established loss of Brent Rooker, severely gut an Oakland offense that has already scored one or zero runs in three of its last four games. On the mound, Jeffrey Springs (3-7, 5.55 ERA, 4.52 xERA) is a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.69 GO/AO who has surrendered 21 home runs in 16 starts. He faces a righty-heavy Giants lineup designed to expose his platoon splits (allowing a .270 AVG and .861 OPS to right-handed batters), featuring Casey Schmitt, who hits LHP to the tune of a .363 AVG and .911 OPS. While the Giants are missing their own premier hitter in Luis Arraez, who was ruled out today with a foot injury, San Francisco's lineup remains significantly deeper and better positioned to capitalize on Springs' home run vulnerability. On the other side, Landen Roupp (5-7, 4.15 ERA) represents the superior option. Roupp's 3.29 xERA indicates substantial underperformance by 0.85 runs, suggesting his core pitching has been much better than his traditional ERA shows. Roupp limits hard contact at an elite rate (3.7% barrel rate, 29.9% hard-hit rate) and possesses a 1.55 GO/AO, which leans heavily ground-ball. This ground-ball profile plays perfectly behind an infield defense anchored by Matt Chapman (+13 Defensive Runs Saved), while rookie catcher Daniel Susac brings elite framing (4 framing runs, 95th percentile) to shut down the running game. The strongest argument against San Francisco is their underachieving offense, but facing a reeling Springs and a depleted Athletics team that has lost four straight games, the Giants hold a decisive defensive, pitching, and bullpen edge. With Giants closer Caleb Kilian fresh and ready, lay the price on the home sweep.

Giants ML-134

CONF

78%

WC4:00 PM

Germany @ Ecuador

With the glittering skyline of Manhattan serving as the backdrop, MetLife Stadium sets the stage for a critical Group E finale as Ecuador fights for World Cup survival against a formidable German squad. This is a classic tournament trap spot where the market is overvaluing Germany's sheer paper talent and ignoring the reality of motivation. Germany has already secured qualification and practically locked up the top spot in Group E with their massive +7 goal difference. No matter what Julian Nagelsmann says about maintaining rhythm, there is an unavoidable human element of self-preservation here—especially with starting center-back Nico Schlotterbeck already ruled out of the tournament with an MCL tear. Germany’s players will naturally pull back in 50-50 challenges to avoid further injuries. Ecuador, sitting on 1 point and a -1 goal difference, is playing for their literal lives. That monumental gap in physical intensity and desperation is where tournament giant-killings are born. Tactically, the market is overpaying for a fragile number by pricing Ecuador's moneyline at +380 and the +0.5 handicap at +135 simply because they have yet to score in this tournament. But Ecuador's attack is primed for a massive regression to the mean; they average 1.92 xG over their last six fixtures and took 15 shots on target while hitting the woodwork four times in their scoreless draw with Curaçao. With key attackers like Enner Valencia and Gonzalo Plata fully healthy, and a stingy defense that has allowed just 1 goal in this tournament, Ecuador has the perfect blueprint to frustrate a qualified opponent. Germany averages over 60% possession but will likely play at a low-risk, methodical tempo to conserve energy in the late-June East Rutherford humidity. The biggest argument against Ecuador is Germany’s elite form, having scored 9 goals in their first two matches. However, with Schlotterbeck out, Germany’s defensive coordination will be tested, and they have no incentive to risk their stars in a high-tempo physical battle. Under these conditions, a tightly contested, low-scoring affair is highly likely. Ecuador has the defensive discipline and the desperate motivation required to secure at least a point, making the +0.5 handicap at +135 incredible value.

Ecuador +0.5+135

CONF

82%

WC4:00 PM

Germany @ Ecuador

East Rutherford hosts a high-stakes tactical chess match as a desperate Ecuadorian defense collides with a high-powered German attack that is already looking ahead to the knockout stages. This game is priced on Germany's recent high-scoring outings, but the under is where the real value lies. Germany has absolutely no structural need to chase goals here; a low-risk, possession-based approach protects their players from injury and yellow card suspensions. They will likely dominate possession—averaging over 60%—but at a much slower, more methodical tempo, passing Ecuador to death without taking high-risk attacking transitions. With Nico Schlotterbeck out of the tournament, Germany’s defensive focus under Nagelsmann will be on organization and safety rather than aggressive pressing. On the other side of the pitch, Ecuador’s defensive discipline is top-tier. They have conceded only once in two tournament games, holding an average of 1.01 xGA over their last six matches. They will defend deep, keeping their lines compact to deny space to Musiala and Wirtz, and relying on their healthy back three of Pacho, Hincapié, and Franco to protect the box. Because Ecuador’s attack has suffered from an extreme finishing slump—failing to score despite heavy shot volume—they are highly unlikely to engage in an open, end-to-end shootout, prioritizing defensive structure first to keep themselves in the game. The main counter-argument to the under is the Over 2.5 line being heavily favored at -155, backed by Germany’s 10-match international average of 3.4 goals per game. However, that number is inflated by matches where Germany had full motivation and was facing less compact defenses. In a warm late-June environment at MetLife Stadium, with Germany conserving energy and Ecuador playing a conservative, low-risk defensive block to stay alive, this match will be far more of a tactical grind than a high-scoring blowout. The Under 2.5 at plus-money is an absolute steal.

Under 2.5+125

CONF

78%

WC4:00 PM

Côte d'Ivoire @ Curaçao

Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia sets the stage for a critical final Group E showdown as a desperate Curaçao squad clashes with a tactically poised Côte d'Ivoire team. With a spot in the knockout rounds on the line, this match represents a fascinating clash of tournament incentives and physical endurance. From a gambler's perspective, this is a spot where the market is vastly overrating the favorite's incentive to run up the score, and we are getting massive value on Curaçao +1.5 at 155. The tournament math is the anchor of this play. Côte d'Ivoire sits in second place with 3 points and a neutral goal difference, meaning a draw is a completely acceptable result that guarantees their advancement. Moreover, they are dealing with critical defensive injuries, with their starting right-back ruled out due to a hamstring injury and their top starting center-back relegated to the bench with a thigh issue. With a depleted defensive line, the Ivorians have absolutely no reason to play a high-risk, expansive style. They will want to utilize their superior 87% passing accuracy to slow the game down and minimize defensive exposure, which heavily caps their offensive ceiling and makes a multi-goal victory highly unlikely. The strongest argument against backing Curaçao is their horrific 1-7 opening defeat to Germany and their anemic offensive metrics, averaging just 0.45 xG and 2.67 shots on target per match. However, the market is overpaying for that early blowout and ignoring their incredible defensive reset against Ecuador, where they fought to a 0-0 draw on the back of a 13-save performance from their goalkeeper. With all 11 primary starters fully fit and active attackers like G. Kastaneer (5 goals in 6 caps) and K. Gorré (3 goals, 3 assists in 8 caps) leading the line, Curaçao has the discipline to stay compact. Even if they cannot secure the win they desperately need, their low block and high motivation will keep this game extremely competitive, allowing them to easily cover the +1.5 handicap.

Curaçao +1.5+155

CONF

72%

WC4:00 PM

Côte d'Ivoire @ Curaçao

Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia sets the stage for a critical final Group E showdown as a desperate Curaçao squad clashes with a tactically poised Côte d'Ivoire team. With a spot in the knockout rounds on the line, this match represents a fascinating clash of tournament incentives and physical endurance. From a gambler's perspective, the 3.5 goal line represents an outstanding opportunity to back Under 3.5 at -135 in what projects to be a highly controlled, low-scoring tactical battle. Côte d'Ivoire's primary goal is to secure passage to the Round of 32, which is guaranteed with a draw. Facing critical defensive injuries—with their starting right-back ruled out and a key starting center-back limited to the bench—the Ivorians will likely look to control the tempo through slow, risk-averse possession. Their tournament-leading 87% passing accuracy is the perfect tool to starve Curaçao of the ball and run down the clock, keeping the overall pace of the match exceptionally slow and defensive. The main argument against the under is the high-scoring nature of Curaçao’s opener against Germany, but that match is a clear outlier. In their subsequent outing, Curaçao put on a defensive masterclass, grinding out a 0-0 draw against Ecuador with their goalkeeper making 13 saves. Curaçao’s attack is highly limited, averaging just 0.45 xG and 2.67 shots on target per match, and they average only 1.0 corner and 31% possession. With Côte d'Ivoire conceding just 1.0 goal per match in this tournament, there is very little chance of a high-scoring shootout. On the half-goal grid of 3.5, the under is incredibly safe as both teams play to their mathematical priorities rather than engaging in an open, high-risk game.

Under 3.5-135

CONF

78%

MLB6:45 PM

Phillies @ Nationals

As twilight settles over the nation’s capital, the division-rival Phillies and Nationals square off at Nationals Park for the final chapter of this high-scoring four-game set. The air is warm and a 14 mph wind is blowing straight out to center field, setting the stage for a matchup where keeping the ball on the ground is paramount. Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez gives the visitors a massive starting pitching advantage. Sánchez is a ground-ball pitcher with a 1.65 GO/AO ratio and an elite 1.80 ERA, and he has been in sensational form recently with a 2.20 ERA and a 35:4 K/BB ratio over his last five starts. Conversely, Washington’s Cade Cavalli brings a 4.07 ERA and a more neutral 1.17 GO/AO ratio, leaving him highly vulnerable to tonight's windy conditions. Furthermore, Cavalli struggles mightily against lefties, allowing a .303 average and .806 OPS, which is a fatal flaw against the Phillies' elite left-handed core of Bryce Harper (1.030 OPS vs RHP) and Kyle Schwarber (.935 OPS vs RHP). While Sánchez’s 1.80 ERA is slightly outrunning his 2.96 xERA—meaning we are paying a premium on a potentially overvalued number—the matchup advantages on the field are too severe to ignore. The gap widens further when looking at defensive efficiency and bullpen depth. Washington has committed a league-worst 67 errors this season, which will only exacerbate Cavalli's 1.46 WHIP. Additionally, the Nationals' bullpen is severely overextended, with Richard Lovelady having pitched three straight days, whereas the Phillies can call upon a reliable Jhoan Duran (1.69 ERA) to lock down the late innings. Even with Washington leading the league with 12 home runs over the last week, the absence of star shortstop CJ Abrams leaves their lineup far too thin to keep pace with a fully loaded Philadelphia offense. Back the Phillies to take the series finale.

Phillies ML-180

CONF

85%

MLB7:07 PM

Rangers @ Blue Jays

Under the closed roof of the Rogers Centre, two American League squads hovering just below the .500 mark collide tonight as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Texas Rangers. With both teams desperate to spark a run, this opening matchup features an intriguing pitching duel and the return of a major offensive superstar. My money is on the Rangers at +124 tonight because the matchup heavily neutralizes Toronto's primary advantage while giving Texas a massive offensive injection. The Blue Jays are rolling out an overwhelmingly right-handed lineup with eight of their nine starters batting righty to counter the left-handed MacKenzie Gore. However, Gore possesses extreme reverse platoon splits this season, holding right-handed hitters to a stifling .211 AVG and .654 OPS compared to a .278 AVG and .784 OPS against lefties. This completely flips the script on Toronto's lineup construction. To make matters worse for the home team, superstar shortstop Corey Seager was activated today and immediately slots into the three-hole. Seager is Gausman's ultimate nemesis, boasting a career .440 AVG over 25 at-bats against him. While Gausman's season-long 3.49 xERA suggests elite underlying talent, the market is overpaying for that number tonight. Gausman is in the midst of extreme volatility with a 6.12 ERA over his last five starts, including a disastrous outing where he surrendered seven runs in two innings. The counter-argument here is that Gausman has been highly effective at home with a 3.10 ERA, and the closed roof provides the perfect conditions for his splitter-heavy mix. But the defensive and tactical margins heavily favor Texas. Both starters are fly-ball-oriented pitchers—Gore with a 0.68 GO/AO and Gausman with a 0.86 GO/AO—making outfield defense and avoiding mistakes paramount. Texas has committed just 36 errors this season compared to Toronto's 51, giving the Rangers a massive edge in fundamental play. Additionally, Gausman has surrendered nine stolen bases this season, and Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk has a weak 12.5% caught-stealing rate. This vulnerability gives the Rangers an extra tool to pressure Gausman on the basepaths. With Gore in more stable recent form and Seager's return anchoring the lineup, the Rangers are primed to take the series opener.

Rangers ML+124

CONF

68%

MLB7:10 PM

Yankees @ Red Sox

Welcome to a warm, partly cloudy evening at historic Fenway Park, where the first-place New York Yankees open a crucial four-game set against the arch-rival Boston Red Sox. On the hill, a classic battle of opposites unfolds as Boston's young lefty Connelly Early attempts to quiet the Bronx bombers, while New York hands the ball to their rising Cy Young frontrunner, Cam Schlittler. The price of -148 on the Yankees represents a major value spot on the board tonight. While the market is paying a premium for starting pitching based on Schlittler's sparkly 1.71 ERA, his underlying 2.76 xERA suggests some normal regression is typical, though he remains a clear tier above his counterpart. Conversely, the market is overpaying for Early's 3.64 ERA as a stable number, given his fragile 4.40 xERA and a bloated 4.82 ERA at Fenway Park. Schlittler’s outstanding road form—highlighted by a 1.12 ERA over 56.1 away innings and a 13-strikeout gem in his last start—gives New York an overwhelming advantage from the first pitch, especially against a Boston team that is just 12-25 at home this year and has dropped seven of their last ten games. Furthermore, the Yankees hold a severe platoon advantage against the left-handed Early. Early has struggled to contain right-handed hitters, allowing a .763 OPS and 10 home runs this season, which plays right into the hands of Paul Goldschmidt, who is hitting .408 with a massive 1.304 OPS and 8 home runs in 76 at-bats against lefties. Even with Ryan McMahon recently sidelined, his replacement, Amed Rosario, adds another useful right-handed bat against left-handed pitching. With Fenway's warm 78°F air and wind blowing out to left, the Yankees' league-leading offense (5.1 runs per game, 119 home runs) is built to exploit Early's fly-ball tendency (0.85 GO/AO) and high contact rates. The biggest case against New York is their depleted bullpen, with David Bednar and Fernando Cruz highly taxed after throwing on back-to-back days, while Boston's Aroldis Chapman is fully rested. Boston also possesses a superior defense with 36 DRS compared to New York’s unranked unit. However, Schlittler's ability to go deep into games—demonstrated by his previous dominant starts against Boston this season—largely neutralizes this bullpen concern. Boston’s offense averages only 3.9 runs per game and is unlikely to generate enough early traffic against Schlittler to exploit the Yankees' tired relief arms. Trust the Yankees' pitching dominance and potent platoon matchups to secure the road victory.

Yankees ML-148

CONF

82%

MLB7:45 PM

Diamondbacks @ Cardinals

Under the gray skies of Busch Stadium, the St. Louis Cardinals look to salvage a series split against the Arizona Diamondbacks in this high-stakes Thursday night finale. At first glance, backing a pitcher with a massive gap between his actual and expected stats can feel risky, and there is no denying that the market is overpaying for Michael McGreevy's fragile 3.35 season ERA given his 5.70 xERA. However, this matchup is less about McGreevy's looming regression and far more about the complete collapse of Zac Gallen, who has been completely vulnerable over his last five starts, posting an 8.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP while surrendering 44 hits in 25.1 innings. Gallen has been highly vulnerable against left-handed hitters all year, allowing a .345 AVG and a .924 OPS, which plays directly into the hands of St. Louis's best hitters. Alec Burleson (.335 AVG and 1.015 OPS vs. RHP) and Lars Nootbaar (.298 AVG and .889 OPS vs. RHP) are primed to feast on Gallen's struggling fastball, especially with Gallen carrying a brutal 7.40 ERA in night games and a 6.98 ERA on the road. The strongest argument against the Cardinals is the threat of McGreevy's expected regression, especially against a disciplined Arizona lineup that welcomes back Max Kepler's left-handed power. Yet, McGreevy has been highly effective at Busch Stadium this year, maintaining a 2.25 ERA over 40 home innings. His ground-ball profile (1.14 GO/AO) is perfectly insulated tonight by shortstop Masyn Winn's elite defense. Meanwhile, Arizona’s lineup is diluted without their normal core anchors, forcing less experienced hitters into high-leverage spots. St. Louis also holds a major tactical advantage on the basepaths against rookie catcher Adrian Del Castillo, who has allowed a weak 6.8% caught-stealing rate (2-for-29) this season, allowing the Cardinals to generate easy scoring opportunities. The late-inning bullpen situation further seals the edge for St. Louis. While Arizona has had to recall fresh arms like Juan Burgos just to survive a potentially short outing from Gallen, St. Louis intentionally rested their top high-leverage relievers during yesterday's blowout. Having their primary arms fully rested gives the Cardinals a massive advantage in the final third of the game. At a reasonable price of -132, the Cardinals are in a perfect position to exploit Gallen's road struggles, run wild on a vulnerable catcher, and secure a crucial home victory.

Cardinals ML-132

CONF

72%

MLB6:40 PM

Astros @ Tigers

Under the lights at Comerica Park, the Detroit Tigers host the Houston Astros in an American League clash where the pitching matchup on paper looks vastly different from what the underlying metrics suggest. The market is overpaying for Tatsuya Imai’s high-velocity profile and the Astros' brand name, giving us a bargain price on the Tigers at -110. While Troy Melton’s 2.56 ERA is running hot compared to his 3.8 xERA, he is an excellent contact manager who suppresses loud contact with a 36.8% hard-hit% allowed and a 6.3% barrel% allowed. More importantly, his reverse-split dominance against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .153 AVG, gives Detroit a critical weapon to neutralize Houston's most dangerous bat, Yordan Alvarez. Meanwhile, Imai is underperforming his 4.52 xERA with a bloated 6.15 ERA, but tonight he faces a situational nightmare. Imai struggles against lefties, allowing an .802 OPS, and the Tigers are loading the lineup with six lefties—including Kevin McGonigle and Riley Greene—who specifically match up well against his 95 mph 4-Seam Fastball. Beyond the starting pitching, the late-inning bullpen state heavily favors Detroit. Houston’s high-leverage arms are heavily taxed, with Josh Hader and Steven Okert having thrown in back-to-back games, making a clean bridge to the finish line highly questionable for the visitors. In contrast, Detroit’s backend of Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan is fully rested and ready to lock down the late frames. The strongest argument against the Tigers is their defensive instability, especially with a patchwork infield that has shown vulnerability this season. However, Melton’s ability to limit loud contact and the presence of Dillon Dingler behind the plate should minimize the defensive risk. Backing the home team with the better situational setup, the more rested high-leverage bullpen, and a lineup perfectly tailored to exploit the opposing starter's platoon flaws is the play. Take the Tigers on the moneyline.

Tigers ML-110

CONF

72%

MLB7:10 PM

Cubs @ Mets

We’ve got a beautiful evening for baseball at Citi Field, where the Chicago Cubs are looking to finish off a four-game sweep against a reeling New New York Mets squad. The market has priced this game as a pick’em, with the Mets at -106 and the Cubs at -110, expecting New York to stabilize behind Freddy Peralta. But the real story is the matchup on the field. The Cubs are absolutely rolling, having outscored the Mets 29-14 over the first three games of this series, and they possess a critical platoon advantage tonight that makes them the clear side to back. Chicago’s offense is averaging 4.9 runs per game with a .744 team OPS this season, and their lefty-heavy lineup—featuring Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Conforto, and Michael Busch at the top—profiles perfectly against Peralta. While Peralta is a talented strikeout pitcher (83 K in 85.2 IP) whose 3.83 xERA suggests his 4.83 ERA is a bit unlucky, his extreme platoon vulnerability is his undoing. Peralta allows a massive .813 OPS and 11 home runs to left-handed batters compared to a stingy .639 OPS and just 1 home run to right-handers. With an 11 mph wind blowing out to left field and Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson coming in red-hot with 15 RBIs in this series alone, the Cubs’ bats are in a prime position to jump on Peralta early. The strongest argument against the Cubs is their current pitching crisis, with starters Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown both landing on the injured list yesterday. This forces left-hander Matthew Boyd (6.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) to make his first start since May 3 on a strict pitch count. However, the Mets' offense is missing key depth with Marcus Semien landing on the injured list today with a hip injury, leaving their lineup thin. Furthermore, the Mets have a massive defensive liability behind the plate; catcher Francisco Alvarez has a poor -4 Blocks Above Average and a slow pop time, which will allow speedsters like Crow-Armstrong (.938 OPS in 12 AB at Citi Field) to run wild. Combine that with a Mets defense that has committed 51 errors and a heavily depleted bullpen, and the Cubs at -110 are the smartest play on the board to complete the sweep.

Cubs ML-110

CONF

78%

WC7:00 PM

Netherlands @ Tunisia

Arrowhead Stadium sets the stage for a final Group F showdown as the high-flying Netherlands looks to cement their spot in the knockout stage against a desperate Tunisia side. The public is going to look at Tunisia's recent results—getting run over 0-4 by Japan and 1-5 by Sweden—and blind-bet the Dutch at a massive number. But sharp bettors look at the tournament context. The Netherlands requires only a draw to advance, and more importantly, their key starting defenders—including Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Aké, and Denzel Dumfries—are all carrying yellow cards. One mistimed tackle leads to a Round of 32 suspension. The Dutch are highly motivated to avoid physical, high-risk duels, which will naturally lower their defensive intensity. Once they establish control, they will look to kill the game with possession rather than chase an unnecessary margin. The obvious case against this play is Tunisia's horrific defense, which has leaked 4.5 goals per match in this tournament, while the Dutch attack has been ruthless. But the market is overreacting to small-sample variance. The Dutch have scored 7 goals on just 1.69 xG per match, showing a clinical finishing rate that is bound to cool down. With Tunisia handing a start to Hazem Mastouri under Hervé Renard's rotated squad, they have fresh legs to keep things compact. Taking Tunisia +2.5 on the Asian handicap at -120 gives us a massive three-goal cushion on a bloated line where the favorite has every incentive to coast.

Tunisia +2.5-120

CONF

72%

WC7:00 PM

Netherlands @ Tunisia

Under the open skies of Kansas City, the Netherlands and Tunisia clash in a match where qualification safety and tactical management take center stage. The market has bloated this total to 3.5 because of the Dutch team's explosive start and Tunisia's defensive meltdown. However, the surface numbers are incredibly fragile. The Netherlands is averaging 3.5 goals per match in this tournament but doing so on a mere 1.69 xG per game, meaning the market is heavily overpaying for a hot finishing streak that is ripe for regression. On the other side, Tunisia's offense is practically non-existent, averaging a dismal 0.28 xG per match and managing only 1.67 shots on target. They will not contribute much, if anything, to this total. Skeptics will point to Tunisia's average of 4.5 goals conceded per match as a sign of an imminent blowout. But with the Netherlands needing only a draw to qualify and trying to protect four card-threatened starting defenders, they are going to play a low-tempo, low-risk brand of football. Expect the Dutch to build on their 85.17% pass completion rate and 50.67% possession to pass Tunisia to death, keeping the ball safe and conserving energy in the late-June heat. This will be a slow, professional, low-event match that stays comfortably Under the 3.5 line at -125.

Under 3.5-125

CONF

78%

WC7:00 PM

Sweden @ Japan

It is a high-stakes clash in Arlington as a depleted Japanese side meets a desperate, fully loaded Swedish squad under the roof of AT&T Stadium. The market is giving Japan a slight favorite's edge here, but that price is paying for a highly fragile situation. Japan enters this match severely depleted, missing four of its most prominent European-based stars: Takefusa Kubo, Wataru Endo, Kaoru Mitoma, and Takumi Minamino. This is not just minor squad rotation; it is the complete removal of Japan's midfield spine and creative engine. Sweden, conversely, is fully fit with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres leading an explosive strike force that is primed to exploit a weakened Japanese midfield. The tournament math heavily favors Sweden's motivation to perform. Japan sits comfortably on 4 points with a +4 goal differential, virtually guaranteed to advance to the knockout stage. Sweden has 3 points and a neutral 0 goal differential, meaning they must secure a result to guarantee progress and avoid tiebreaker chaos. With Wataru Endo missing from Japan's midfield, Sweden's physical, direct style of play will have an easier time carving out opportunities. Under the roof at AT&T Stadium, Sweden's physical edge on set pieces and direct transition will pose constant problems for Japan's understudies. The strongest argument against Sweden is Japan's elite tournament defensive process, holding opponents to just 1.0 goal per match on an elite 0.42 xGA/match. However, that defensive masterclass was built with Endo shielding the backline and Kubo helping control the flow of the game. Without their primary outlets and defensive anchor, Japan will struggle to keep Sweden pinned back. Trust the motivation and physical advantages of a fully fit Swedish side to get the job done and cover the handicap.

Sweden +0.5-145

CONF

82%

WC7:00 PM

Sweden @ Japan

A tactical chess match is set to unfold at AT&T Stadium as Japan's defensive discipline clashes with Sweden's need for a calculated result. The market has set this total at 2.5 goals, with the Under priced at -115, which presents a major value opportunity. Both teams have averaged 3.0 goals per match in this tournament, but those high-scoring figures are highly fragile. They are heavily inflated by blowout performances against Tunisia. The underlying metrics reveal a much tighter, lower-scoring reality, with Japan creating just 1.36 xG/match and Sweden managing 1.27 xG/match. With Japan missing Takefusa Kubo, Takumi Minamino, and Kaoru Mitoma, their offensive creation is heavily compromised. The tournament context strongly supports a low-scoring, cagey affair. With 4 points and a +4 goal differential, Japan has absolutely no incentive to play open, expansive football. They are highly likely to slow the game down and use their technical superiority (85.67% passing accuracy) to possess the ball and kill the clock. Sweden, while needing a result, cannot afford to commit too many men forward and risk a heavy defeat that would destroy their neutral goal difference. A controlled, low-risk approach from both sides is the most logical path, particularly in a climate-controlled stadium where fatigue won't force sloppy mistakes. The strongest argument against the Under is Sweden's highly volatile tournament defense, which has conceded 3.0 goals per match on a poor 1.98 xGA. However, Japan's heavily depleted midfield is ill-equipped to exploit these defensive gaps. Without Kubo and Minamino to pull the strings, Japan's remaining clinical attackers, like Ayase Ueda, will find themselves isolated and starved of service. Expect Japan's defensive organization to dictate the tempo and keep this game under the total.

Under 2.5-115

CONF

85%

WC10:00 PM

Australia @ Paraguay

It’s a high-stakes, winner-take-all showdown in Santa Clara as Paraguay and Australia battle at Levi’s Stadium with a spot in the World Cup knockout stage on the line. With the United States comfortably securing the top spot in Group D, these two nations are left to fight for the remaining automatic qualification slot. This matchup is completely dictated by tournament math and critical availability changes. Australia sits in second place with a neutral goal difference and knows that a single point guarantees them a second-place finish and automatic advancement. Because of this, the Socceroos have zero incentive to play an open, aggressive game. They will set up a low defensive block, a strategy supported by their impressive defensive stability this tournament, having conceded just twice and allowed a mere 1.22 expected goals against (xGA) per match over their last six fixtures. Paraguay, on the other hand, is desperate for a win to avoid the third-place wildcard lottery. However, their ability to break down a compact Australian block is severely compromised by the fresh suspension of their primary creative talisman, Miguel Almirón, who received a straight red card in their last match. Without Almirón’s pace and vertical movement, Paraguay's attack becomes incredibly blunt. While they shoot frequently, averaging 10.25 shots per match, their actual chance quality is highly inefficient, producing a meager 0.43 expected goals (xG) per match. The strongest argument against backing the Draw is Paraguay’s desperation, which might force them to throw caution to the wind and push numbers forward. However, Australia’s technical proficiency and defensive organization are fully equipped to absorb this pressure. The Socceroos will use their superior passing accuracy to slow the tempo and starve Paraguay of possession. At 130, the market has priced the Draw extremely short for a soccer match, signaling that the sportsbooks fully expect a low-tempo, structured stalemate. Australia will successfully frustrate Paraguay's toothless attack for 90 minutes to secure the point they need.

Draw+130

CONF

75%

WC10:00 PM

Australia @ Paraguay

Under the afternoon California sun, Levi’s Stadium plays host to a crucial Group D finale where defensive organization and sheer survival will take precedence over attacking flair. Both Paraguay and Australia enter this match with heavily depleted attacking units, setting the stage for an extremely low-scoring, cagey affair. This total is all about the devastating personnel losses on both sides of the ball. Paraguay must cope with the fresh suspension of Miguel Almirón, their primary offensive driver. Without his creative playmaking, a Paraguayan offense that already struggles to generate quality chances—averaging a tiny 0.43 expected goals (xG) per match—will find itself completely starved of service. On the other side, Australia's attacking roster is completely depleted; their top three goalscorers this cycle, Kusini Yengi, Mitchell Duke, and Craig Goodwin, are all out of the squad, while veteran Robbie Leckie is injured and Jackson Irvine is benched. With Mohamed Touré leading a highly rotated frontline, Australia lacks any real offensive cohesion. The strongest counter-argument to the Under is that Paraguay’s tournament desperation could lead to a frantic, open second half where defensive discipline is abandoned, opening up the game for goals. However, Australia's defensive structure is incredibly robust, allowing only 1.22 expected goals against (xGA) per match. Under manager Graham Arnold, the Socceroos will prioritize a clean sheet above all else, knowing a draw guarantees progression. They will happily sit deep and run down the clock. With Paraguay averaging a meager 0.43 xG and Australia generating just 0.76 xG per match, neither team has the firepower to break open this match. The market's line of 1.5 goals is exceptionally low, but getting Under 1.5 at plus-money (115) is an absolute steal given the tactical context and the massive offensive absences. Expect a cagey, physical battle that likely ends 0-0 or is decided by a single moment of individual quality.

Under 1.5+115

CONF

82%

WC10:00 PM

USA @ Türkiye

SoFi Stadium is bathed in late-afternoon California sun as Türkiye and the United States clash in a final Group D showdown with completely opposite agendas. This is a classic tournament spot where motivation and squad selection completely dictate the value. The USA has already clinched advancement and is resting four of their most critical starters—Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson—to protect them from yellow card suspensions, while Christian Pulisic is highly limited with a calf injury. Türkiye, on the other hand, is at absolute full strength, has zero injuries or suspensions, and must win to have any mathematical chance of reaching the Round of 32. The market is heavily overpaying for the USA’s fragile 2-0-0 tournament start, which was fueled by an unsustainable conversion rate of 3.0 goals per game on a meager 1.33 xG. Meanwhile, Türkiye has dominated play with 64.67% possession and 21 shots per match, yet they are enduring an extreme finishing slump with zero goals scored despite averaging 1.77 xG per match. Facing a backup American defense featuring Mark McKenzie and Auston Trusty playing together for the first time, Türkiye’s high-volume attack is primed for positive regression. Türkiye will play their strongest lineup, led by Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Arda Güler, and has all the incentive to control this match from the opening whistle. The strongest argument against backing Türkiye is the USA's formidable squad depth and pseudo-home advantage in Los Angeles. Even a rotated American lineup possesses high-level experience and will have the backing of a heavily pro-USA crowd. However, soccer is a game of chemistry, and removing the defensive security blanket of Adams and Robinson, combined with the loss of Balogun’s focal point up front, represents too steep a drop-off. Getting Türkiye at +0.5 on the Asian handicap at even money is an absolute gift in a match they are highly motivated to win against an opponent already looking ahead to the knockout rounds.

Türkiye +0.5+100

CONF

75%

WC10:00 PM

USA @ Türkiye

With the roof closed at SoFi Stadium, the tactical chess match of Group D's finale is set to unfold under controlled, climate-regulated conditions. This matchup features an elevated total of 3.5 goals, which is a massive overadjustment by the market. The USA is resting their leading striker Folarin Balogun and limiting Christian Pulisic, which severely handicaps their starting attacking threat. Without Tyler Adams in the midfield to break up play, the USA is highly likely to adopt a conservative, low-tempo, possession-retentive strategy designed to insulate their rotated backline, drag out the clock, and secure the single point they need to guarantee first place. On the other side, Türkiye has struggled immensely with efficiency in front of goal during this World Cup. Despite taking 21 shots and creating 1.77 xG per match, they have scored exactly zero goals in the tournament. While they should find more success against a reserve US defense, their structural issues in breaking down compact defensive blocks make a wild, high-scoring blowout highly unlikely. Türkiye's primary objective is to secure a win, not run up the score, and once they find a breakthrough, they are likely to tighten up defensively to protect their lead. The strongest counter-argument to the Under is that Türkiye's desperation will force them to commit bodies forward, leaving them highly vulnerable to quick transition moments from the USA's athletic backups. Furthermore, a reserve backline for the US could lead to individual errors that gift easy goals. However, a 3.5-goal line in a match where one team is playing for a low-risk draw with a rotated squad, and the other has yet to score a single goal in the tournament, is far too high. The market is pricing this total based on previous results rather than the reality of tonight's lineups. The under is the only professional play.

Under 3.5-175

CONF

80%

Player props

MLB HR · Royals @ Rays

Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero is in a prime position to exploit the statistical regression looming for Royals starter Seth Lugo. While Lugo's season ERA of 3.69 is respectable, his underlying metrics are alarming: he carries a 5.2 xERA and allows a high 10.3% Barrel rate alongside a 42.4% Hard-Hit rate.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

· Seth Lugo: 5.2 xERA vs 3.69 ERA (regression candidate)
· Lugo: 10.3% Barrel% and 42.4% Hard-Hit% allowed
· Junior Caminero: .980 OPS and 9 HR at home this season

MLB HR · Royals @ Rays

Jac Caglianone

Despite a challenging matchup against a Rays bullpen game, Jac Caglianone is currently the hottest power hitter in the Royals' lineup. Caglianone has hit 5 home runs in his last five games, demonstrating an elite ability to capitalize on mistake pitches.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340

· Jac Caglianone: 5 HR in his last five games (HR L5: [0, 2, 0, 2, 1])
· Caglianone: 14 HR in 75 games this season
· Royals lineup: Shorthanded (Witt Jr., Garcia, Pasquantino out) increasing Caglianone's volume responsibility

MLB · Mariners @ Pirates

Luke Raley

This is a clear-cut situational edge for Raley based on extreme platoon splits and environmental factors. Raley is a power specialist who does nearly all of his damage against righties, as evidenced by his 14 home runs against them this season compared to zero against lefties.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-135

· Luke Raley has 14 HR and an .830 OPS vs RHP this season.
· Bubba Chandler has allowed 7 of his 9 HR to left-handed hitters.
· Wind is blowing 10 mph out to LF (pull-side for the lefty Raley).

MLB · Mariners @ Pirates

Bryan Reynolds

Betting against a hitter as hot as Bryan Reynolds (.459 AVG in his last 10) is difficult, but the statistical wall he faces in Bryce Miller is even more formidable. Reynolds bats left-handed against righties, and Miller has been historically dominant against left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .155 batting average and a .454 OPS.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-165

· Bryce Miller allows a .155 AVG and .454 OPS to LHB this season.
· Bryce Miller has a 0.00 ERA in day games in 2026.
· Bryan Reynolds hits from the left side against right-handed pitchers.

MLB · Athletics @ Giants

Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt is currently the hottest hitter in the Giants' lineup, entering today with a .410 average over his last 10 games. He draws an elite matchup against Jeffrey Springs, a left-hander who has struggled significantly against right-handed power this season. Springs has allowed 15 of his 21 home runs to righties and carries a high 10.1% barrel rate allowed.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-124

· Schmitt is batting .410 (16-for-39) over his last 10 games.
· Jeffrey Springs allows a .861 OPS and has surrendered 15 HR to right-handed hitters this season.
· Springs has allowed 21 HR in 82.2 innings with a 10.1% barrel rate.

MLB · Athletics @ Giants

Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz faces a difficult individual matchup against Landen Roupp, who has been highly effective at suppressing left-handed hitters (.229 AVG). Roupp is a ground-ball specialist (1.55 GO/AO) who has allowed only 5 home runs in 80.1 innings, making it difficult for a power-dependent hitter like Kurtz to find extra-base hits.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

· Landen Roupp limits left-handed hitters to a .229 AVG and .691 OPS this season.
· Nick Kurtz has struck out 11 times in his last 5 games.
· The Athletics have scored 1 or 0 runs in three of their last four games.

WC · Germany @ Ecuador

Hernán Galíndez

Germany's offensive output in this tournament cycle has been relentless, averaging over 8 shots on target per match. While Ecuador's defense has been statistically stout (0.6 GA/match), the sheer volume of pressure Germany applies—evidenced by their 60.17% possession and 20.17 shots per game—creates a high floor for goalkeeper saves.

OVER 4 Saves-120

· Germany averages 8.33 shots on target per match in recent internationals.
· Germany has scored 9 goals in their first two matches of the 2026 World Cup.
· Germany averages 20.17 total shots and 60.17% possession.

WC · Germany @ Ecuador

Enner Valencia

Enner Valencia is the undisputed focal point of the Ecuadorian attack, and his role becomes even more pronounced in high-stakes scenarios. While his baseline of 1.87 shots per match is slightly below this line, tonight's context as a 'must-win' game for Ecuador creates a significant volume incentive.

OVER 3 Shots+110

· Valencia has recorded 28 shots in 15 caps (1.87/match baseline).
· Valencia is Ecuador's primary penalty and direct free-kick taker.
· Ecuador currently sits 3rd in Group E and likely needs a win to advance.

WC · Côte d'Ivoire @ Curaçao

Juninho Bacuna

Bacuna is the primary creative spark for Curaçao, but he is at the mercy of a squad that has been dominated in possession (31%) throughout the group stage. Against an Ivorian side that utilizes a physical midfield and maintains a high level of ball control (87% pass accuracy), Curaçao will struggle to transition effectively.

UNDER 1.5 Shots-115

· Curaçao 31% possession in 2026 World Cup games
· Côte d'Ivoire 87% team pass accuracy in recent matches
· Juninho Bacuna 1.9 shots/gm season average vs lower competition

WC · Côte d'Ivoire @ Curaçao

Kenji Gorré

While Gorré is an active winger, his efficiency in high-pressure tournament play is a major concern. Curaçao as a team has struggled to test opposing keepers, averaging just 2.67 shots on target per match.

UNDER 0.5 Shots On Target-105

· Curaçao averaging 2.67 shots on target per match in 2026 World Cup
· Côte d'Ivoire 0.9 GA/match over last 10 internationals
· Kenji Gorré 2.0 shots/gm with low conversion to SOT

MLB · Astros @ Tigers

Kevin McGonigle

The most significant statistical outlier in this matchup is Tatsuya Imai's lack of control, specifically against left-handed hitters. Imai is walking batters at a high 5.27 per nine-inning clip, and 71% of his total walks this season have been issued to lefties. Kevin McGonigle, Detroit's leadoff hitter and primary table-setter, is a disciplined left-handed bat who will be the first to exploit Imai's shaky command. Batting at the top of the order ensures McGonigle sees the maximum number of plate appearances, maximizing the probability of him drawing at least one free pass from a pitcher who has struggled all year to find the zone against left-handed competition.

OVER 0.5 Walks-122

· Tatsuya Imai: 5.27 BB/9 (24 BB in 41.0 IP)
· Imai Platoon: 17 of 24 walks allowed to LHB
· McGonigle: Bats Left, .816 season OPS

MLB · Astros @ Tigers

Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez is in a prime position to trigger the statistical regression Troy Melton has avoided thus far. Despite a sub-3 ERA, Melton’s 3.80 xERA and fly-ball profile (0.95 GO/AO) suggest vulnerability, especially considering he has surrendered 5 of his 6 home runs to left-handed hitters.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+110

· Troy Melton: 3.80 xERA vs 2.56 actual ERA
· Melton Platoon: 5 of 6 HR allowed to LHB
· Yordan Alvarez: 1.117 OPS vs RHP this season

MLB · Phillies @ Nationals

Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh is in a prime position to exploit a significant platoon mismatch. He hits right-handed pitching at a .340 clip, while Cade Cavalli allows a .303 average to left-handed bats. Marsh is currently batting 4th in a Phillies lineup that leads MLB in slugging over the past week. With 85-degree weather and 14 mph winds blowing out to center, Marsh's gap-to-gap power is likely to produce multiple total bases, especially considering his historical success (.538 AVG) in this stadium.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+112

· Marsh .340 AVG vs RHP
· Cavalli .303 AVG allowed to LHB
· Marsh .538 AVG at Nationals Park

MLB · Phillies @ Nationals

James Wood

James Wood faces the most difficult lefty-on-lefty matchup in the National League. Cristopher Sanchez has neutralized left-handed hitters all season, holding them to a .147 average and allowing just one home run in 102 at-bats. Wood is currently struggling with contact, striking out 10 times in his last four games and recording only two hits in his last 21 at-bats. Even with favorable wind conditions, Sanchez's 1.65 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio makes it extremely difficult for Wood to find the extra-base hits needed to clear this line.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-179

· Sanchez .359 OPS allowed to LHB
· Wood 2-for-21 in last 5 games
· Wood 10 Ks in last 4 games

MLB · Rangers @ Blue Jays

Kazuma Okamoto

Kazuma Okamoto enters this series opener as the Blue Jays' most productive power threat, leading the team with 17 home runs. Over his last 10 games, he has found a rhythm, batting .294 with three home runs and recording multi-base games in three of his last four outings (3, 6, and 4 total bases).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

· Kazuma Okamoto L10: .294 AVG, 3 HR
· MacKenzie Gore Road ERA: 5.75
· Okamoto cleared 1.5 TB in 3 of his last 4 games

MLB · Rangers @ Blue Jays

Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk has struggled to find any consistency in limited action this year, batting just .191 through 47 at-bats. Over his last five games, he has failed to record multiple total bases in a single contest, finishing with 1 or 0 total bases in each.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-190

· Alejandro Kirk Season AVG: .191
· Kirk 0-for-last-5 on Total Bases 1.5 line
· MacKenzie Gore vs RHB: .211 AVG allowed

MLB · Cubs @ Mets

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently the most productive hitter in the National League, carrying a 10-game hitting streak and a .463 average over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he draws a premier matchup against Freddy Peralta, whose season has been defined by a massive platoon disadvantage.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-105

· Pete Crow-Armstrong: .463 AVG and 6 HR in last 10 games.
· Freddy Peralta: .813 OPS and 11 of 12 HR allowed against left-handed hitters.
· Break-even probability: 51.2% (-105).

MLB · Cubs @ Mets

Bo Bichette

While the Mets have struggled as a team, Bo Bichette has been a consistent outlier, hitting .372 over his last 10 games with multi-hit performances in six of those contests. He faces LHP Matthew Boyd, who is returning from the IL and has shown extreme vulnerability to right-handed bats, allowing a .794 OPS and a dangerous 50.8% hard-hit rate. Boyd is a fly-ball-leaning pitcher (0.90 GO/AO), which plays directly into the hitting environment tonight where wind is blowing 11 mph out to left field. Bichette's high contact rate and current form make him the most likely Met to exploit Boyd's high hard-hit allowance.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

· Bo Bichette: .372 AVG (16-for-43) in last 10 games.
· Matthew Boyd: 50.8% Hard-hit rate allowed; .794 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters.
· Break-even probability: 50.0% (+100).

MLB · Yankees @ Red Sox

Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt has been an absolute force against left-handed pitching this season, making this total bases line of 1.5 look conservative. He is slashing an incredible .408 AVG with a 1.304 OPS and 8 home runs in only 76 at-bats against southpaws.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-103

· .408 AVG / 1.304 OPS against LHP this season
· 8 HR in just 76 AB vs Lefties
· Break-even probability: 50.7% (-103)

MLB · Yankees @ Red Sox

Willson Contreras

While Willson Contreras is arguably Boston's most dangerous hitter, he faces the most difficult matchup in the American League tonight in Cam Schlittler. Schlittler, the Cy Young frontrunner, is essentially a 'no-go' zone for right-handed batters, holding them to a microscopic .175 batting average and a .474 OPS.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI-115

· Cam Schlittler allows a .175 AVG and .474 OPS to right-handed hitters
· Contreras is hitless in his last 2 games (0-for-7)
· Break-even probability: 53.5% (-115)

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Cardinals

Alec Burleson

This is a textbook mismatch between a pitcher in a severe slump and a hitter dominating the platoon. Zac Gallen's season-long struggles against lefties (.345 AVG allowed) have intensified in June, as evidenced by his 8.88 ERA over his last five starts.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

· Zac Gallen allows a .345 AVG and .924 OPS to LHB this season.
· Alec Burleson bats .335 with a 1.015 OPS against right-handed pitching.
· Gallen has an 8.88 ERA over his last 5 starts, including 9 ER in his last outing.

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Cardinals

Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte is currently the hottest hitter in the Diamondbacks' lineup, hitting .359 over his last 10 games. He faces Michael McGreevy, whose surface-level ERA (3.35) masks significant underlying issues; McGreevy's xERA is more than two runs higher at 5.7, indicating he is a major regression candidate. Marte's multi-hit proficiency and his success at Busch Stadium (1.121 OPS) provide a high floor for production. As the leadoff hitter, he is guaranteed maximum plate appearances, and with Arizona averaging 4.3 runs per game, he is in a prime position to contribute hits, runs, and RBIs against a pitcher who has relied more on luck than elite stuff (5.7 K/9) this season.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-150

· Ketel Marte is hitting .359 (14-for-39) over his last 10 games.
· Marte has a career 1.121 OPS in a small sample at Busch Stadium.
· Michael McGreevy carries a 5.7 xERA, suggesting significant regression is imminent.

WC · Netherlands @ Tunisia

Tijjani Reijnders

Reijnders has consistently functioned as a high-volume shooter from the midfield for the Dutch, recording six shots across his last three international appearances. This matchup plays directly into his strengths, as Tunisia's defensive structure has been passive, allowing opponents to dictate pace and territory.

OVER 3 Shots-130

· Tijjani Reijnders: 6 shots in 3 caps (2.0 per match average)
· Netherlands: 50.67% possession average vs Tunisia: 41% average
· Implied Probability: 56.5% (-130 odds)

WC · Netherlands @ Tunisia

Cody Gakpo

Gakpo has been the most clinical finisher for the Netherlands in this international cycle, tallying two goals in four appearances. He enters this match in excellent form and serves as a primary set-piece taker, which increases his opportunities for high-probability scoring chances against a Tunisia defense that has completely collapsed in this tournament.

OVER 1 Anytime Goal-110

· Cody Gakpo: 2 goals in 4 caps during the current cycle
· Tunisia: Conceded 9 goals in 2 World Cup matches (0-4 vs Japan, 1-5 vs Sweden)
· Implied Probability: 52.4% (-110 odds)

WC · Sweden @ Japan

Ayase Ueda

Ayase Ueda has been the most clinical finisher in the Japanese squad, tallying 8 goals in 9 caps during this international cycle. He faces a Swedish defense that has been uncharacteristically porous, surrendering 2.2 goals per match over their last 10, including a 1-5 loss to the Netherlands.

OVER 1 Anytime Goal+190

· 8 goals in 9 international caps during this cycle
· Sweden allowing 2.2 goals per match recently
· Market implied probability: 34.4%

WC · Sweden @ Japan

Zion Suzuki

Zion Suzuki is positioned for high volume tonight as Sweden faces a virtual must-win scenario to advance. Sweden averages 11.67 shots and 5.67 shots on target per match.

OVER 3 Saves-120

· Sweden averages 5.67 shots on target per match
· Sweden must-win game context will drive volume
· Market implied probability: 54.5%

WC · Sweden @ Japan

Ayase Ueda

This pick correlates with Ueda's scoring potential. He averages 2.55 shots per match in this international cycle, placing him exactly on the line of his season-long performance.

OVER 2.5 Shots-122

· 2.55 shots per match average (23 shots in 9 caps)
· Sweden conceding 11.67 shots per match
· Market implied probability: 54.9%

MLB HR · Yankees @ Red Sox

Ben Rice

Ben Rice is currently 5th in the American League with 22 home runs, showcasing elite power that translates well to the hitter-friendly environment of Fenway Park. The weather conditions tonight are a major factor, with 85-degree temperatures and a 3 mph wind blowing out toward the Green Monster, which significantly aids fly balls.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

· 22 HR in 74 games (0.30 HR/G)
· 85°F temperature with 3 mph wind out to LF at Fenway
· Connelly Early 0.84 GO/AO (Fly-ball pitcher)

MLB HR · Phillies @ Nationals

Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber returns to the starting lineup in a 'perfect storm' scenario for his power profile. He faces Cade Cavalli, a right-hander who has struggled significantly with command and contact against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .303 average and a .806 OPS to that side of the plate.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+320

· Kyle Schwarber: 29 HR in 76 games (leading Phillies)
· Cade Cavalli vs LHB: .303 AVG, .806 OPS allowed
· Weather: 85°F, 14 mph wind blowing OUT to center field

MLB HR · Rangers @ Blue Jays

Kazuma Okamoto

For the 'Gary Special,' Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run at +370 offers significant value based on the pitching matchup. MacKenzie Gore is a fly-ball pitcher (0.68 GO/AO) who consistently gives up loud contact, evidenced by his 45.6% Hard-hit rate and 8.8% Barrel rate allowed. While Gore has suppressed batting average against right-handed hitters, his home run distribution is telling: he has surrendered seven home runs to righties this season compared to just one to lefties.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+370

· Kazuma Okamoto 17 home runs in 78 games this season
· MacKenzie Gore 0.68 GO/AO (Fly-ball leaning) profile
· Gore 45.6% Hard-hit rate allowed in 2026

MLB HR · Cubs @ Mets

Pete Crow-Armstrong

This pick doubles down on the strongest matchup factor in the game: Peralta's inability to keep the ball in the park against lefties. Crow-Armstrong is currently pulling the ball with authority, and the wind direction tonight specifically aids left-handed hitters who can get the ball into the air. With PCA hitting at a .463 clip and Peralta struggling to find his command (18 runs allowed in June), the rookie is in a perfect spot to add to his season total of 17 homers. Both props move together: if PCA is hitting well enough for total bases, the home run is the natural ceiling for that production.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

· 6 HR in last 10 games
· Peralta has surrendered 11 of 12 HR to left-handed hitters
· Wind blowing 11 mph OUT to LF power alley

WC · Australia @ Paraguay

Julio Enciso

This is a 'Gary Special' addition that correlates with the shots-on-target pick for Paraguay's most active attacker. Julio Enciso's international baseline of 1.7 shots per cap already sits above this 1.5 line, and the context of a do-or-die World Cup fixture typically amplifies shot volume for a team's primary playmaker.

OVER 1.5 Shots-155

· Julio Enciso: 1.7 shots per cap baseline (17 in 10 caps)
· Paraguay: 10.25 shots per match team average (last 6)
· Game Context: Paraguay must win to advance from Group D

WC · Australia @ Paraguay

Julio Enciso

Paraguay enters this match in a high-leverage scenario, currently sitting 3rd in Group D and needing a victory to ensure advancement. Julio Enciso is the primary creative engine and volume shooter for the Paraguayan side, recording 17 shots in 10 caps (1.7 per match).

OVER 0.5 Shots On Target-125

· Julio Enciso: 1.7 shots per cap average (17 in 10 caps)
· Paraguay: 10.25 shots and 4.25 SOT per match average
· Australia: sits in deep defensive block (36% possession)

WC · USA @ Türkiye

Matt Turner

Matt Turner faces a Türkiye side that has been the tournament's most aggressive, albeit inefficient, attacking unit. Averaging a massive 21.0 shots and 5.67 shots on target per match over their last six internationals, Türkiye's 'shoot on sight' mentality is a direct driver for goalkeeper save volume.

OVER 3 Saves-145

· Türkiye average 21.0 shots per match (last 6)
· Türkiye average 5.67 shots on target per match (last 6)
· Break-even probability: 59.1% (-145)

WC · USA @ Türkiye

Orkun Kökçü

Orkun Kökçü has established a consistent shooting floor in this tournament, recording 3 shots across his two starts (1.5 per match). The market is currently pricing him at +145 to hit that exact average, which represents significant value given Türkiye's desperate situation.

OVER 1.5 Shots+145

· Kökçü has 3 shots in 2 tournament caps (1.5 per match)
· Türkiye average 21.0 shots per match as a team
· Break-even probability: 40.8% (+145)

Hub research

142

platoon_edgeNYY @ BOS
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.304 OPS, 76 AB) sits well above his .665 mark the other way (116 AB). Tonight's starter Connelly Early throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeARI @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Zac Gallen (RHP)
Over 209 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a 1.015 OPS versus .449 in 93 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zac Gallen tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
heat_checkCHC @ NYM
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.399 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 54 PA: a 1.399 OPS versus .886 for the season, 0.513 above his norm. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
starter_formOAK @ SF
Jeffrey Springs: 12.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 12.08 ERA over his last 12.7 innings with a 1.97 WHIP (1.35 season) — the 5.55 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
streakingHOU @ DET
DET games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Detroit Tigers games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 7 runs a night against an average line of 7.5. Tonight's number sits at 9.
P final total 3 vs 9
streakNED @ TUN
Netherlands are unbeaten in 7 internationals
Their last 5 at the World Cup read W-D-D-W-W — a 3-2-0 record and a 7-match unbeaten run.
P team won 3-1
starter_formCHC @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 11.20 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (13.7 IP) he has been tagged for 17 earned runs — a 11.20 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP (1.39 season) against a 4.83 season mark.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Nationals
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber is currently in a peak power phase, having launched 5 home runs over his last 10 games, including a three-homer performance recently. He faces Cade Cavalli, a right-hander who has struggled significantly with platoon disadvantages, allowing a .303 batting average to left-handed hitters this season.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCHC @ NYM
Bo Bichette: 1.067 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.067 OPS spans the last 15 days (58 PA) against a .688 season baseline, a 0.379 swing. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ WSH
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (1.030 OPS, 168 AB) sits well above his .648 mark the other way (112 AB). Tonight's starter Cade Cavalli throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsYankees @ Red Sox
Ben Rice
Ben Rice is currently 5th in the American League with 22 home runs, showcasing elite power that translates well to the hitter-friendly environment of Fenway Park. The weather conditions tonight are a major factor, with 85-degree temperatures and a 3 mph wind blowing out toward the Green Monster, which significantly aids fly balls.
P 0 HR — 0-for-5, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Nationals
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper thrives in right-handed matchups, as evidenced by his 1.030 OPS and 14 of his 17 home runs coming against RHP this season. He faces Cade Cavalli, whose primary statistical vulnerability is against left-handed bats (.303 AVG allowed).
P 1 HR — 2-for-3, 5 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Rays
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero is in a prime position to exploit the statistical regression looming for Royals starter Seth Lugo. While Lugo's season ERA of 3.69 is respectable, his underlying metrics are alarming: he carries a 5.2 xERA and allows a high 10.3% Barrel rate alongside a 42.4% Hard-Hit rate.
P 3 HR — 3-for-5, 12 TB
rest_fatigueATL @ SD
18 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 18 innings over the last 3 games (Lucas Giolito (4) and Yuki Matsui (3.3) the heaviest). ATL's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-5
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Rays
Jac Caglianone
Despite a challenging matchup against a Rays bullpen game, Jac Caglianone is currently the hottest power hitter in the Royals' lineup. Caglianone has hit 5 home runs in his last five games, demonstrating an elite ability to capitalize on mistake pitches.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeSEA @ PIT
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Bryce Miller (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .915 OPS vs. Right (206 AB) against .614 the other way (83 AB), and faces RHP Bryce Miller from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
heat_checkNYY @ BOS
Caleb Durbin: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 42 PA: a 1.046 OPS versus .636 for the season, 0.41 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCHC @ NYM
Mark Vientos (bats R) hits 4th against Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Over 80 AB vs. Left, Mark Vientos owns a .879 OPS versus .529 in 138 AB the other way. He sees LHP Matthew Boyd tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
running_gameSEA @ PIT
Seattle Mariners like to run — Henry Davis (57% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis owns a 57% caught-stealing rate (12 of 21) and Seattle Mariners run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
xg_regressionSWE @ JPN
Sweden are finishing above their chances
Sweden are scoring 3.0/match on 1.2 xG — 1.8 goals/match above expected across 2 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
xg_regressionNED @ TUN
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 3.5/match on 1.6 xG — 1.9 goals/match above expected across 2 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
rest_fatigueTEX @ TOR
TEX's pen has logged 16 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 16 innings out of the pen — Kumar Rocker (5) and Jose Corniell (3.3) carried the load. TOR's pen has thrown 14 over the same span.
P flagged side won 6-5
xg_regressionUSA @ TUR
Türkiye have created more than they've scored
Türkiye are scoring 0.0/match on 1.7 xG — 1.7 goals/match below expected across 2 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
gary_hr_threatsCubs @ Mets
Pete Crow-Armstrong
This pick doubles down on the strongest matchup factor in the game: Peralta's inability to keep the ball in the park against lefties. Crow-Armstrong is currently pulling the ball with authority, and the wind direction tonight specifically aids left-handed hitters who can get the ball into the air.
P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 3 TB
gary_hr_threatsRangers @ Blue Jays
Kazuma Okamoto
For the 'Gary Special,' Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run at +370 offers significant value based on the pitching matchup. MacKenzie Gore is a fly-ball pitcher (0.68 GO/AO) who consistently gives up loud contact, evidenced by his 45.6% Hard-hit rate and 8.8% Barrel rate allowed.
P 1 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
ownedTEX @ TOR
Corey Seager vs Kevin Gausman: .440
Corey Seager has gone 11-for-25 (.440) across 25 career at-bats off Kevin Gausman, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters hot (.856 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsMariners @ Pirates
Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh is the optimal power target in this matchup against Bubba Chandler. Chandler has been highly susceptible to the long ball this season, surrendering 9 home runs and maintaining a 7.6% barrel rate allowed.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkPHI @ WSH
Nasim Nunez: 1.016 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 39 PA: a 1.016 OPS versus .602 for the season, 0.414 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
xg_regressionGER @ ECU
Ecuador have created more than they've scored
Ecuador are scoring 0.0/match on 2.0 xG — 2.0 goals/match below expected across 2 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
heat_checkSEA @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds: 1.204 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (50 PA) he is at a 1.204 OPS, up 0.314 on his .890 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkKC @ TB
Carter Jensen: 1.049 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a 1.049 OPS, up 0.307 on his .742 season mark. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
cooling_offARI @ STL
Jordan Walker: .635 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Zac Gallen
Jordan Walker's .635 OPS over the last 15 days (57 PA) trails his .864 season mark, down 0.229. Tonight he draws RHP Zac Gallen — his weaker side: a .826 OPS vs RHP across 228 AB.
rest_fatiguePHI @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 15.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (4) and Miles Mikolas (3.3). PHI's pen has thrown 13.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 10-5
starter_formTEX @ TOR
Kevin Gausman: 7.71 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14 IP) he has been tagged for 12 earned runs — a 7.71 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP (1.13 season) against a 4.04 season mark.
P 6 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
heat_checkOAK @ SF
Lawrence Butler: 1.025 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.025 OPS spans the last 15 days (32 PA) against a .584 season baseline, a 0.441 swing.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
platoon_edgeATL @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr. (bats R) draws Martin Perez (LHP), batting 1st
Fernando Tatis Jr. carries a .894 OPS vs. Left (60 AB) against .675 the other way (237 AB), and faces LHP Martin Perez from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
park_weatherPHI @ WSH
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Nationals Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Nationals Park — Partly Cloudy, 85°, wind 14 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 15 vs 8.5 (over lean)
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +370
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +370. Spain (+500) and Argentina (+600) are the next shortest.
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +360
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +360. Spain (+500) and Argentina (+600) are the next shortest.
heat_checkATL @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.: .972 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (55 PA) he is at a .972 OPS, up 0.253 on his .719 season mark.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeATL @ SD
Eli White (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Eli White's vs. Left line (.797 OPS, 53 AB) sits well above his .467 mark the other way (45 AB). Tonight's starter JP Sears throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakingNYY @ BOS
BOS have lost 4 straight
4 losses in a row for BOS, a -11 run margin across the slide — they limp in 2-4 over their last 6.
P team won 3-6
heat_checkATL @ SD
Manny Machado: .905 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .905 OPS spans the last 15 days (52 PA) against a .645 season baseline, a 0.26 swing. He has 14 home runs on the season.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
streakGER @ ECU
Germany are unbeaten in 4 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 3-1-1 (W-W-W-D-L), carrying a 4-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team lost 1-2
tournamentCIV @ CUW
Curaçao vs Côte d'Ivoire — Group E at stake
In Group E, Curaçao sit 4th on 1 point and Côte d'Ivoire sit 2nd on 3 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Curaçao are 2500-1 outsiders, Côte d'Ivoire are 120-1 outsiders. The market has it Curaçao +1500 / the draw +700 / Côte d'Ivoire -575.
tournamentNED @ TUN
What Tunisia vs Netherlands decides
In Group F, Tunisia sit 4th on 0 points and Netherlands sit 1st on 4 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Tunisia are 1500-1 outsiders. The market has it Tunisia +2500 / the draw +1000 / Netherlands -1000.
tournamentSWE @ JPN
Japan vs Sweden: the group picture
In Group F, Japan sit 2nd on 4 points and Sweden sit 3rd on 3 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Japan are 40-1 outsiders, Sweden are 150-1 outsiders. The market has it Japan -110 / the draw +245 / Sweden +320.
heat_checkTEX @ TOR
Wyatt Langford: 1.035 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.035 OPS spans the last 15 days (59 PA) against a .799 season baseline, a 0.236 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
tournamentGER @ ECU
Ecuador vs Germany: the group picture
In Group E, Ecuador sit 3rd on 1 point and Germany sit 1st on 6 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Ecuador are 200-1 outsiders, Germany are the No. 7 title choice at +1300. The market has it Ecuador +400 / the draw +370 / Germany -175.
streakingCHC @ NYM
NYM games have gone OVER 4 straight
New York Mets games have gone OVER 4 straight — 13 runs a night against an average line of 11.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 7 vs 8.5
tournamentAUS @ PAR
Paraguay vs Australia — Group D at stake
In Group D, Paraguay sit 3rd on 3 points and Australia sit 2nd on 3 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Paraguay are 350-1 outsiders, Australia are 200-1 outsiders. The market has it Paraguay +165 / the draw +130 / Australia +330.
tournamentUSA @ TUR
What Türkiye vs USA decides
In Group D, Türkiye sit 4th on 0 points and USA sit 1st on 6 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Türkiye are 130-1 outsiders, USA are 33-1 outsiders. The market has it Türkiye +280 / the draw +300 / USA -115.
streakSWE @ JPN
Japan are unbeaten in 4 internationals
Their last 5 at the World Cup read W-D-D-W-L — a 2-2-1 record and a 4-match unbeaten run.
P team drew 1-1
starter_formARI @ STL
Zac Gallen: 9.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15.3 IP) he has been tagged for 16 earned runs — a 9.39 ERA with a 2.09 WHIP (1.63 season) against a 6.10 season mark.
platoon_edgeTEX @ TOR
George Springer (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
George Springer's vs. Left line (.833 OPS, 57 AB) sits well above his .644 mark the other way (167 AB). Tonight's starter MacKenzie Gore throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatigueCHC @ NYM
NYM's bullpen has covered 14.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Cionel Perez (2.3) and Tobias Myers (2). CHC's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-3
regression_watchARI @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 3.35 ERA vs 5.7 xERA
Michael McGreevy carries a 3.35 ERA against a 5.7 expected ERA (2.35 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .243 off him vs a .294 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
gary_hr_threatsMariners @ Pirates
Brandon Lowe
Despite Bryce Miller's elite season, Brandon Lowe represents the most significant home run threat in the Pirates' lineup with 18 blasts this year. Miller is a fly-ball leaning pitcher (0.75 ground-ball to air-ball ratio), which plays directly into the hands of a high-launch angle hitter like Lowe in favorable hitting weather.
P 1 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
xg_recapGHA @ ENG
England out-created the field but only drew
England won the xG battle 1.3–0.3 yet were held to a draw (0–0). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
rest_fatigueHOU @ DET
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Logan VanWey (3) and Enyel De Los Santos (2.7) the heaviest). DET's pen has thrown 9.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-1
platoon_edgeKC @ TB
Jonathan Aranda (bats L) hits 2nd against Seth Lugo (RHP)
Over 189 AB vs. Right, Jonathan Aranda owns a .903 OPS versus .686 in 88 AB the other way. He sees RHP Seth Lugo tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
regression_tomorrowCOL @ MIN
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.31 ERA vs 6.98 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIN. A 4.31 ERA against a 6.98 expected ERA (2.67 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .262 vs .309 expected.
platoon_edgeOAK @ SF
Nick Kurtz (bats L) hits 2nd against Tyler Mahle (RHP)
Over 182 AB vs. Right, Nick Kurtz owns a 1.052 OPS versus .848 in 101 AB the other way. He sees RHP Tyler Mahle tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchOAK @ SF
Henry Bolte: .308 AVG vs .234 xBA
Across 138 plate appearances, Henry Bolte carries a .308 average versus a .234 xBA. His wOBA sits at .363 against a .316 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
park_weatherHOU @ DET
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Comerica Park tonight
Conditions at Comerica Park: Partly Cloudy, 71°, wind 13 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.
P final total 3 vs 9 (over lean)
cooling_offTEX @ TOR
Ezequiel Duran: .526 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Ezequiel Duran's .526 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .745 season mark, down 0.219. Tonight he draws RHP Kevin Gausman — his weaker side: a .744 OPS vs RHP across 190 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offOAK @ SF
Shea Langeliers: .610 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Mahle
Shea Langeliers's .610 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .848 season mark, down 0.238. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Mahle — his weaker side: a .780 OPS vs RHP across 216 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
cooling_offTEX @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .465 OPS in L15 — draws LHP MacKenzie Gore
Ernie Clement's .465 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .750 season mark, down 0.285. Tonight he draws LHP MacKenzie Gore — his weaker side: a .732 OPS vs LHP across 85 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgeKC @ TB
Chandler Simpson (bats L) draws Seth Lugo (RHP), batting 5th
Chandler Simpson carries a .696 OPS vs. Right (184 AB) against .461 the other way (91 AB), and faces RHP Seth Lugo from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
cooling_offNYY @ BOS
Ben Rice: .780 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Connelly Early
Ben Rice's .780 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .972 season mark, down 0.192. Tonight he draws LHP Connelly Early — his weaker side: a .819 OPS vs LHP across 93 AB.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
heat_checkTEX @ TOR
George Springer: .943 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a .943 OPS versus .693 for the season, 0.25 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
advancementAUS @ PAR
Australia and Paraguay both set to advance from Group D
The market has Australia all but through to reach the last 16 at -1400 (2nd, 3 pts). Paraguay are -800 (3rd, 3 pts) to join them.
heat_checkKC @ TB
Jac Caglianone: 1.020 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (58 PA) he is at a 1.020 OPS, up 0.186 on his .834 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftKC @ TB
Casey Legumina owns a 1.64 ERA at Tropicana Field — 4.43 everywhere else
Across 10 games (11 IP) at this venue, Casey Legumina has a 1.64 ERA against 4.43 at his other parks (20.3 IP). Hitters bat .220 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
streakCIV @ CUW
Curaçao are winless in 3 internationals
Their last 3 at the World Cup read L-D-L — a 0-1-2 record and a 3-match run without a win.
P team lost 2-0
platoon_edgeSEA @ PIT
Nick Gonzales (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Nick Gonzales's vs. Right line (.779 OPS, 202 AB) sits well above his .574 mark the other way (77 AB). Tonight's starter Bryce Miller throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
tournamentGROUP E
Germany are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
Germany are -100000 to win Group E — the shortest group-winner price on the day. The next side in Group E, Côte d'Ivoire, is out at +165.
cooling_offATL @ SD
Matt Olson: .673 OPS in L15 — draws LHP JP Sears
Matt Olson's .673 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .870 season mark, down 0.197. Tonight he draws LHP JP Sears — his weaker side: a .848 OPS vs LHP across 141 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at +260 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
park_weatherCHC @ NYM
Wind blowing out 12 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Partly Cloudy, 76°, wind 12 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 6.5.
P final total 7 vs 6.5 (over lean)
cooling_offPHI @ WSH
Jacob Young: .389 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cristopher Sanchez
Jacob Young's .389 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .648 season mark, down 0.259. Tonight he draws LHP Cristopher Sanchez — his weaker side: a .612 OPS vs LHP across 68 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
regression_watchPHI @ WSH
Dylan Crews: .212 AVG vs .264 xBA
Dylan Crews's .212 average comes against a .264 expected (xBA) on 124 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .273 against a .332 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB
regression_watchCHC @ NYM
Matthew Boyd: 6 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Matthew Boyd carries a 6 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (1.72 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .266 off him vs a .258 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
cooling_offHOU @ DET
Christian Walker: .550 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Troy Melton
Christian Walker's .550 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .773 season mark, down 0.223. Tonight he draws RHP Troy Melton — his stronger side: a .784 OPS vs RHP across 238 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeOAK @ SF
Matt Chapman (bats R) hits 1st against Gage Jump (LHP)
Over 70 AB vs. Left, Matt Chapman owns a .810 OPS versus .680 in 214 AB the other way. He sees LHP Gage Jump tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
ballpark_shiftHOU @ DET
Troy Melton owns a 4.09 ERA at Comerica Park — 1.74 everywhere else
Across 2 games (11 IP) at this venue, Troy Melton has a 4.09 ERA against 1.74 at his other parks (20.7 IP). Hitters bat .220 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
ballpark_shiftTEX @ TOR
Kevin Gausman's ERA drops to 3.10 at Rogers Centre
Kevin Gausman carries a 3.10 ERA over 9 games (52.3 IP) at tonight's park vs 5.40 across 36.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .216 off him here. He starts here tonight.
P 6 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
starter_formPHI @ WSH
Cade Cavalli: 6.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.39 ERA over his last 12.7 innings with a 1.66 WHIP (1.46 season) — the 4.07 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
ballpark_shiftARI @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 2.25 ERA
Michael McGreevy starts at Busch Stadium tonight, where his ERA is 2.25 over 40 innings — 4.36 on a 43.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .219 off him here.
regression_tomorrowARI @ TB
Nick Martinez: 2.73 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 2.73 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (1.88 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .253 vs .282 expected.
ballpark_shiftNYY @ BOS
At Fenway Park, Connelly Early pitches to a 4.82 ERA
Connelly Early starts at Fenway Park tonight, where his ERA is 4.82 over 37.3 innings — 2.64 on a 44.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .269 off him here.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
regression_watchCHC @ NYM
Nico Hoerner: .241 AVG vs .292 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .241 against a .292 expected average (xBA) over 356 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .298 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchHOU @ DET
Tatsuya Imai: 6.15 ERA vs 4.52 xERA
Tatsuya Imai carries a 6.15 ERA against a 4.52 expected ERA (1.63 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .230 off him vs a .229 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
regression_watchOAK @ SF
Lawrence Butler: .192 AVG vs .243 xBA
Across 215 plate appearances, Lawrence Butler carries a .192 average versus a .243 xBA. His wOBA sits at .260 against a .306 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
regression_watchKC @ TB
Seth Lugo: 3.69 ERA vs 5.2 xERA
Seth Lugo carries a 3.69 ERA against a 5.2 expected ERA (1.51 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .269 off him vs a .277 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
cooling_offOAK @ SF
Willy Adames: .508 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Gage Jump
Willy Adames's .508 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .694 season mark, down 0.186. Tonight he draws LHP Gage Jump — his weaker side: a .536 OPS vs LHP across 74 AB.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueSEA @ PIT
PIT's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Carmen Mlodzinski (3) and Yohan Ramirez (2) carried the load. SEA's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-5
regression_watchATL @ SD
Manny Machado: .184 AVG vs .229 xBA
Across 323 plate appearances, Manny Machado carries a .184 average versus a .229 xBA. His wOBA sits at .282 against a .310 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
xg_regressionAUS @ PAR
Paraguay are finishing above their chances
Paraguay are scoring 1.0/match on 0.4 xG — 0.6 goals/match above expected across 2 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
cooling_offSEA @ PIT
Luke Raley: .448 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bubba Chandler
Luke Raley's .448 OPS over the last 15 days (26 PA) trails his .785 season mark, down 0.337. Tonight he draws RHP Bubba Chandler — his stronger side: a .830 OPS vs RHP across 184 AB.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkSEA @ PIT
Cole Young: .837 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .837 OPS spans the last 15 days (49 PA) against a .693 season baseline, a 0.144 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
park_weatherSEA @ PIT
Wind blowing out 10 mph at PNC Park tonight
Conditions at PNC Park: Partly Cloudy, 79°, wind 10 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 6 vs 8.5 (over lean)
heat_checkOAK @ SF
Rafael Devers: .912 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 40 PA: a .912 OPS versus .732 for the season, 0.18 above his norm. He has 11 home runs on the season.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offSEA @ PIT
Colt Emerson: .529 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bubba Chandler
Colt Emerson's .529 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .742 season mark, down 0.213. Tonight he draws RHP Bubba Chandler — his stronger side: a .826 OPS vs RHP across 72 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
ballparkGER @ ECU
Ecuador vs Germany: afternoon heat at MetLife Stadium
An open-air 4pm local kickoff at MetLife Stadium — open-air in an exposed Meadowlands bowl. Conditioning is tested when matches are played in the afternoon sun.
ballparkCIV @ CUW
Curaçao vs Côte d'Ivoire: afternoon heat at Lincoln Financial Field
An open-air 4pm local kickoff at Lincoln Financial Field — open-air in a hot mid-Atlantic summer. Conditioning is tested when matches are played in the afternoon sun.
tournamentSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
xg_recapBRA @ SCO
Brazil created the better chances
Brazil led the xG 4.5–1.1 and took the result to match (0–3).
regression_watchHOU @ DET
Troy Melton: 2.56 ERA vs 3.8 xERA
Troy Melton carries a 2.56 ERA against a 3.8 expected ERA (1.24 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .186 off him vs a .242 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
xg_regressionCIV @ CUW
Côte d'Ivoire have created more than they've scored
Côte d'Ivoire are scoring 1.0/match on 1.5 xG — 0.5 goals/match below expected across 2 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
regression_watchOAK @ SF
Tyler Mahle: 5.49 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Tyler Mahle carries a 5.49 ERA against a 4.34 expected ERA (1.15 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .274 off him vs a .250 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
regression_tomorrowHOU @ DET
Spencer Arrighetti: 3.13 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 3.13 ERA against a 4.55 expected ERA (1.42 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .206 vs .238 expected.
starter_formPHI @ WSH
Cristopher Sanchez: 3.38 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18.7 innings, 7 earned runs, 17 hits. That 3.38 ERA runs 1.58 over his 1.80 season number.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
cooling_offATL @ SD
Ty France: .586 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Martin Perez
Ty France's .586 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .749 season mark, down 0.163. Tonight he draws LHP Martin Perez — his weaker side: a .744 OPS vs LHP across 48 AB.
P 2-for-3, 6 TB
starter_formNYY @ BOS
Connelly Early: 5.28 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 5.28 ERA over his last 15.3 innings with a 1.70 WHIP (1.27 season) — the 3.64 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
ballparkNED @ TUN
Tunisia vs Netherlands: rain likely at Arrowhead Stadium
A 63% chance of rain at kickoff — a wet, quick pitch that can swing passing and finishing. Conditions at Arrowhead Stadium: 71°F, 7 mph wind, 63% rain.
running_gameKC @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays like to run — Carter Jensen (37% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen owns a 37% caught-stealing rate (11 of 30) and Tampa Bay Rays run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 1 base
ownedTEX @ TOR
Kevin Gausman vs Joc Pederson: 2-for-17, 7 K
Joc Pederson has managed only 2-for-17 (.118) off Kevin Gausman, striking out 7 times in 17 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 2 BB
xg_recapKOR @ RSA
South Korea dominated the ball but didn't win
South Korea held 68% of possession yet lost to South Africa (1–0) — control without the cutting edge.
regression_tomorrowWSH @ BAL
Trevor Rogers: 5.3 ERA vs 4.19 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 5.3 ERA against a 4.19 expected ERA (1.11 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .262 vs .254 expected.
regression_tomorrowATL @ SF
Reynaldo López: 3.5 ERA vs 4.64 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 3.5 ERA against a 4.64 expected ERA (1.14 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .236 vs .257 expected.
regression_tomorrowMIA @ STL
Max Meyer: 2.8 ERA vs 3.83 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 2.8 ERA against a 3.83 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .210 vs .227 expected.
regression_tomorrowCIN @ PIT
Andrew Abbott: 3.83 ERA vs 4.83 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PIT. A 3.83 ERA against a 4.83 expected ERA (1 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .251 vs .267 expected.
ballpark_shiftSEA @ PIT
Bubba Chandler owns a 5.28 ERA at PNC Park — 4.20 everywhere else
Across 6 games (29 IP) at this venue, Bubba Chandler has a 5.28 ERA against 4.20 at his other parks (45 IP). Hitters bat .227 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
advancementGER @ ECU
Ecuador's route through Group E
The market has Ecuador up against it to reach the last 16 at +250 (3rd, 1 pt).
running_gameSEA @ PIT
Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Mitch Garver has caught just 14%
Pittsburgh Pirates steal 0.9 bags a game (73 on the season) and Mitch Garver has thrown out 4 of 28 runners (14%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowWSH @ BAL
Andrew Alvarez: 3.34 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 3.34 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (0.94 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .264 vs .270 expected.
advancementNED @ TUN
Tunisia's route through Group F
The market has Tunisia up against it to reach the last 16 at +650 (4th, 0 pts).
advancementCIV @ CUW
Côte d'Ivoire hold the edge to advance from Group E
The market has Côte d'Ivoire all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (2nd, 3 pts). Curaçao are +1400 (4th, 1 pt) to join them.
advancementUSA @ TUR
USA hold the edge to advance from Group D
The market has USA all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (1st, 6 pts). Türkiye are -115 (4th, 0 pts) to join them.
advancementSWE @ JPN
Sweden's route through Group F
The market has Sweden all but through to reach the last 16 at -2500 (3rd, 3 pts).
regression_tomorrowTEX @ TOR
Patrick Corbin: 4.73 ERA vs 5.62 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 4.73 ERA against a 5.62 expected ERA (0.89 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .295 vs .293 expected.
regression_tomorrowOAK @ LAA
Walbert Ureña: 2.41 ERA vs 3.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs OAK. A 2.41 ERA against a 3.24 expected ERA (0.83 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .212 vs .203 expected.
ballparkUSA @ TUR
Türkiye vs USA: indoors at SoFi Stadium
SoFi Stadium is a closed-roof venue — canopy roof, climate-managed. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkSWE @ JPN
Japan vs Sweden: indoors at AT&T Stadium
AT&T Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
situationalCôte d'Ivoire @ Curaçao
Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but singo is a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
situationalUSA @ Türkiye
Türkiye v USA: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but akgun is a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
situationalNetherlands @ Tunisia
Tunisia v Netherlands: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but brobbey is a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
first_inningARI @ STL
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
situationalAustralia @ Paraguay
Paraguay v Australia: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.
situationalGermany @ Ecuador
Ecuador v Germany: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.
situationalSweden @ Japan
Japan v Sweden: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.

Graded results

Games

W
Under 3.5 -135
WC · 2-0
W
Tunisia +2.5 -120
WC · 3-1
L
Under 3.5 -125
WC · 3-1
W
Sweden +0.5 -145
WC · 1-1
W
Under 2.5 -115
WC · 1-1
L
Tigers ML -110
MLB · 2-1
W
Phillies ML -180
MLB · 10-5
L
Yankees ML -148
MLB · 3-6
W
Cubs ML -110
MLB · 4-3
W
Draw +130
WC · 0-0
W
Under 1.5 +115
WC · 0-0
W
Türkiye +0.5 +100
WC · 2-3
L
Giants ML -134
MLB · 9-6
L
Under 3.5 -175
WC · 2-3
W
Ecuador +0.5 +135
WC · 1-2
L
Curaçao +1.5 +155
WC · 2-0
L
Mariners ML -146
MLB · 1-5
L
Under 2.5 +125
WC · 1-2
W
Rangers ML +124
MLB · 6-5

Props

W
Alejandro Kirk · under
Rangers @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
L
Ayase Ueda · over
Sweden @ Japan · Actual 1
L
Ayase Ueda · over
Sweden @ Japan · Actual 0
L
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Bo Bichette · over
Cubs @ Mets · Actual 1
W
Brandon Marsh · over
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 5
W
Bryan Reynolds · under
Mariners @ Pirates · Actual 1
L
Casey Schmitt · over
Athletics @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Cody Gakpo · over
Netherlands @ Tunisia · Actual 0
L
Enner Valencia · over
Germany @ Ecuador · Actual 2
L
Hernán Galíndez · over
Germany @ Ecuador · Actual 2
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Rays · Actual 0
W
James Wood · under
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Julio Enciso · over
Australia @ Paraguay · Actual 0
W
Julio Enciso · over
Australia @ Paraguay · Actual 2
W
Juninho Bacuna · under
Côte d'Ivoire @ Curaçao · Actual 1
W
Junior Caminero · over
Royals @ Rays · Actual 3
W
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Rangers @ Blue Jays · Actual 5
W
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Rangers @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
W
Kenji Gorré · under
Côte d'Ivoire @ Curaçao · Actual 0
L
Kevin McGonigle · over
Astros @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Luke Raley · over
Mariners @ Pirates · Actual 1
L
Matt Turner · over
USA @ Türkiye · Actual 0
W
Nick Kurtz · under
Athletics @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Orkun Kökçü · over
USA @ Türkiye · Actual 2
W
Paul Goldschmidt · over
Yankees @ Red Sox · Actual 3
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Mets · Actual 3
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Tijjani Reijnders · over
Netherlands @ Tunisia · Actual 3
W
Willson Contreras · under
Yankees @ Red Sox · Actual 1
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Zion Suzuki · over
Sweden @ Japan · Actual 4